Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[the other bob wilson]

That would explain Trump's carefully considered view about opening up the US for business again. What a position to be in, either he will go down in history as being one of the greatest presidents ever for saving America, or he will be remembered as the mad fool who destroyed America.

Today's UK deaths figure makes that tweet you post looked way overoptimistic.

[Wales-Bales]

Today's UK deaths figure makes that tweet you post looked way overoptimistic.

We are depending on those people to be right, so let's just hope that they are

[the other bob wilson]

We are depending on those people to be right, so let's just hope that they are

Agreed, but it's going to depend on how well observed the lockdown and social isolation are - here's the post I made few days back which I think shows how both very high and very low estimates could be proved completely wrong;-

http://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php...very-effective

[tell it like it is]

Agreed, but it's going to depend on how well observed the lockdown and social isolation are - here's the post I made few days back which I think shows how both very high and very low estimates could be proved completely wrong;-

http://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php...very-effective

Even that image is a gross simplification. It implies people only have one potential source of infection. The way that's presented, a 1 to 1 relationship means that knocking one "source" out ( by isolating ) prevents others along that source tree further down the line getting it. It's nowhere near as simple as that.

[tell it like it is]

Agreed, but it's going to depend on how well observed the lockdown and social isolation are - here's the post I made few days back which I think shows how both very high and very low estimates could be proved completely wrong;-

http://www.ccmb.co.uk/showthread.php...very-effective

Even that image is a gross simplification. It implies people only have one potential source of infection. The way that's presented, a 1 to 1 relationship means that knocking one "source" out ( by isolating ) prevents others along that source tree further down the line getting it. It's nowhere near as simple as that.

[the other bob wilson]

Even that image is a gross simplification. It implies people only have one potential source of infection. The way that's presented, a 1 to 1 relationship means that knocking one "source" out ( by isolating ) prevents others along that source tree further down the line getting it. It's nowhere near as simple as that.

It's supposed to get a message across, not be an exact replica of what will happen and it's very effective at doing that.

[tell it like it is]

It's supposed to get a message across, not be an exact replica of what will happen and it's very effective at doing that.

The point being that message isn't the complete one. It ignores the reality that most people have probably had the virus by now too.

[the other bob wilson]

The point being that message isn't the complete one. It ignores the reality that most people have probably had the virus by now too.

How do we know that?

[Hilts]

The point being that message isn't the complete one. It ignores the reality that most people have probably had the virus by now too.

Over 100,000 people tested. Over 11,000 positive.

While its obvious that there are more walking around with it there is no way most people have had it. Not even close.

In my opinion of course.