Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[Taunton Blue Genie]

The testing here is absolutely abysmal.
In Virginia right now they are testing 10% of cases that rock up to urgent care with Covid symptoms and only if it is severe.

The curve isn’t going to flatten here anytime soon.

Also a friend of my Wife is a nurse and their PPE equipment is shocking.
She has one N95 mask.
I luckily bought a box of N95 masks in January and she is on her way to pick up a few.
She also has to drive out to a gin distillery to get hand sanitizer.

Unbelievable, especially when you consider the high expense paid each month (as well as Co-pay) for Health Insurance.

If anything good can come from this, a big rethink of Health Care in America is hopefully one of them.

Your reports from your side of the pond are interesting. Keep them coming.

[Croesy Blue]

Good news from USA, the IHME data model has now dropped to a prediction level of 60k Covid-19 deaths up until 4 August, which is the same as a heavy regular flu season. I'm a bit confused by their hospital counting methods though, as every death where Covid-19 is present or assumed to be present without testing is classified as a Covid-19 case. That means if a heart attack victim is admitted and picks up the Covid-19 virus at the hospital, then it is registered as a Covid-19 case.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

How is 60,000 extra deaths while everyone is social distancing good news?

[Wales-Bales]

How is 60,000 extra deaths while everyone is social distancing good news?

Its good news because 60k is less than the previous predictions of 2.2M, 1.1M, 250k and 100k, and it's also in the ballpark of regular flu.

Regarding extra deaths as noted above everything is being recorded as Covid-19. For a clearer picture you will have to compare the current numbers with historical data when it becomes available.

[Croesy Blue]

Is the country usually in lockdown during regular flu?

[surge]

Is the country usually in lockdown during regular flu?

Do people die in hospital without friends or family by their side because the government did nothing for a month (or more) meaning there isn't enough protective equipment to go around?

40 minutes of The Covid Report aims to provide discussion around daily briefing and more: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=05-jbrHRmrs

[Packerman]

Is the country usually in lockdown during regular flu?

not sure why anyone bothers to engage with gluey tbh,
he's convinced this is a storm in a teacup.
nothing to see here move along
the fact that we are losing nearly a thousand people a day and everyone is living in a surreal world atm is neither here nor there to our resident know-all
15 people died in a care home recently, they only tested 5, the other ten were just added to the stats (all same symptoms)
my previous partner died in a care home(thank **** she isn't alive for me and he children to worry about and not see for months)
my current partner works in a care home and they have 5 residents with symptoms) she's worked in that home for 19 years and has never seen ANYTHING like it
the fear and anxiety is all pervading but its just compatible to a bad years seasonal flu apparently so on we go living in a parallel universe to the norm of a few weeks ago

[Croesy Blue]

It’s also ignoring the fact that 60,000 would be as bad the worst number of flu deaths the US has had in the last 10 years, last year they had 28,000.

Anyone comparing the numbers to flu is doing so just to minimise how bad this is because they decided a few months ago it was just a bad flu and we didn’t need to social distance.

It’s also ignoring the fact that we’ve still had a flu season. So 60,000 extra deaths is no big deal?

[Croesy Blue]

not sure why anyone bothers to engage with gluey tbh,
he's convinced this is a storm in a teacup.
nothing to see here move along
the fact that we are losing nearly a thousand people a day and everyone is living in a surreal world atm is neither here nor there to our resident know-all
15 people died in a care home recently, they only tested 5, the other ten were just added to the stats (all same symptoms)
my previous partner died in a care home(thank **** she isn't alive for me and he children to worry about and not see for months)
my current partner works in a care home and they have 5 residents with symptoms) she's worked in that home for 19 years and has never seen ANYTHING like it
the fear and anxiety is all pervading but its just compatible to a bad years seasonal flu apparently so on we go living in a parallel universe to the norm of a few weeks ago

I hope your wife is managing to stay safe, sounds a terrible situation but amazing she’s caring for people at a time like this.

[cyril evans awaydays]

The testing here is absolutely abysmal.
In Virginia right now they are testing 10% of cases that rock up to urgent care with Covid symptoms and only if it is severe.

The curve isn’t going to flatten here anytime soon.

Also a friend of my Wife is a nurse and their PPE equipment is shocking.
She has one N95 mask.
I luckily bought a box of N95 masks in January and she is on her way to pick up a few.
She also has to drive out to a gin distillery to get hand sanitizer.

Unbelievable, especially when you consider the high expense paid each month (as well as Co-pay) for Health Insurance.

If anything good can come from this, a big rethink of Health Care in America is hopefully one of them.

The experience of your friend's wife and Packerman's experience on testing looks consistent with the HHS Inspector General's report that surveyed a sample of hospitals and other facilities in the US.

https://oig.hhs.gov/oei/reports/oei-...e=articleShare

But obviously you have to realise what you are feeding back is fake and the IG report bull because Wales-Bales found a video of a crying nurse on CBS saying she didn't have a mask when she did and Trump said the report and all the survey results were wrong because the IG was appointed in 1999 and served the Obama Administration. How silly do you look now?

[Divine Wright]

not sure why anyone bothers to engage with gluey tbh,
he's convinced this is a storm in a teacup.
nothing to see here move along
the fact that we are losing nearly a thousand people a day and everyone is living in a surreal world atm is neither here nor there to our resident know-all
15 people died in a care home recently, they only tested 5, the other ten were just added to the stats (all same symptoms)
my previous partner died in a care home(thank **** she isn't alive for me and he children to worry about and not see for months)
my current partner works in a care home and they have 5 residents with symptoms) she's worked in that home for 19 years and has never seen ANYTHING like it
the fear and anxiety is all pervading but its just compatible to a bad years seasonal flu apparently so on we go living in a parallel universe to the norm of a few weeks ago

I think what some people are getting at with the flu comparison is that the flu is a relatively unthreatening virus for the general population and that sars-cov-2 will turn out to be a lot less lethal than the 1 or 2 % fatality rate that is going round at the moment. I’ve read that it’s likely to be around 0.5%.

Spoken about in these terms, we are looking at a virus that is a bit more harmful than a somewhat harmless virus. Which is kind of undeniable.

That said, in the context of elderly care facilities, we are talking about a virus that is much more contagious and is going to kill ten or twenty times more people than the flu. However, I should imagine a flu outbreak in an old people’s home is a little more worrying than it would be on a university campus too.

I’m 39 and I’m a little concerned. If I were 70 odd , I’d be worried and cautious with it. And the stats would pretty much back me up.

[Packerman]

I think what some people are getting at with the flu comparison is that the flu is a relatively unthreatening virus for the general population and that sars-cov-2 will turn out to be a lot less lethal than the 1 or 2 % fatality rate that is going round at the moment. I’ve read that it’s likely to be around 0.5%.

Spoken about in these terms, we are looking at a virus that is a bit more harmful than a somewhat harmless virus. Which is kind of undeniable.

That said, in the context of elderly care facilities, we are talking about a virus that is much more contagious and is going to kill ten or twenty times more people than the flu. However, I should imagine a flu outbreak in an old people’s home is a little more worrying than it would be on a university campus too.

I’m 39 and I’m a little concerned. If I were 70 odd , I’d be worried and cautious with it. And the stats would pretty much back me up.

she's 64 with asthma and I'm 62 with stable angina, so i guess we are more concerned that most, her working in a care home just adds to the worry

[Packerman]

I think what some people are getting at with the flu comparison is that the flu is a relatively unthreatening virus for the general population and that sars-cov-2 will turn out to be a lot less lethal than the 1 or 2 % fatality rate that is going round at the moment. I’ve read that it’s likely to be around 0.5%.

Spoken about in these terms, we are looking at a virus that is a bit more harmful than a somewhat harmless virus. Which is kind of undeniable.


That said, in the context of elderly care facilities, we are talking about a virus that is much more contagious and is going to kill ten or twenty times more people than the flu. However, I should imagine a flu outbreak in an old people’s home is a little more worrying than it would be on a university campus too.

I’m 39 and I’m a little concerned. If I were 70 odd , I’d be worried and cautious with it. And the stats would pretty much back me up.

also these figures are with lockdown in place what would the toll be if we had carried on as normal like we do in normal flu season

[lardy]

How is 60,000 extra deaths while everyone is social distancing good news?

Trump, having no more than a few weeks ago said that there would soon be zero cases in America, is now saying that 60,000 deaths would be a massive success because of the model that says there might be 2.2million. And therefore the Trump fanboys jump on board with it and get excited by the prospect of only 60,000 dying.

I'd say it's a risky strategy as the US is already a quarter of the way there and hasn't shown any signs of slowing yet - but the Trump fanboys forget the past every time for the golden future, so it's just business as usual.

Trump says it, we love it.

[Croesy Blue]

Just to bring this to a wider audience, maybe I am stupid but:

You're, like Gunman, another one who has abandoned all sense of proportion. But I'm astounded by his gullibility while yours is unsurprising.

You are ignoring the facts though. Just to suit your original view point.

Covid is very infectious - the UK has been social distancing for a month - we have still had a lot of deaths - our hospitals still are becomming overwhelmed so people who need life saving treatment can't get it - Doctors and nurses are still dying of covid making hospitals even more understaffed.

This is all with social distancing, without social distancing it is worse.

Which part of this do you disagree with? Do you understand this all gets exponentially worse without social distancing?

[rudy gestede]

I keep seeing it mentioned that organ Morgan isn’t stupid but he’s trying to make a statistical conclusion on something that’s been around for 5 minutes and is willing to die on that hill.

Covid has been around for ~ 3 months. It’s like saying getting bombs dropped on you by the Germans isn’t a worry 3 months into WW2.

It’s no where near long enough to conclude the death rate. And that’s ignoring the fact the direct covid deaths aren’t the only issue.

[Trigger]

Seen this article regarding parties in Manchester https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ester-52221688

The weirdest one is 166 Street parties, how would anyone even think that's ok? Not even trying to hide it behind closed doors. Strange people out there.

[xsnaggle]

Seen this article regarding parties in Manchester https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...ester-52221688

The weirdest one is 166 Street parties, how would anyone even think that's ok? Not even trying to hide it behind closed doors. Strange people out there.

It makes me wonder.
Manchester Police report 166 "Street" parties, no one esle reports any. "Except a fight in clifton St involving some people stealing bikes)
I find myself asking, is this a sign tt lots of people are ignoring the lockdown or is it the Police in Mancheaster justifying being more heavy handed, or making the lockdown more sever? They don't have the best rep for softly softly.
Just wondering.
The british have historically been ruled by consent and I cannot see draconian measures such as the Chinese authorities might use ever being accepted here. More might very easily result in less!

[surge]

41 deaths in Wales (greatest bounce so far) since reporting yesterday.

(https://coronaviruscymru.wales/)

[Hilts]

A few days ago I posted that I didnt feel the Cynon Valley had really been hit by this yet.

Well today theres the dreadful story of 2 twin Sisters being taken by this horrible virus and the brother being in hospital.

Also a few days ago said I didnt know of or actually know anyone who has been diagnosed.

Sadly today told 1 person I worked with in the past has died and another on a ventilator.

Still dont know of anyone with a diagnosis that had mild symptoms.

[surge]

UK still pretending(?) that Brexit can happen this year:

Home Office choses today to produce new guidance on points based system: https://www.gov.uk/government/public...er-information

Wonder how many people will be thinking about this when clapping for essential workers (realise that at the moment it's done for NHS and carer's but how long until we recognise need to thank bin collectors, those working shops, bus drivers etc?) later on tonight. Is there going to be even greater shortage in the future?

[Wales-Bales]

Trump, having no more than a few weeks ago said that there would soon be zero cases in America.

Maybe because that is what he was being told by his chief medical advisor?

Top disease official: Risk of coronavirus in USA is 'minuscule'; skip mask and wash hands

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/h...ds/4787209002/

[Wales-Bales]

Is the country usually in lockdown during regular flu?

We are talking about a statistical data model here, and they are now predicting that less people are going to die. Don't you think it's good news that the data model is trending downwards, or do you want it to go upwards instead of down?

[Wales-Bales]

not sure why anyone bothers to engage with gluey tbh,
he's convinced this is a storm in a teacup.

I am only conveying information that comes directly from the Coronavirus task force that is driving government policy and will affect everybody's lives. If you're not interested just ignore it, there is no need for another diatrobe.

[Baloo]

German army donates 60 ventilators to the NHS: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...oronavirus-nhs

Danke.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

German army donates 60 ventilators to the NHS: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...oronavirus-nhs

Danke.

IN due course The Daily Mail will probably run a story about those whose lives were saved due to the German ventilators: when fit again the survivors developed an overwhelming urge to invade Poland.