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Thread: Coronavirus update

  1. #871

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    https://twitter.com/who/status/12170...761152?lang=en

    Yep you're right, it's a shame the Chinese government won't get half the grief they deserve for this.
    That's the problem, it imo would have caused massive social disorder and disobediance to have had any semblance of lockdown back in Jan based upon that WHO information, which is what governments would have had to go on.

    Even looking at February, people were still trying to get that meaningful information about the transmission and nature of the virus.

  2. #872

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    That's the problem, it imo would have caused massive social disorder and disobediance to have had any semblance of lockdown back in Jan based upon that WHO information, which is what governments would have had to go on.

    Even looking at February, people were still trying to get that meaningful information about the transmission and nature of the virus.
    Denmark went into lockdown on 11th March. There had only been 8 more deaths in the UK at that time, with the first death in the UK just 5 days prior. There have now (as of yesterday) been 1700 more deaths in the UK than Denmark with the difference currently growing by hundreds each day. Denmark is now considering reopening its economy gradually after Easter.

    Makes you wonder how much of an impact applying restictions here just a couple of weeks earlier would have made.

  3. #873

    Re: Coronavirus update

    The number of people who have died from coronavirus in the UK has risen by 563 to 2,353 in total, the Department for Health and Social Care has said.

    The latest figures mark the biggest day on day increase in the country since the pandemic began.

    The Department for Health confirmed this afternoon that 29,474 people have tested positive for coronavirus within the UK - an increase of 4,324 from yesterday. The Department has also clarified that UK's testing capacity is currently 12,799 tests per day.
    Makes you wonder how bad it could have been.

  4. #874

    Re: Coronavirus update

    I think that it was generally expected that this was going to be a bad week in terms of deaths and new cases and, after a few days when it looked like things may be peaking, the last two have been more in line with expectations, Nevertheless, I think I'm right in saying that in places like Italy and Spain the new cases rate was doubling every two or three days at the same sort of stage as we are and that's certainly not happening here lately.

  5. #875

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Baloo View Post
    Denmark went into lockdown on 11th March. There had only been 8 more deaths in the UK at that time, with the first death in the UK just 5 days prior. There have now (as of yesterday) been 1700 more deaths in the UK than Denmark with the difference currently growing by hundreds each day. Denmark is now considering reopening its economy gradually after Easter.

    Makes you wonder how much of an impact applying restictions here just a couple of weeks earlier would have made.
    Denmark's population is 5.8m.

    UK, at around 66m has higher fatality count than a far, far smaller nation shocker.

  6. #876

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    Denmark's population is 5.8m.

    UK, at around 66m has higher fatality count than a far, far smaller nation shocker.
    What about the rate though? It should be scalable surely.

  7. #877

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    What about the rate though? It should be scalable surely.
    UK death rate = 35/million population, Denmark = 18/million.

    Can't really compare like for like cases as we don't know Denmark's testing scheme.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  8. #878

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dwr View Post
    UK death rate = 35/million population, Denmark = 18/million.

    Can't really compare like for like cases as we don't know Denmark's testing scheme.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    Equally, locking down a far smaller nation is a lot "easier".

  9. #879

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    Denmark's population is 5.8m.

    UK, at around 66m has higher fatality count than a far, far smaller nation shocker.
    So you believe that just by comparing populations we can conclude that locking down when the UK had only 8 deaths would have made no difference?

  10. #880

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Baloo View Post
    So you believe that just by comparing populations we can conclude that locking down when the UK had only 8 deaths would have made no difference?
    And do you believe people would have obeyed with just 8 deaths? There are many factors at play, it's overly simplistic and naive to say "ooooh we should've locked down at point X".

  11. #881

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Dwr View Post
    UK death rate = 35/million population, Denmark = 18/million.

    Can't really compare like for like cases as we don't know Denmark's testing scheme.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
    At this point in time but the gap is widening. The UK had nearly 40 times as many deaths as Denmark today.

    I appreciate the demographics are different. My point was really whether a couple of weeks could have made a big difference to the outlook for the UK with the benefit of hindsight.

  12. #882

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Well, we were told testing was the answer, Germany had a 25% increase yesterday alone.

    There's zero hindsight at this point whatsoever.

  13. #883

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    And do you believe people would have obeyed with just 8 deaths? There are many factors at play, it's overly simplistic and naive to say "ooooh we should've locked down at point X".
    I'm sorry I don't understand all of this like you do. The question of timing interventions has been a constant discussion point so wondering whether whether we chose the optimal time to minimise deaths is a reasonable question I think. Just insisting we wouldn't have obeyed isn't really a conclusive answer.

  14. #884
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    Re: Coronavirus update

    They just mentioned on the briefing about an apparent inclrease in car use indicating people were beginning to move about more in London.
    I live very close to a major junction in Cardiff (Less than 100 m) and I have noticed an increase in the last copuple of days and most of it is cars not delivery trucks or stuff like that. It hasn't been that far below normal today.
    I wonder when the police are going to start spot checking motorists.

  15. #885

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Baloo View Post
    I'm sorry I don't understand all of this like you do. The question of timing interventions has been a constant discussion point so wondering whether whether we chose the optimal time to minimise deaths is a reasonable question I think. Just insisting we wouldn't have obeyed isn't really a conclusive answer.
    I think a sizeable number wouldn't have, more than now. Some need things to hit close to home to grasp that at times.

    Recommendations changed to "you must" was a reasonable way of approaching things because it showed the effects of people ignoring...

  16. #886

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    Yet Imperial College London report claimed we got out timings right.

    IMO, if lockdown had been ordered day 1, there would have been mass protests and disobedience. Instead it's been recommended to stay home - as people have then abused it, it's been "locked down". I suspect most Brits will accept that given the "nice" approach being abused. Some will always disobey.
    That isn't the timeline, there was a period of time where there were no restrictions and the government wouldn't even give advice around contact reducing measures.

    For a few weeks their whole schtick was to go on telly looking like a bunch of gimps telling everybody that if they washed their hands everything would be fine. Then they got some scary data and decided to tell everybody their grandparents would die. After they pivoted to some level of suppression and within a few days we had a lockdown.

    Everything could have been done sooner and less erratically.

    Justifying the course of action taken with this crystal ball shite about riots is just desperate.

  17. #887

    Re: Coronavirus update

    The rise in German figures puts them between 4-6 days behind us. If that's truly the case then their testing bought them time lag, nothing else.

  18. #888

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    I think a sizeable number wouldn't have, more than now. Some need things to hit close to home to grasp that at times.

    Recommendations changed to "you must" was a reasonable way of approaching things because it showed the effects of people ignoring...
    OK, if everybody or most obeyed do you think it would have made a difference if we were told to stay at home a couple of weeks earlier?

  19. #889

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    That isn't the timeline, there was a period of time where there were no restrictions and the government wouldn't even give advice around contact reducing measures.

    For a few weeks their whole schtick was to go on telly looking like a bunch of gimps telling everybody that if they washed their hands everything would be fine. Then they got some scary data and decided to tell everybody their grandparents would die. After they pivoted to some level of suppression and within a few days we had a lockdown.

    Everything could have been done sooner and less erratically.

    Justifying the course of action taken with this crystal ball shite about riots is just desperate.
    The whole nature of the virus wasn't known at that point, was it? It's desperate shite to claim everything would be hunky dory if everything was shut down straight away.

  20. #890

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Baloo View Post
    OK, if everybody or most obeyed do you think it would have made a difference if we were told to stay at home a couple of weeks earlier?
    I doubt it tbh. I think it would have pushed the problem further down the year, worst case scenario this occurring in Winter.

  21. #891

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    And do you believe people would have obeyed with just 8 deaths? There are many factors at play, it's overly simplistic and naive to say "ooooh we should've locked down at point X".
    The majority of people saying it now, were saying it then too. Just because you have suddenly appeared from nowhere doesn't mean everyone else did. There was a long thread on the politics board way before it was brought onto here.

  22. #892

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    The majority of people saying it now, were saying it then too. Just because you have suddenly appeared from nowhere doesn't mean everyone else did. There was a long thread on the politics board way before it was brought onto here.
    Sorry, must remember not to comment when there are such longstanding, well esteemed posters such as yourself.

    People may well have been saying it then - been long time lurker by the way, tend to avoid politics board - doesn't mean it was right then. If anything, people would have been making that request with even less information than is available now.

  23. #893

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    The whole nature of the virus wasn't known at that point, was it? It's desperate shite to claim everything would be hunky dory if everything was shut down straight away.
    We knew who it was more dangerous to and we knew that it was contagious. Vulnerable people weren't even told they needed to behave differently to non-vulnerable people until the middle of last month.

  24. #894

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    Sorry, must remember not to comment when there are such longstanding, well esteemed posters such as yourself.

    People may well have been saying it then - been long time lurker by the way, tend to avoid politics board - doesn't mean it was right then. If anything, people would have been making that request with even less information than is available now.
    Talk about deliberate misinterpretation, i am just telling you that you cant accuse someone of being wise after the fact if they have been consistent throughout so your first method of attack for most of those who disagree with you on here is invalid.

    It appears there are literally are no parameters to hold the government to account on coronavirus then? Everything would have always been worse had they done anything differently therefore everything they did will always be perfect. I wish my boss judged my performance at work using this methodology.

  25. #895

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    The majority of people saying it now, were saying it then too. Just because you have suddenly appeared from nowhere doesn't mean everyone else did. There was a long thread on the politics board way before it was brought onto here.
    My employer, I think like most others, was following govenment advice so we were removed from the crowded London commuter run as soon as instructed. It wasn't down to whether we felt like obeying it or not as the office was shut. It's not just about people wanting a drive out to the countryside etc.

  26. #896

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    Talk about deliberate misinterpretation, i am just telling you that you cant accuse someone of being wise after the fact if they have been consistent throughout so your first method of attack for most of those who disagree with you on here is invalid.

    It appears there are literally are no parameters to hold the government to account on coronavirus then? Everything would have always been worse had they done anything differently therefore everything they did will always be perfect. I wish my boss judged my performance at work using this methodology.
    Well, it seems you want to find anything to hold the government to account tbh. Not quite sure why that is but hey ho.

    You seem to want your boss to judge your performance on a task during the early / mid stages of the task rather than at the end, which would be a tad silly.

    Now, we were told testing was the answer, as per Germany. Latest figures show Germany may be 4-6 days behind us. If that's the case and Germany show similar figures then all it's really bought them is a time lag.

    The time to apportion blame is afterwards, with facts and hindsight.

  27. #897

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    Well, it seems you want to find anything to hold the government to account tbh. Not quite sure why that is but hey ho.

    You seem to want your boss to judge your performance on a task during the early / mid stages of the task rather than at the end, which would be a tad silly.

    Now, we were told testing was the answer, as per Germany. Latest figures show Germany may be 4-6 days behind us. If that's the case and Germany show similar figures then all it's really bought them is a time lag.

    The time to apportion blame is afterwards, with facts and hindsight.
    Have you ever had a job? Yes of course projects are monitored, assessed and reported on throughout.

    You will be on another account by then.

  28. #898

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    Have you ever had a job? Yes of course projects are monitored, assessed and reported on throughout.

    You will be on another account by then.
    Monitored, assessed, reported on sure. Determining course of action based on woefully incomplete information? Works for you, I guess.
    Ooooh, I'm a multi, eh? Some would think only those with a multi would make that incorrect assumption. Not me, though.

  29. #899

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    Talk about deliberate misinterpretation, i am just telling you that you cant accuse someone of being wise after the fact if they have been consistent throughout so your first method of attack for most of those who disagree with you on here is invalid.

    It appears there are literally are no parameters to hold the government to account on coronavirus then? Everything would have always been worse had they done anything differently therefore everything they did will always be perfect. I wish my boss judged my performance at work using this methodology.
    With the benefit of hindsight, the decision to go ahead with the Cheltenham festival looks like lunacy, but, even at the time, I'm sure I wasn't the only one who was questioning it. The Government could have stepped in and ordered it to be abandoned, but I suppose that was back in the "herd mentality" days.

  30. #900

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    Well, it seems you want to find anything to hold the government to account tbh. Not quite sure why that is but hey ho.

    You seem to want your boss to judge your performance on a task during the early / mid stages of the task rather than at the end, which would be a tad silly.

    Now, we were told testing was the answer, as per Germany. Latest figures show Germany may be 4-6 days behind us. If that's the case and Germany show similar figures then all it's really bought them is a time lag.

    The time to apportion blame is afterwards, with facts and hindsight.
    To be fair, I'm really not sure what the difference is between suggesting an earlier lockdown would have been optimal to insisiting that it wouldn't have worked as people wouldn't have obeyed it. Neither view is based on facts or ultimate hindsight.

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