Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

[trampie09]

As I said earlier, the 70% accuracy is not relevant unless we know what the base rate is. And, with this virus, we won't know the base rate. Ergo, I am not putting any value on the 70% accuracy. Of course, if you can provide links that show the specificity and sensitivity of the various tests, based on different populations and with a known base rate, I am open minded enough to have my mind changed.

I have shown why I am skeptical about the 70% figure, can you explain why you are certain the figure is correct?

No no butt, you have showed Porthcawl.
What is this base rate you refer too ?
What is specificty and sensitivity you refer too ?

If you are not putting a value on anything then your posts are meaningless, if you have no idea if the accuracy of the tests are very close to the 70% figure often routinely quoted, or if they are higher or lower, then you going on about the testing accuracy is pointless.

I'm not saying the figure is or isn't correct but it seems to be widely accepted, you dispute it yet you don't say if in your view the figure should be higher or lower.

[CCFCC3PO]

No no butt, you have showed Porthcawl.
What is this base rate you refer too ?
What is specificty and sensitivity you refer too ?

If you are not putting a value on anything then your posts are meaningless, if you have no idea if the accuracy of the tests are very close to the 70% figure often routinely quoted, or if they are higher or lower, then you going on about the testing accuracy is pointless.

I'm not saying the figure is or isn't correct but it seems to be widely accepted, you dispute it yet you don't say if in your view the figure should be higher or lower.

I have already explained what the base rate is, and how not knowing the base rate (which we don't) will effectively mean the "70% accuracy" figure is meaningless.

I have also explained how, in testing only people believed to have the infection, we will get a higher number of false negatives by the very nature of the testing parameters.

I have explained, in a few posts, why I am not giving too much credence to the 70% accuracy figure. You haven't explained (other than "a lot of people say so, but I can't tell you who") why you are putting a lot of credence into the 70% accuracy figure.

[Croesy Blue]

I've been looking but I still cannot find any information on how one volunteers to be one of the 'army' of people to monitor this tracing app. No info on it what so ever!
Can anyone steer me in the right direction?

Is there a Welsh government hotline or something?

My sister is doing it, they’ve moved people who were doing the phones onto the app.

[Croesy Blue]

I think that some people don't want pubs to re-open, whether they are the biggest source of infection or not. As I said I believe that there are people who just are happy to see them shut and if they had their way never reopen, and I believe that such people hold a disproportionate influence in wales.
'im not arguing one way or the other, it is just my opinion and I'm not going to change it.

I just don’t understand what’s made you think this? The majority of the country loves a pub whatever class they are and they bring in a lot of money.

The only reason they aren’t open is because of the virus.

Seriously what people in positions of power don’t want them open?

[xsnaggle]

I just don’t understand what’s made you think this? The majority of the country loves a pub whatever class they are and they bring in a lot of money.

The only reason they aren’t open is because of the virus.

Seriously what people in positions of power don’t want them open?

There are certain kinds of folks who think that pubs are 'the devil's work' and by and large they tend to be people of a certain kind, religious in a very strict way, or just dour and miserable themselves, products of strict wesleyan type upbringings who tend to think that if someone is enjoying himself its not good. It sounds silly but it is actually true. There are several people just like it in Llandaff where I live who have stopped the local club (which is sponsored by the cathedral) and the pub playing live music (so the club cannot now do wedding receptions for example) tried to shut the local Chinese restaurant and stopped a takeaway from selling kebabs on the pretext it would attract the "wrong kind" most of the members of Llandaff council are of this ilk.. There are people who call the police and complain bout the pubs regularly. When one of the publicans changed a frosted glass window for a sheet glass one to let more light in he was made to replace the frosted glass so "Respectable people passing by didn't have to see men drinking".
Sadly these people seem to be person who can influence the powers that be to do their bidding. Two of the people who do it in Llandaff are high court judges.
I agree with you that they are just like Gyms etc which will also be amongst the last to re open but you don't really need a gym to exercise but you do need a pub in a community context. Whether an individual chooses to attend is for him or her.
I will not hold my breath on pubs reopening in Wales until there are so many day trips to England that it becomes silly.

Sadly these people do actually exist!! Just my opinion as I say. And its not a debating point, but lets wait and see.

[CCFCC3PO]

There are certain kinds of folks who think that pubs are 'the devil's work' and by and large they tend to be people of a certain kind, religious in a very strict way, or just dour and miserable themselves, products of strict wesleyan type upbringings who tend to think that if someone is enjoying himself its not good. It sounds silly but it is actually true. There are several people just like it in Llandaff where I live who have stopped the local club (which is sponsored by the cathedral) and the pub playing live music (so the club cannot now do wedding receptions for example) tried to shut the local Chinese restaurant and stopped a takeaway from selling kebabs on the pretext it would attract the "wrong kind" most of the members of Llandaff council are of this ilk.. There are people who call the police and complain bout the pubs regularly. When one of the publicans changed a frosted glass window for a sheet glass one to let more light in he was made to replace the frosted glass so "Respectable people passing by didn't have to see men drinking".
Sadly these people seem to be person who can influence the powers that be to do their bidding. Two of the people who do it in Llandaff are high court judges.
I agree with you that they are just like Gyms etc which will also be amongst the last to re open but you don't really need a gym to exercise but you do need a pub in a community context. Whether an individual chooses to attend is for him or her.
I will not hold my breath on pubs reopening in Wales until there are so many day trips to England that it becomes silly.

Sadly these people do actually exist!! Just my opinion as I say. And its not a debating point, but lets wait and see.

No-one has denied that such people exist. What we have questioned is the reasoning behind your assertion that such people have a disproportionate amount of power in Wales.

It is odd that you think a gym is not needed to exercise. In fact, a gym is just as essential in a community context. It is a social setting too.

Do you think that the virus is less likely to be transmitted in a pub setting than it is in a gym (for example)?

[CCFCC3PO]

xsnaggle, can you explain the UK timeline for opening pubs please? Can you explain how that timeline implies that pubs will open in England before they open in Wales?

[CCFCC3PO]

Infection rate increasing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194

I'm sure the "go to work, but don't go on public transport, unless you can't get there any other way. You could walk, maybe, but yes at least you can meet your friends but in an outdoor setting, but only when the wind is North Westerly" message will make things better.

[tell it like it is]

Infection rate increasing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52677194

I'm sure the "go to work, but don't go on public transport, unless you can't get there any other way. You could walk, maybe, but yes at least you can meet your friends but in an outdoor setting, but only when the wind is North Westerly" message will make things better.

"As the figures are based on patients ending up in hospital, they actually give a sense of the R-number from around three weeks ago. "

[xsnaggle]

I just don’t understand what’s made you think this? The majority of the country loves a pub whatever class they are and they bring in a lot of money.

The only reason they aren’t open is because of the virus.

Seriously what people in positions of power don’t want them open?

I agree with you that the majority love a pub but sadly we are not ruled by the majority. The only reason they are closed is because of the virus and its a good excuse for some people to lobby to keep them closed.

Does your sister have a contact number about the tracing thing, for my boy?

[CCFCC3PO]

I agree with you that the majority love a pub but sadly we are not ruled by the majority. The only reason they are closed is because of the virus and its a good excuse for some people to lobby to keep them closed.

Does your sister have a contact number about the tracing thing, for my boy?

Who is lobbying for pubs to remain closed?

[trampie09]

I have already explained what the base rate is, and how not knowing the base rate (which we don't) will effectively mean the "70% accuracy" figure is meaningless.

I have also explained how, in testing only people believed to have the infection, we will get a higher number of false negatives by the very nature of the testing parameters.

I have explained, in a few posts, why I am not giving too much credence to the 70% accuracy figure. You haven't explained (other than "a lot of people say so, but I can't tell you who") why you are putting a lot of credence into the 70% accuracy figure.

What is the base rate you refer too ???

[CCFCC3PO]

What is the base rate you refer too ???

The base rate would be the rate at which the sub population (i.e. age, gender, ethnicity, social situation, exposure, risk factor). So, you know how likely they are to have it before the test, now we do the test and then compare the figures. It is a critical piece of evidence.

But, clinical knowledge will always trump a test. So, if someone tests negative but the evidence is that they have all the symptoms of covid 19, then the clinical interpretation of those symptoms will trump the results of tests. Which is, I think, what you were saying earlier (about a doctor being more accurate than a test).

But, with regards to saying the test is 30% inaccurate, like I say, there are reasons that I don't readily accept that. I am not rejecting it completely, but there is a critical piece of evidence missing, and that is the base rate. The base rate will never be 0% or 100% and it will differ between sub populations (e.g. Asian women working in care homes have a base rate (known infection rate) of 32%). The issue we have here is that we do not know the actual value of the base rate because of asymptomatic cases. Also, since tests are not being done on everyone, but only on suspected cases, this leads to more false negatives.

In the same way, if they were testing solely the people who do not have the virus, we would get more false positives.

[jon1959]

EEFF0974-5D63-4692-A4DD-7E01B81942AD.jpg

Big day tomorrow!

[Croesy Blue]

There are certain kinds of folks who think that pubs are 'the devil's work' and by and large they tend to be people of a certain kind, religious in a very strict way, or just dour and miserable themselves, products of strict wesleyan type upbringings who tend to think that if someone is enjoying himself its not good. It sounds silly but it is actually true. There are several people just like it in Llandaff where I live who have stopped the local club (which is sponsored by the cathedral) and the pub playing live music (so the club cannot now do wedding receptions for example) tried to shut the local Chinese restaurant and stopped a takeaway from selling kebabs on the pretext it would attract the "wrong kind" most of the members of Llandaff council are of this ilk.. There are people who call the police and complain bout the pubs regularly. When one of the publicans changed a frosted glass window for a sheet glass one to let more light in he was made to replace the frosted glass so "Respectable people passing by didn't have to see men drinking".
Sadly these people seem to be person who can influence the powers that be to do their bidding. Two of the people who do it in Llandaff are high court judges.
I agree with you that they are just like Gyms etc which will also be amongst the last to re open but you don't really need a gym to exercise but you do need a pub in a community context. Whether an individual chooses to attend is for him or her.
I will not hold my breath on pubs reopening in Wales until there are so many day trips to England that it becomes silly.

Sadly these people do actually exist!! Just my opinion as I say. And its not a debating point, but lets wait and see.

Your opinion is incorrect you’ll be pleased to hear.

[xsnaggle]

Your opinion is incorrect you’ll be pleased to hear.

We shall see lol

[Croesy Blue]

We shall see lol

How? If pubs never open again?

[Hilts]

"As the figures are based on patients ending up in hospital, they actually give a sense of the R-number from around three weeks ago. "

Seems so. 3 weeks behind. So the effect of stay alert wont be know for a while.

[xsnaggle]

Seems so. 3 weeks behind. So the effect of stay alert wont be know for a while.

They just said on the news that the R rate is based on figures from over a week ago, so if the rate goes up to 1 tomorrow it is a reflection of then not today. God knows how they will explain that when people start panicking.

[xsnaggle]

They just said on the news that the R rate is based on figures from over a week ago, so if the rate goes up to 1 tomorrow it is a reflection of then not today. God knows how they will explain that when people start panicking.

Just read an article that said the U of Cambridge estimate that the rise in R rate lags 3 weeks behind and that the rise is due to Greater testing in Care homes whilst the number is dropping in the general community, which gives the government more room for manouvre.

[CCFCC3PO]

They just said on the news that the R rate is based on figures from over a week ago, so if the rate goes up to 1 tomorrow it is a reflection of then not today. God knows how they will explain that when people start panicking.

The natural R rate of the virus is between 2 and 3. It will take significant effort to keep it below 1. It will take no effort to see it above 1, and heading above 2.

[xsnaggle]

The natural R rate of the virus is between 2 and 3. It will take significant effort to keep it below 1. It will take no effort to see it above 1, and heading above 2.

What's you point beside showing your innate higher intellect?

[CCFCC3PO]

What's you point beside showing your innate higher intellect?

My point is that it has taken 8 weeks of monumental efforts to get the R rate down below 1. Interestingly, the subject of a lag wasn't mentioned when the rate was 0.5-0.9! It was offered as definitive proof of us coming out of the peak, and giving the message of "stay alert".

Now, about these pubs....

[trampie09]

The base rate would be the rate at which the sub population (i.e. age, gender, ethnicity, social situation, exposure, risk factor). So, you know how likely they are to have it before the test, now we do the test and then compare the figures. It is a critical piece of evidence.

But, clinical knowledge will always trump a test. So, if someone tests negative but the evidence is that they have all the symptoms of covid 19, then the clinical interpretation of those symptoms will trump the results of tests. Which is, I think, what you were saying earlier (about a doctor being more accurate than a test).

But, with regards to saying the test is 30% inaccurate, like I say, there are reasons that I don't readily accept that. I am not rejecting it completely, but there is a critical piece of evidence missing, and that is the base rate. The base rate will never be 0% or 100% and it will differ between sub populations (e.g. Asian women working in care homes have a base rate (known infection rate) of 32%). The issue we have here is that we do not know the actual value of the base rate because of asymptomatic cases. Also, since tests are not being done on everyone, but only on suspected cases, this leads to more false negatives.

In the same way, if they were testing solely the people who do not have the virus, we would get more false positives.

But weren't their samples weighted ?, why do they think their samples weren't weighted ?

The UK relied heavily on medical modellers and not enough on virologists was a common criticism of our lot, our lot seem to have got it wrong at every turn but the one area they should have some idea on was modelling, are you saying the UK modellers had no idea how to mathematically do their calculations ?

Yes they can make the wrong assumptions, yes they might not fully understand the characteristics of this new virus and if you put the wrong information into a computer you get wrong information out, no doubt that happened, but are you saying they don't know how to go about working it out statistically and mathematically (if they had put the correct info in) ?

[CCFCC3PO]

But weren't their samples weighted ?, why do they think their samples weren't weighted ?

The UK relied heavily on medical modellers and not enough on virologists was a common criticism of our lot, our lot seem to have got it wrong at every turn but the one area they should have some idea on was modelling, are you saying the UK modellers had no idea how to mathematically do their calculations ?

Yes they can make the wrong assumptions, yes they might not fully understand the characteristics of this new virus and if you put the wrong information into a computer you get wrong information out, no doubt that happened, but are you saying they don't know how to go about working it out statistically and mathematically (if they had put the correct info in) ?

We don't yet know how many people have contracted covid-19 without symptoms. The base rate needs to be an accurate figure.

Example.

x% of women aged 44-49 in South East Asia suffer from breast cancer. During testing of women aged 44-49 in South East Asia, the twice that percentage of women tested positive for breast cancer using a brand new method. Result - women are retested with the old method. First tests are found to have a significant number of false positives. Accuracy of test is calculated not just on false positives, but also based on that base rate.

The difference is, we know the base rate of women with cancer aged 44-49 in South East Asia. We don't know how many people have contracted covid. The other difference is that women are tested for breast cancer regardless of an assumption that they have it or not. In the main, testing of covid is done on people displaying symptoms.