Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[CCFCC3PO]

Yes, that has happened in the past and I've read on a few occasions experts saying that it is best for the virus' long term survival for it to become something that can find human hosts without killing as many of them. Hopefully, that will happen again this time, but, for now, while it is good news that not as many as might have been expected are dying in America, it seems to me that there are more credible reasons as to why this is the case than it being down to the virus mutating into something less harmful to us. Wouldn't such a mutation take longer than a few months?

In my opinion it is very difficult to glean anything from just looking at number of cases vs number of deaths. Firstly, each country uses different ways of recording cases and/or deaths. Secondly, each country tests subjects based on differing criteria. Lastly, even looking at some countries in isolation, their methods of testing and recording have differed over time.

In the UK, initially only people who were sick were being tested. Now, people are being tested for various reasons. My partner is getting tested weekly as a care worker.

The data I tend to look at is the data provided by the ONS which is extrapolated from various sources of data.

One other thing that I think may be causing a more favourable death to case ratio is that I think those people who are more susceptible to getting seriously sick have changed their behaviour over time. Care homes are being better protected than they once were, for example.

[the other bob wilson]

In my opinion it is very difficult to glean anything from just looking at number of cases vs number of deaths. Firstly, each country uses different ways of recording cases and/or deaths. Secondly, each country tests subjects based on differing criteria. Lastly, even looking at some countries in isolation, their methods of testing and recording have differed over time.

In the UK, initially only people who were sick were being tested. Now, people are being tested for various reasons. My partner is getting tested weekly as a care worker.

The data I tend to look at is the data provided by the ONS which is extrapolated from various sources of data.

One other thing that I think may be causing a more favourable death to case ratio is that I think those people who are more susceptible to getting seriously sick have changed their behaviour over time. Care homes are being better protected than they once were, for example.

It is entirely possible to get an idea of what is happening if you only look at the outcomes in one country which, presumably, has been using the same or similar methods of compiling new cases and deaths figures. That's why I limited my comments to America where it's clear that more new cases than ever in June and July running into August has not resulted in the level of deaths seen back in March/April when the New York region took the brunt of the hit from the virus.

It seems unlikely to me that there is one reason alone for this disparity - an American equivalent of the care homes situation in the UK may be one of them and other possibilities have been mentioned earlier, with the possibility that the virus is losing some of its potency being one of them. As I mentioned, I find it more likely that the difference is down to the virus generally affecting younger people than before, but I may well be wrong.

[goats]

It is entirely possible to get an idea of what is happening if you only look at the outcomes in one country which, presumably, has been using the same or similar methods of compiling new cases and deaths figures. That's why I limited my comments to America where it's clear that more new cases than ever in June and July running into August has not resulted in the level of deaths seen back in March/April when the New York region took the brunt of the hit from the virus.

It seems unlikely to me that there is one reason alone for this disparity - an American equivalent of the care homes situation in the UK may be one of them and other possibilities have been mentioned earlier, with the possibility that the virus is losing some of its potency being one of them. As I mentioned, I find it more likely that the difference is down to the virus generally affecting younger people than before, but I may well be wrong.

Read somewhere bob that the average age of those testing positive in Florida recently was 36, so far younger than in the peak when it was double that. I guess with such a young average they are getting it and surviving also.

[Heisenberg]

With regard to this virus I have still not seen any reasoning behind the apparent fact that cases are rising but the deaths aren't, or at least not so much, except for the opinion that the virus may be mutating in order to not kill it's host, as clearly that is counter productive for it.
The problem with that is that if its true will the lack of high death numbers make the search for a vaccine less urgent in chemists minds.

Haven't they stopped providing the full data on Covid deaths since July 17th as they are "investigating" how they will be recording them in future... Or have I got that totally wrong?

Also, I've no idea how much it would be affecting the numbers but I wonder whether the fact that most care homes are still in some sort of lockdown are having an impact on the number of deaths at present.

A large number of deaths were attributed to untested patients being transferred to care homes, so I would suggest that's it's a factor in the current numbers. If it started spreading through care homes again then I think we would be seeing a much higher death rate. Thankfully, that doesn't look like happening.

[xsnaggle]

Haven't they stopped providing the full data on Covid deaths since July 17th as they are "investigating" how they will be recording them in future... Or have I got that totally wrong?

Also, I've no idea how much it would be affecting the numbers but I wonder whether the fact that most care homes are still in some sort of lockdown are having an impact on the number of deaths at present.

A large number of deaths were attributed to untested patients being transferred to care homes, so I would suggest that's it's a factor in the current numbers. If it started spreading through care homes again then I think we would be seeing a much higher death rate. Thankfully, that doesn't look like happening.

The government web page with the graphs we all learned to know and love has stopped updating but the numbers are still reported daily.

[the other bob wilson]

Daily UK new cases and deaths figures can be found here;-

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

[the other bob wilson]

On the subject of anti vaxers, I find the result of this poll both incredible and depressing;-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...19-vaccination

[CCFCC3PO]

On the subject of anti vaxers, I find the result of this poll both incredible and depressing;-

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...19-vaccination

I am not anti-vaccination by any stretch of the imagination, but I am sure I would be less enthusiastic to take a vaccine that was only 50-60% effective in trials (I probably would still take it mind). If the vaccine only provided protection for a few months, I'd be in two minds. So, if I was asked in that survey, I probably wouldn't be in the half of Britons who would definitely have the vaccine - purely because of a lack of detail at the present moment.

[the other bob wilson]

I am not anti-vaccination by any stretch of the imagination, but I am sure I would be less enthusiastic to take a vaccine that was only 50-60% effective in trials (I probably would still take it mind). If the vaccine only provided protection for a few months, I'd be in two minds. So, if I was asked in that survey, I probably wouldn't be in the half of Britons who would definitely have the vaccine - purely because of a lack of detail at the present moment.

I qualify for a flu vaccine every year and have had one for what must be close to ten years now. Each time I have one, I know that it doesn't guarantee that I will be free from flu over the next year and that there may be side effects that leave me feeling very poorly for a while. Seems to me that the benefits still well outweigh the risks when it comes to an annual flu jab and, given the stats on COVID for people of my age, the same would appear to be the case but even more so with that.

Any harmful side effects from a Covid vaccine would have to be very serious for me to contemplate not having one and you would have thought that, if that were the case, it would not be approved for general use - even if it was only 50/60 per cent effective, I don't get why anyone would turn it down.

[CCFCC3PO]

I qualify for a flu vaccine every year and have had one for what must be close to ten years now. Each time I have one, I know that it doesn't guarantee that I will be free from flu over the next year and that there may be side effects that leave me feeling very poorly for a while. Seems to me that the benefits still well outweigh the risks when it comes to an annual flu jab and, given the stats on COVID for people of my age, the same would appear to be the case but even more so with that.

Any harmful side effects from a Covid vaccine would have to be very serious for me to contemplate not having one and you would have thought that, if that were the case, it would not be approved for general use - even if it was only 50/60 per cent effective, I don't get why anyone would turn it down.

It would, maybe, depend on side effects if any. Personally, the only thing that could potentially hold me back is if the vaccine was only effective for a short amount of time. If a vaccine was effective for 1 year and there was a global effort to vaccinate as many people as possible then, even with the anti-vaxxers, the virus would be pretty much beat in a few cycles. If it was only effective for a few months, then poorer nations would forever be at the mercy of the disease. However, saying that, even a vaccine that lasted a short amount of time would be a significant step forward.

[the other bob wilson]

New infections up to more than a thousand in a day in the UK for the first time since June.

[xsnaggle]

New infections up to more than a thousand in a day in the UK for the first time since June.

But I think in most cases they are in hot spots and the powers that be know where and are dee-aling with them

[lisvaneblue]

New infections up to more than a thousand in a day in the UK for the first time since June.

And closer to home Cardiff had 7 cases yesterday, 13 in the last 7 days. Its on the up and when the detail is published I bet a lot of it resulting from the crowds in Cardiff Bay

[xsnaggle]

But deaths yesterday for UK are put at 8. I know it's the weekend but it is still low compared with the apparent rise in confirmed cases.
See how the total pans out by tuesday when all the weekend figures should kick in.

[Madassa]

But deaths yesterday for UK are put at 8. I know it's the weekend but it is still low compared with the apparent rise in confirmed cases.
See how the total pans out by tuesday when all the weekend figures should kick in.

Deaths lag new infections.

[xsnaggle]

Deaths lag new infections.

Clearly you have to be infected before you die but there have been reports of a rise (spike) in infections for some time but no equivalent rise in deaths, lagging behind or otherwise. I just hope it continues.

[CCFCC3PO]

https://theconversation.com/does-cor...j9tDcqh9ODQBfg

[the other bob wilson]

Hardly what you'd expect from a "world beating" test and trace system is it?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...regional-teams

At least this Government that wants to centralise like no other in recent memory has finally bowed to what it has been told by people who know about the subject better than they do for months - there was a locally based system already in place which should have been utilised far more than it has been. The last thing Johnson and co want is a return to the national lockdown seen in the spring, hence the emphasis on dealing with "hotspots" on a local level and yet they still wanted to run the whole thing from London while, essentially, ignoring local advice.

[CCFCC3PO]

Hardly what you'd expect from a "world beating" test and trace system is it?

https://www.theguardian.com/society/...regional-teams

At least this Government that wants to centralise like no other in recent memory has finally bowed to what it has been told by people who know about the subject better than they do for months - there was a locally based system already in place which should have been utilised far more than it has been. The last thing Johnson and co want is a return to the national lockdown seen in the spring, hence the emphasis on dealing with "hotspots" on a local level and yet they still wanted to run the whole thing from London while, essentially, ignoring local advice.

Some will say that it is "common sense at last", but this is clearly an admission of failure. I think there is genuine concern from Johnson (self-concern, but concern nonetheless) that schools will be unable to fully reopen in England in September.

I suspect that, in light of the bad news, the number of anti-immigration posts will increase on Social Media to divert people's attentions away from the failings of the Government.

[Hilts]

4 new cases in NZ.

[Bluebina]

Putin has registered a vaccine and tested it on his daughter, she's still alive so they are going ahead by the looks of things.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-given-it.html

[CCFCC3PO]

Putin has registered a vaccine and tested it on his daughter, she's still alive so they are going ahead by the looks of things.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-given-it.html

The glory of the anti-vaxxers if (when) this vaccine turns out to be crap will be unbearable.

[the other bob wilson]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ernment-target

[CCFCC3PO]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ernment-target

Compare that to the reaction of the NZ Government following 4 new cases.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...-days-12047011

[CCFCC3PO]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ernment-target

Missed the target again today. Maybe it will be easier to say when they do hit the target.

French PM says covid war going wrong way with 1,397 cases. Johnson says nothing with 1,148 cases.