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wheres the god nut guy and all his out pouring bollox now...
Living in London and have been completely banned from the office now, all the gyms I use have been closed and I assume all bars and restuarants to follow.
My dad’s funeral tomorrow. We have had to cancel the wake in the local pub. I never thought it would come to this. This has been a dreadful year and it’s still only March.
My work involves research into healthcare organisations - we've been told today that it's clear that there will be major restrictions until the end of 2020 and possibly until March/April 2021...
Really sorry to hear this. I hope it goes as well as it can tomorrow.
Thanks for the insight. However, depending on the level of restriction - it seems unlikely that it could be enforceable for that long doesn't it? People won't be that selfless for that long. Everyone knows that panic buying is going to worsen things, but the supermarkets are full of selfish dickheads buying sacks of pasta, and this is while everything is still functioning as normal. I like to think I am a good guy, but 12 months effectively imprisoned in my own home? I'm not sure I could take that. But then the entire plan is to lengthen it so that it's manageable, so I am sure you are right.
The world needs a pause button if we are all electing to stop economic activity for 12 months though. This would be impossible to implement for about a gazillion reasons, but we would need to freeze interest on all debt; freeze rent and mortgage payments. Keep vital public services going, and allow private sector to choose between fighting on, or shutting up shop for a year with guaranteed return to work rights for employees and contractors, who in the meantime work for the public sector on fixed pay doing whatever it is that needs doing so we can all go back to normal (or perhaps a slightly more cooperative social version of normal). It would be more complex than Brexit and feel a lot like war. But the alternative would be what? How many businesses or people can survive a year of nothing?
Everything - and I mean literally everything to with a Nation's fiscal balance sheet which includes taxation, employment, all business whatever size - is critically dependent on it's citizens spending money on goods and services. I'm not an economist but I can well believe a month's inactivity will render 50% of UK business in dire straights, and 50% closed down. Extrapolate that to '14 weeks', and there will be very little left of our - or any- western economy. In addidtion the Govt. will need to put close to a £trillion into the economy, social care/services/relief payments etc., whilst losing a massive chunk of it's income from taxation and corporation taxes etc. Coupled with the fact that businesses trying to borrow to stay afloat won't get anything from the Banks, and larger, stock quoted businesses will be so worthless based on share price that they will also find it difficult. And let's not get started on the Banks themsleves.
Last night I looked at Boris as he delivered his update. He didn't looked worried - he looked scared..
They did a good job of pretending that today was all part of the plan but the report by the imperial college covid-19 response team paints a different picture.
A timeline of Trump's response to the virus
https://twitter.com/IntoTheVoid001/s...184108033?s=20
This is all completely crazy isn't it? I have been told not to come in to work tomorrow, and I imagine it will be months not weeks before we go back.
Meantime, collective idiocy and greed causes people to over-buy everything putting strain on supermarkets, while almost all of the rest of retail, restaurants, pubs and entertainment has in a matter of weeks taken a very sharp lurch towards insolvency. Airlines won't survive, nor will a lot of tour operators. Stock markets are falling in a manner rarely seen before.
And - statistically speaking - nothing has even happened yet. 1 in 44,000 people in the UK is known to have it. It is obviously awful that some people have died and more are ill, and I am not downplaying the extent of the threat to human life- clearly exponential growth will sythe that fraction down to the point where most of us have it in a matter of weeks. This isn't a criticism of any government, or global response. If anything it says a lot about the connectedness of the world now, not just that something like the virus can spread so fast and so absolutely, but also that the knowledge and fear of it can do the same and cause entire continents to effectively close for business, and with no end in sight. This whole thing is absolutely surreal.
Was listening to an expert called Michael Osterholm who reckoned we could've been better prepared after SARS and MERS, but once it was over everyone moved on and didn't think of the next time. He didn't go into detail about what that would entail but given his background I assume he'd have some procedures up his sleeve for a faster response. This already seems like the big boot up the arse we sadly often need.
Apparently the government advisors realized that the course of action the government had been taking would lead to 250000 deaths in the UK. And intensive care units being 8x over capacity for the next 12 months.
Could someone go and tell them to stop worrying because organ Morgan said it's all ok and less dangerous than the normal flu.
IMG_20200317_092138.jpg
The red line is the intensive care capacity in the UK