Quote Originally Posted by the other bob wilson View Post
I agree about the possibility of a second outbreak and I'm pretty sure the people who really count in this, the people with the specialist knowledge, are currently assuming that there will be one and, when there is, how can the damage it causes be minimised. However, for me, there are two things going on here, one involving those specialists and another involving the general public who are, for now, just longing for a time when they can return to something like normality. I happen to think that, even if there is a second wave, there will be a period where the restrictions will be eased somewhat and we can get that normality back for a while - this will leave us better prepared if we have do have to go through more lockdowns.
I agree, although I think many things will be tentative. As in your example on you considering going to watch football, I will have to make a decision on whether or not my kids can go to see their grandkids. I stopped this about 10 days before the schools closed, based on evidence that Italy's problems were exacerbated by kids going to stay with grandparents. I also told my work that I would be working from home or taking annual leave a week before they made the decision. So, I think it is important to be pro-active.

I hope subsequent waves will not be as severe as this one but, I think with every wave there will be a psychological impact on the general public - almost like an after shock after an earthquake. But, and I know this causes problems for some, we do not know so many things.
Immunity period.
Asymptomatic cases.
Infection rates of asymptomatic cases.
Infection rates among children.
Immunity against other strains of the same virus.
The ability of the virus to mutate.
The possibilities of new strains of the virus in years to come.
The effectiveness of a vaccine against these strains.

Based on all the above, my opinion is that this cannot be treated as a one wave pandemic. I also don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility that we will be faced with periods of lockdown over the next few years (I am basing that on my lack of confidence on a vaccination). I do think subsequent lockdowns will not be as severe because we will have better coping mechanisms. Ideally we need to follow the example of Singapore and South Korea in tracking people but, again, we have people who are suspicious of the Government's intentions. I don't think enough is being made of the fact that we are, essentially, in a situation that would only be repeated during a war and during a war, certain freedoms have to be removed.

For some reason, people are taking the above opinion as an affront to something that is known but, correct me if I am wrong, but no scientific experts have suggested anything other than a period of instability when we get back to normal.

I'm hoping that people respect why I have formed the opinion I have done - it's based on the unknowns.

Similarly, I am equally concerned that people are assuming they have had it and are invincible. Essentially, people need to walk around as if they have the virus - that mindset will help restrict spread. If we suddenly have people walking around as if they are invincible (and they may be, but they can't know this) then we have a new cause of transmission.