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What did Matt Hancock mean in today's briefing when he said we need to really focus on the R rate for the country as a whole before potentially applying localised lockdown measures? He seemed to say it every time it was mentioned that R may be over 1 again in certain regions. Not having a dig just couldn't follow this point which he made several times.
I think what he meant was that they get information form a lot of different sources and have to put it all together and find a common way forward. If for example it's 1.1 in liverpool them presumably it is lower somewhere else. That's not a lot of comfort to liverpudlians but I think they also consider the falling infection rate and stuff like that when they consider regional actions.Originally Posted by Baloo
I thought he said the R was between .7 and .9 all over the Uk and so I assumed that what he meant was that, as long as that was the case, there was no need for localised lockdowns, but he seemed somewhat distracted throughout the briefing to me and so I might have got the wrong end of the stick.I think what he meant was that they get information form a lot of different sources and have to put it all together and find a common way forward. If for example it's 1.1 in liverpool them presumably it is lower somewhere else. That's not a lot of comfort to liverpudlians but I think they also consider the falling infection rate and stuff like that when they consider regional actions.
I wasn't sure myself. What I posted is what I "think" he meant. But I don't believe they'd knowing let the R go up to 1.3 or whatever number which would cause everything to go tits up. Even the government can't be that stupid. Can they????
I missed it today, but if he did say that he is contradicting the government message from earlier in the week. Regional R rates seem to be significant or not depending on the political priority of the day!
Not really. The 7% figure is obtained from recent anti-body tests, and those tests included people who reported no symptoms. The 70% figure would suggest that 4.9% of the population have had covid-19 with no symptoms, and 2.1% have had the virus and reported symptoms.
If you look at today’s graphs showing the number of people in hospital suffering with COVID19, the data for Wales show that the end of the curve has been flat for the last 3 -4 weeks (difficult to be precise as the x axis is not fully annotated). Indeed it looks like there might even be an increase at the end whereas every other region has the curve continuing to fall. Not a good sign I would have thought? No-one from the media has commented on this as far as I know.
Source: https://assets.publishing.service.go...with_Annex.pdf
This is a really informative website from the University of Cambridge study. It is only for England but the summaries are really informative and the stats and graphs likewise. Things like the estimate that 16% of 5-14 year olds in England have been infected but just 0.001% of those infected (IFR) have died compared with only 3% of over 75 year old being infected but of those 23% have died. Nothing new in terms of what we have been told around the disproportionate impact on the young and old but stark when you see the supporting statistics.
Similarly there are some informative graphs tracking the R rate particularly around key points of changes in Government Policy in England. The massive falls in R just after the lockdown and the increases as policies were softened on May 12th with attendant increased likelihood that R is above 1 by English Region as we move towards the 1 June additional softening where there is no data yet.
https://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
Things looking good in Germany and Italy now as things have opened, as did schools in France a month ago....
Not sure what point you are making. Are you saying that the R rate and number of daily infections in Germany and Italy was the same as ours when they took comparable measures to ease the lockdown therefore we have strong evidence from elsewhere that we will see similar results?
If he is saying that, then he is wrong. The R rate in Germany was at 0.65 when the lockdown was announced.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...st-in-six-days
https://public.flourish.studio/visua...sation/2720245
....
Yes.
Yes.
R in Wales is 0.8 according to this - or was a short while ago;-
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52944037
Which is good, only 11 confirmed cases in Cardiff too, most of which were either in hospitals or care homes app
Where do you get that info from? I can never find anything like that when I google for Welsh figures.
Insider knowledge bit like the inner circle used to be
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https://twitter.com/apexworldnews/st...16865517928448
Never ever, ever try to jump traffic lights.
Somebody chucked a brick at the horse mate.
I’m exercising my right of free speech with a hint of interpreting what is put before me, as you’re a fan of Trump I thought you’d appreciate this more than anyone.
Not really a fan of Trump per se, but I did find the internatinal plot to overthrow him quite interesting. However, I draw the line at chucking bricks at horses, as that is going outside the rules of engagement. That poor police woman could have easily been killed due to the stupidity of some idiots.I’m exercising my right of free speech with a hint of interpreting what is put before me, as you’re a fan of Trump I thought you’d appreciate this more than anyone.
What is that to do do with coronavirus ?
The protest was declared illegal by the chief of police, who is also enforcing social distancing regulations in London. I'll let you work out the rest of it.
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