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Thread: Coronavirus update - NO MORE RESTRICTIONS

  1. #626

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Baloo View Post
    Pretty sloppy tbh to publish that data with a couple of typos in it. Germany typo acknowledged. Either the Netherlands peak data is also a typo or is already shown to be way out. Underlying modelling might be sound but hard for people to feel confident in these models with basic errors.
    I've not seen the acknowledgement of the German error (presumably it was 9 April, not 9 March?), but it's hard to work out what they mean with that Netherlands figure. Nevertheless, despite the high numbers involved, those figures are quite a bit better than I was expecting them to be and you'd like to think these are people who don't tend to get such things spectacularly wrong.

  2. #627

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
    I've not seen the acknowledgement of the German error (presumably it was 9 April, not 9 March?), but it's hard to work out what they mean with that Netherlands figure. Nevertheless, despite the high numbers involved, those figures are quite a bit better than I was expecting them to be and you'd like to think these are people who don't tend to get such things spectacularly wrong.
    The Germany error is acknowledged further down in the tweet. Perhaps the Netherlands data is also a typo on the date. Yes, I’d of course defer to their knowledge it’s just unfortunate it wasn’t more carefully presented.

  3. #628

    Re: Coronavirus update

    If thenumbers for Spain & Italy are correct and our number is correct that must mean the social distancing is having a good effect.

    Also have to be careful that it's produced by a statistician not an expert on the virus, but if the trends are correct it is really good news.

  4. #629

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    The excel centre in London being turned into a hospital is pretty worrying.

    Enough room for 4k beds, and 2 morgues. They must be expecting the shit to hit the fan soon.
    Scary stuff. Hope they never fill it.

  5. #630

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    UK has enough intensive care units for coronavirus, expert predicts

    The UK should now be able to cope with the spread of the covid-19 virus, according to one of the epidemiologists advising the government.

    Neil Ferguson at Imperial College London gave evidence today to the UK’s parliamentary select committee on science and technology as part of an inquiry into the nation’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

    He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

    https://www.newscientist.com/article...pert-predicts/
    Check the guys twitter page. He states that his recommendation has been misinterpreted and is still on coarse for up to 500k. Britain isn't doing a hard lockdown.

  6. #631

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Shute View Post
    Check the guys twitter page. He states that his recommendation has been misinterpreted and is still on coarse for up to 500k. Britain isn't doing a hard lockdown.
    Tom Pike from Imperial College has a figure of 5,700, which is similar to what Dr Fauci is mentioning as the difference between SARS and pandemic flu.

  7. #632

    Re: Coronavirus update

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ar-as-we-think

    That's quite a good article, it does talk about how the virus might appear worse than it is.

    The only thing it doesn't talk about it the health service becomming over whelmed which I thought was the main concern.

  8. #633

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...ar-as-we-think

    That's quite a good article, it does talk about how the virus might appear worse than it is.

    The only thing it doesn't talk about it the health service becomming over whelmed which I thought was the main concern.
    According to Dr Birx at a White House press conference, "In no country to date have we seen an attack rate over One in a Thousand..."

    "...The predictions of the models don't match the reality on the ground in either China, South Korea or Italy."

  9. #634

    Re: Coronavirus update

    What is an attack rate?

  10. #635

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    What is an attack rate?
    Number of infections.

  11. #636

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    According to Dr Birx at a White House press conference, "In no country to date have we seen an attack rate over One in a Thousand..."
    Is that right? Doesn’t Italy already have over 80000 confirmed cases (JHU) amongst a population of 60m, so 1 in 750? Or am I misunderstanding the point?

  12. #637

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Wales-Bales View Post
    According to Dr Birx at a White House press conference, "In no country to date have we seen an attack rate over One in a Thousand..."

    "...The predictions of the models don't match the reality on the ground in either China, South Korea or Italy."
    Italy has a population of just over 60 million and an "attack rate" of just over 80 thousand. I hope her medical skills are better than her maths.

  13. #638

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays View Post
    Italy has a population of just over 60 million and an "attack rate" of just over 80 thousand. I hope her medical skills are better than her maths.
    Also Switzerland has nearly 12,000 confirmed cases in population of 9m. Spain nearly 58,000 cases in population of 46m. Seems an odd claim to make.

  14. #639

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Baloo View Post
    Also Switzerland has nearly 12,000 confirmed cases in population of 9m. Spain nearly 58,000 cases in population of 46m. Seems an odd claim to make.
    https://www.c-span.org/video/?c48640...-birx-modeling

  15. #640

  16. #641

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Baloo View Post
    Is that right? Doesn’t Italy already have over 80000 confirmed cases (JHU) amongst a population of 60m, so 1 in 750? Or am I misunderstanding the point?
    I bet the figure is also considerably higher than 80,000 too.

  17. #642

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Boris Johnson has tested positively for it apparently.

  18. #643

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Weird the people who were saying last week we aren't testing everyone so the death rate isn't that bad are now saying the "attack rate" isn't that bad.

    Which is it.

    Also Boris now has it.

  19. #644

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
    Very interesting, makes it seem much less like sure good news really.

    If people are really sure it isn't that bad why is the excel now a 4000 bed hospital with 2 morgues and why are the army all using city airport to support it.

  20. #645

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Excel is being used to alleviate current pressure on other hospitals...

    There's a different between short term spikes and longer term issues.

  21. #646

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    Excel is being used to alleviate current pressure on other hospitals...

    There's a different between short term spikes and longer term issues.
    Yeah that's my point that fact we need them now shows the situation is bad, those spikes won't go away until there is a vaccine. We will have peaks and troughs but they will keep coming.

  22. #647

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by tell it like it is View Post
    I stocked up on a fair few things a couple of days ago - had virtue signaller have a go in the car park.

    I was getting normal amount immediate family ( wife, kids, cats ) consume. Got some stuff for my mum, currently in self-isolation in sheltered accomodation. Also got stuff for some elderly residents in the street.

    Still, I'm a "hoarding bastard"...

    Those deliberately hoarding are idiots. Stores don't care, it's a sale.

    tell it like it is is just another Wales-Bales I see, use one account you weirdo

  23. #648

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    tell it like it is is just another Wales-Bales I see, use one account you weirdo
    You appear to be wrong, again.

  24. #649

    Re: Coronavirus update

    Quote Originally Posted by Croesy Blue View Post
    Yeah that's my point that fact we need them now shows the situation is bad, those spikes won't go away until there is a vaccine. We will have peaks and troughs but they will keep coming.
    Is it a need or is it a precaution? Tbh it's sensible to have suspected coronavirus victims isolated in separate hospitals from "normal" patients. Bugs often spread across wards due to staff and visitors not washing hands.

  25. #650

    Re: Coronavirus update

    It's a need I know the 2 hopsitals near me have already too many patients and the 2 near my parents' the same

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