Seems so. 3 weeks behind. So the effect of stay alert wont be know for a while.Originally Posted by tell it like it is
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Seems so. 3 weeks behind. So the effect of stay alert wont be know for a while.
They just said on the news that the R rate is based on figures from over a week ago, so if the rate goes up to 1 tomorrow it is a reflection of then not today. God knows how they will explain that when people start panicking.
Just read an article that said the U of Cambridge estimate that the rise in R rate lags 3 weeks behind and that the rise is due to Greater testing in Care homes whilst the number is dropping in the general community, which gives the government more room for manouvre.
The natural R rate of the virus is between 2 and 3. It will take significant effort to keep it below 1. It will take no effort to see it above 1, and heading above 2.
What's you point beside showing your innate higher intellect?
My point is that it has taken 8 weeks of monumental efforts to get the R rate down below 1. Interestingly, the subject of a lag wasn't mentioned when the rate was 0.5-0.9! It was offered as definitive proof of us coming out of the peak, and giving the message of "stay alert".
Now, about these pubs....
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