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Thread: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

  1. #1

    Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Live odds currently available on SkyBet have Neil Harris the 1/4 favourite
    5/1 bar
    I just saw Roy Keane buying a prawn sandwich in Asdaís Leckwith.... I was going to have a cheeky tenner lol 😂
    Donít think Iíll bother

  2. #2

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Arenít these markets tiny? Iíd have thought that the odds reflect the betting in many respects. The bookie will want to balance the book so as people lump on Harris, so the odds have to come in. When betting on things like the league winners I imagine that there is so much wagered that the odds wouldnít be massively swayed by big bets but on little things like this I suspect that the betting pattern has quite a big influence.

  3. #3

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Absolutely. The odds are simply installed at the start and go up/down dependent on where people are putting their money.
    If I stuck a grand on Chris Coleman watch his odds get slashed.

  4. #4

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Harris was 2/1 on Monday so the odds suggest somebody somewhere knows heís our next manager doesnít it??

  5. #5

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    I remember when the rumour had shay given as so far odds on even he was convinced he was coming.

  6. #6

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Worst market to bet on. Maybe you can give someone a go if they're outside and then cash out (if you can cash out) or lay when the odds change, but if you're having a punt at 2/1 then you're giving your money away.

  7. #7

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Quote Originally Posted by Padraig1968 View Post
    Harris was 2/1 on Monday so the odds suggest somebody somewhere knows heís our next manager doesnít it??
    Or that heís being bet on by people seeing his short odds...making them shorter

  8. #8

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Quote Originally Posted by lardy View Post
    Worst market to bet on. Maybe you can give someone a go if they're outside and then cash out (if you can cash out) or lay when the odds change, but if you're having a punt at 2/1 then you're giving your money away.
    Like the player transfer markets its all based on rumour in the main. You probably only need a couple of the higher profile social media accounts to get on it and the odds will shorten.

  9. #9

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Quote Originally Posted by Trigger View Post
    Like the player transfer markets its all based on rumour in the main. You probably only need a couple of the higher profile social media accounts to get on it and the odds will shorten.

    Didn't skybet get caught fiddling the market a few months ago? Can't remember what they did, but it was something about sky sports doing some false breaking news in order to get a run going on someone on skybet (which was obviously plastered all over the screens).

    Something like wow he's favourite now and still 12/1 on skybet hurry hurry

  10. #10

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Football betting takes up a lot of my time but I would never place a bet on a new manager market.
    In answer to the question "Do bookies get it wrong?" it depends what is meant by wrong. It is normal to have at least three different names as odds-on favourite before the actual appointment is made. But that is hardly getting it wrong, it's making money. As others have said "new managers" are small markets normally, if a large sum is staked (or more likely attempted to be staked but a smaller sum accepted) the bookmakers will soon reduce the odds drastically or stop taking bets suspecting someone really does know something.
    So far Neil Harris has been the only odds-on favourite and he may well be the new Cardiff City Manager, but if he is it will be a rare occurrence of a man leading the betting all the way. More often a name from the pack or even a name no-one has mentioned comes through to get the job. Here's hoping it's Mr Craig Bellamy.

  11. #11

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Quote Originally Posted by Padraig1968 View Post
    Harris was 2/1 on Monday so the odds suggest somebody somewhere knows he’s our next manager doesn’t it??
    Did you read any of the other comments in this post?

  12. #12

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Seeing as it is only Skybet that are quoting it means nothing. If you was to stick more than a 100 on that the odds would be slashed. (and they'd probably limit your stakes if it won). The truest reflection is normally found on the exchanges such as betfair but there is no market there right now. Only got to look at the 16million on Harry Rednapp to go to Pompey when Warnock was the bookies favourite.

  13. #13

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Quote Originally Posted by ivandobsky View Post
    Seeing as it is only Skybet that are quoting it means nothing. If you was to stick more than a 100 on that the odds would be slashed. (and they'd probably limit your stakes if it won). The truest reflection is normally found on the exchanges such as betfair but there is no market there right now. Only got to look at the 16million on Harry Rednapp to go to Pompey when Warnock was the bookies favourite.
    There are real questions about how sky can operate a bookies and various media outlets without a conflict of interests.

    Talksport - also owned by news corp? Have stated numerous times that Harris is the front runner or hinted even more strongly than that

  14. #14

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Quote Originally Posted by ROKERITE View Post
    Football betting takes up a lot of my time but I would never place a bet on a new manager market.
    In answer to the question "Do bookies get it wrong?" it depends what is meant by wrong. It is normal to have at least three different names as odds-on favourite before the actual appointment is made. But that is hardly getting it wrong, it's making money. As others have said "new managers" are small markets normally, if a large sum is staked (or more likely attempted to be staked but a smaller sum accepted) the bookmakers will soon reduce the odds drastically or stop taking bets suspecting someone really does know something.
    So far Neil Harris has been the only odds-on favourite and he may well be the new Cardiff City Manager, but if he is it will be a rare occurrence of a man leading the betting all the way. More often a name from the pack or even a name no-one has mentioned comes through to get the job. Here's hoping it's Mr Craig Bellamy.
    Interesting thread and interesting response. How did harris even start as the favourite? How do they decide if mark hughes or chris hughton are more likely? My guess is they havent actually got a clue?

  15. #15

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    They don't need to have a clue, especially with the size of the overround on these types of market. They just need to make sure the book balances which is why the odds get slashed if someone lumps a sum on one candidate. Also it's the sort of market where someone might actually know the answer so I suspect you get limited to quite small stakes too

  16. #16

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    There was a 66/1 chance for Jose to come here and 25/1 for a Malky return.

    Hope this answers the original question

  17. #17

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    I tried to chuck £30 on Bellamy @ 25/1 on Coral and they limited me to £8.08, they’re guessing same as us which is why they are always ultra cautious in laying bets on these markets.

  18. #18

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Bowyer's odds are down to 5/2, he was 6/1 this morning. Hughton has driftedfrom 6/1 to 8/1 too. Harris still 1/3 favourite.

    Sounds like no one other than the 2 favourites are in the frame according to the bookies atm.

  19. #19

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    I was on Asda earlier and I bumped into William Hill.



    What are the odds of that happening?

  20. #20

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sir Sidney Ruff-Diamond View Post
    I was on Asda earlier and I bumped into William Hill.



    What are the odds of that happening?
    Pretty high if you were up on top of a roof.

  21. #21

    Re: Do bookies get it wrong.....?

    We were one of the favourites for promotion at the start of the season, so yes, they do get things quite wrong!

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