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https://old.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus...tory_as_italy/
Don’t let anyone tell you statistical models don’t mean anything. They’ve been saying this for a month.
Please stay safe,at this rate the country will have another 3000+ deaths in 2 weeks.
Literally just read this too. Posted about it in the COVID thread.
It's extremely alarming. Thousands of people in the UK will die guaranteed due to no-one taking it seriously enough. It will literally take losing a loved one for some of these people to take it seriously. Maybe even not then.
My grandparents are very ill and I’ve come to the conclusion there’s a very good chance I won’t get to see them again or attend their funerals. There staying in but one of them has to go to the hospital, so quite likely to get it.
I don’t know what’s wrong with people, some pubs have been leaving the back doors open for people to go drinking.
Sorry to hear that.
It's awful hearing similar stories of people dying alone and funerals being ruined. It'll honestly take an army to force people indoors and I for one would welcome this measure with open arms.
I think it’s coming tbh. I reckon tomorrow London will be locked down and then the rest of the country will follow.
Is that right about some pubs leaving the back door open? That's shocking, the landlords should be told they'll lose their licence if they try to defy the government's orders to close their doors.Originally Posted by Croesy Blue
Haven’t looked into this, but is there some kind of fine or threat of imprisonment in place ???
Think compulsory reading should be:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ust-start.html
How can people still think it is not serious? It IS existence threatening to life as it is known.
Also just read the Bill before Parliament tomorrow...this includes many worrying checks on liberty, including:
"The bill will also allow people to be detained under mental health laws if one doctor deems that they are in need of urgent treatment, rather than two."
Very worrying.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/e...esponse-plans:
Key words there.... AT THIS RATE.
It could be even worse, or it could be better. The model has so many parameters, and the growth is seen to be exponential, that just altering one parameter could have huge consequences.
I will now only go to the shops for food. Apart from that, I am staying in although there are open areas I can walk around as well, so will do that.
That graph is 2 days behind and we have had the exact same numbers for the 2 following days.
Incubation period is 2 weeks and we haven’t done any more than Italy did so realistically we are getting exactly the same for the next 2 weeks unless we get a miracle.
We aren’t even on lockdown yet and London is more dense than any Italian city. I’d say more likely it’ll be worse at this rate.
I think London is extremely worrying, like you say any action will take at least 2 weeks to have an impact. I just think that, at this early stage, there are not enough data points. One of the issues we will have is compliance. Some people will say "They closed the pubs last weekend, people are still dying, so it's not working" and will start to not comply. We are in for a sobering 2 weeks at the least, and I wouldn't mind guessing that the panic buying frenzy may be a hotbed for virus spread.
But, have you seen the Spanish figures? Their rate of rise is steeper than the Italian's. Like I say, the UK figures could get better, the public (albeit in small numbers) will have seen what is happening in other countries who are ahead of us in the curve. I put my dad on lockdown last Sunday (ahead of the Government announcement) and I have been working from home 2 weeks (ahead of the announcement). I've spoken to others who have done the same. I reckon there should be a lockdown in all major cities or areas with a high population density (rather than a national lockdown).
No cause for celebration, but figures today at 281 compared to Italy on 366.
In the interests of balance and not wishing to deny the seriousness of the situation, Italy has the second oldest (over 65’s) population in the World. Uk is 24th. Japan is 1st but has had very few virus cases reported. The figures mean little in terms of predicting what will happen and it is difficult to compare them country to country. There is no way of knowing if UK will follow Italy or not. Infection and death rates are still low in comparison to overall population.
This article published earlier, if accurate, would explain why Italian numbers are increasing.
Israeli doctor in Italy: We no longer help those over 60 - https://www.jpost.com/International/...over-60-621856
All wrong I’m afraid. People need to be careful.
It doesn’t say they aren’t helping them just respirators are going to people under 60 as priority.
I believe Germany has the 3rd highest over 65 population and a fraction of deaths compared to Italy and significantly lower than the UK to date. It also has a high number of cases. It looks like there are many more complex factors involved here.
Clearly things are going to get very much worse. The government's scientific advisor has stated that less than 20000 deaths is a good outcome. According to my son, who is on the front line, this is an horrendous illness and an awful way to die. The staff are scared and stressed especially as many of the deaths in Italy are medics.
Its the same here with people over 70 pretty much. Most of them won't survive the process. My good friend working on the frontline of the NHS told me the same. As things get worse he mentioned it wouldn't surprise him if we lower it to 60 also as there's no equipment around. 60 is not old let's be honest. It's haunting to think my parents wouldn't even be given the chance to live in Italy right now.
I think I read recently that Germany had far more ITU beds than the UK, and presumably, Italy. However, as you say, there is complexity behind the statistics and only an idiot latches onto one facet of comparison.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
We are indeed on the same path. We’re pretty much where Italy was 15/16 days ago (5-6 thousand cases and 250-350 deaths).
The next fortnight we will be in total lock down. It has to happen, it is panning out exactly how the government has said.
Those who aren’t following or listening to the daily updates are complete and utter fools.
We have some friends who live in Bergamo, they haven't been out in weeks apart from brief shops for food.
They are watching what's going on here and asking "What the f*** are you doing?"
I can understand them thinking that but no one knows which plan is right and which plan is wrong. It is a completely unknown situation.We in UK always seem to think everyone else is right and we are wrong but by and large we do quite well. The only way we know is when the final numbers are counted
Looking at the figures the Chinese way is the right way but it is something that wouldn't work here, not least because those in charge don't have the same level of power.
In the same way we can't build two hospitals in a week or whatever it was.
The mindset of the people is also very different. I know people who live with an elderly relative that on Friday had to go for one last pint because they wouldn't be able to for some time.
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