Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%

[Jimmy the Jock]

There is no cure .

There wont be a vaccine for some time .

For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .

Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.

The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .

The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .

The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.

Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?

[The Lone Gunman]

Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?

I disagree. I don't think there has ever been a pandemic during which 100% of the population were infected.

[Jimmy the Jock]

I disagree. I don't think there has ever been a pandemic during which 100% of the population were infected.

Very clever (as expected) ...The vast majority perhaps . They are going to open the doors and contaminate another group of people.
Then close them and deal with the sick
Do you disagree with that ? Until the vast majority have caught the virus.

[The Lone Gunman]

Very clever (as expected) ...The vast majority perhaps . They are going to open the doors and contaminate another group of people.
Then close them and deal with the sick
Do you disagree with that ? Until there is no one left to catch the virus.

I don't even know what you're talking about to be honest. It makes no sense to me.

I'm not an expert on pandemics and I wouldn't like to guess how this one will end up, but I think suggesting that everyone is going to get it eventually is nonsense based on everything I've heard and read.

[Croesy Blue]

Very clever (as expected) ...The vast majority perhaps . They are going to open the doors and contaminate another group of people.
Then close them and deal with the sick
Do you disagree with that ? Until the vast majority have caught the virus.

I think if that happens unless it’s done ridiculously slowly we would end up with too many deaths.

How many have it now? 1% of the population? 5%?

We’ve already had 4000 deaths.

[Jimmy the Jock]

I think if that happens unless it’s done ridiculously slowly we would end up with too many deaths.

How many have it now? 1% of the population? 5%?

We’ve already had 4000 deaths.

The only figures they are giving is for people tested , when we cant test the people in the front line ,our NHS workers , then , the figures mean nothing.
I remember them saying one person could contaminate 400 people in a very short period , it gives an idea how far out the figures are.

[sneggyblubird]

Not at all.What the OP is saying that all the people that manage to duck it this time around may well get it next time.I think at a guess the number of people as a percentage who don't succombe to this virus at any time will be in the lower single digits.A vaccine of some sort will eventually help.

[Gofer Blue]

I have pondered on this myself. As a 70+ year old I am obliged to stay at home 24/7, so here I am in splendid isolation for the last 2 weeks and maybe many more weeks yet. It's not too bad, just missing face to face contact with friends and family. Even when this episode is deemed to be officially "over" and I go out and about once again, how can I be sure that there still aren't a significant number of folk who are asymptomatic also out and about? Might it not have been better that I had caught the virus now and thereby got some immunity? The problem is I would never know if I had got the milder form of the disease, or if not, it would have killed me anyway!

I wouldn't put any store in getting the vaccine - that's going to be a very long way off and, not unreasonably, us geriatrics are going to be way down the priority list!

[the other bob wilson]

There is no cure .

There wont be a vaccine for some time .

For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .

Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.

The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .

The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .

The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.

Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?

The examples of China and other Asian countries argue otherwise. Also, my understanding is that previous coronaviruses, including the seemingly more deadly SARS, were on the wane before a vaccine was discovered.

If we are all going to get it though, surely, it is best to do all we can to postpone such an event as long as we can so the best chance is given to getting a vaccine?

[CCFCC3PO]

There is no cure .

There wont be a vaccine for some time .

For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .

Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.

The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .

The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .

The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.

Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?

This probably explains why you are being a wanker and going out and about as if it is normal.

If my parents get it, they will very likely be hospitalised. If that happens, I don't think they will get a ventilator ahead of the many younger people who need them.

The deaths are not being controlled. We are at the start of that curve.

I appreciate you need to get out and about and this is all a terrible inconvenience to you, but herd immunity projected 200,000 deaths and this lockdown projects 7000-20000 deaths.

[CCFCC3PO]

I think if that happens unless it’s done ridiculously slowly we would end up with too many deaths.

How many have it now? 1% of the population? 5%?

We’ve already had 4000 deaths.

The most recent estimate I have seen is 2.7% of the population.

We need the anti-body test.

The vaccine will come after so called herd immunity.

[Croesy Blue]

The only figures they are giving is for people tested , when we cant test the people in the front line ,our NHS workers , then , the figures mean nothing.
I remember them saying one person could contaminate 400 people in a very short period , it gives an idea how far out the figures are.

So what percentage of the country do you think has it?

[Jimmy the Jock]

I have pondered on this myself. As a 70+ year old I am obliged to stay at home 24/7, so here I am in splendid isolation for the last 2 weeks and maybe many more weeks yet. It's not too bad, just missing face to face contact with friends and family. Even when this episode is deemed to be officially "over" and I go out and about once again, how can I be sure that there still aren't a significant number of folk who are asymptomatic also out and about? Might it not have been better that I had caught the virus now and thereby got some immunity? The problem is I would never know if I had got the milder form of the disease, or if not, it would have killed me anyway!

I wouldn't put any store in getting the vaccine - that's going to be a very long way off and, not unreasonably, us geriatrics are going to be way down the priority list!

My mother is 80 and has "underlying health issues" I usually see her once a week .
I haven't seen her since I read the consequences of this virus. She has stayed in for a couple of weeks, like yourself, and I do worry
how long will it be before she is able to leave the house safely.
If my thoughts on this are correct it will be some time away.

[bobh]

I have pondered on this myself. As a 70+ year old I am obliged to stay at home 24/7, so here I am in splendid isolation for the last 2 weeks and maybe many more weeks yet. It's not too bad, just missing face to face contact with friends and family. Even when this episode is deemed to be officially "over" and I go out and about once again, how can I be sure that there still aren't a significant number of folk who are asymptomatic also out and about? Might it not have been better that I had caught the virus now and thereby got some immunity? The problem is I would never know if I had got the milder form of the disease, or if not, it would have killed me anyway!

I wouldn't put any store in getting the vaccine - that's going to be a very long way off and, not unreasonably, us geriatrics are going to be way down the priority list!

If they follow the model with the seasonal flu jabs, the vulnerable (including us oldies) will actually be higher priority.

[Jimmy the Jock]

So what percentage of the country do you think has it?

Has it... has had it …?

It would appear to have very different affects on all of us .

I couldn't guess . The test which tells us who has had it will be the way forward.

[the other bob wilson]

If they follow the model with the seasonal flu jabs, the vulnerable (including us oldies) will actually be higher priority.

I agree. If the situation was reversed and there was something that was much more dangerous to youngsters than oldies, I would not expect or want to be getting any vaccine in front of them.

[CCFCC3PO]

When numbers of new cases and numbers in intensive care (currently 1600) start falling, they will relax the restrictions a little.

The key thing is how quickly the number of new cases drops once we reach the peak.

Once that drops, they will allow kids back to school (maybe with monitoring of their temperature). After a few weeks of that, people will be allowed to travel back to work, maybe shops will reopen, but with a maximum number of people allowed.

The vulnerable are only on week 2 of a 12 week lockdown, so that gives you an idea of the timeline. Ideally, they will want kids in school before removing restrictions on the vulnerable.

However, if people continue flouting the rules, then this will go on a lot longer. Mainly because we can't be trusted to follow guidelines.

[Jimmy the Jock]

The examples of China and other Asian countries argue otherwise. Also, my understanding is that previous coronaviruses, including the seemingly more deadly SARS, were on the wane before a vaccine was discovered.

If we are all going to get it though, surely, it is best to do all we can to postpone such an event as long as we can so the best chance is given to getting a vaccine?

That is quite interesting ,would you know why they started to wane , What was the turning point ?

[Jimmy the Jock]

When numbers of new cases and numbers in intensive care (currently 1600) start falling, they will relax the restrictions a little.

The key thing is how quickly the number of new cases drops once we reach the peak.

Once that drops, they will allow kids back to school (maybe with monitoring of their temperature). After a few weeks of that, people will be allowed to travel back to work, maybe shops will reopen, but with a maximum number of people allowed.

The vulnerable are only on week 2 of a 12 week lockdown, so that gives you an idea of the timeline. Ideally, they will want kids in school before removing restrictions on the vulnerable.

However, if people continue flouting the rules, then this will go on a lot longer. Mainly because we can't be trusted to follow guidelines.

Do you think the rules will be relaxed just once ?

[delmbox]

When numbers of new cases and numbers in intensive care (currently 1600) start falling, they will relax the restrictions a little.

The key thing is how quickly the number of new cases drops once we reach the peak.

Once that drops, they will allow kids back to school (maybe with monitoring of their temperature). After a few weeks of that, people will be allowed to travel back to work, maybe shops will reopen, but with a maximum number of people allowed.

The vulnerable are only on week 2 of a 12 week lockdown, so that gives you an idea of the timeline. Ideally, they will want kids in school before removing restrictions on the vulnerable.

However, if people continue flouting the rules, then this will go on a lot longer. Mainly because we can't be trusted to follow guidelines.

But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)

So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?

[Jimmy the Jock]

But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)

So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?

Slightly more eloquent than myself .

[surge]

The examples of China and other Asian countries argue otherwise. Also, my understanding is that previous coronaviruses, including the seemingly more deadly SARS, were on the wane before a vaccine was discovered.

If we are all going to get it though, surely, it is best to do all we can to postpone such an event as long as we can so the best chance is given to getting a vaccine?

Either that or to maximise chance of getting best NHS care: it would be a lot easier if we got it one at a time rather than three hundred and fifty-five extra cases in Wales in one day.

[Croesy Blue]

Has it... has had it …?

It would appear to have very different affects on all of us .

I couldn't guess . The test which tells us who has had it will be the way forward.

We’ll all evidence points to a maximum of 3%, let’s be more optimistic and say 5% of the country has had it and 4000 deaths already.

So if 100% of the country get it that’s a minimum of 80,000 deaths.

[Jimmy the Jock]

We’ll all evidence points to a maximum of 3%, let’s be more optimistic and say 5% of the country has had it and 4000 deaths already.

So if 100% of the country get it that’s a minimum of 80,000 deaths.

The hospital in the millennium stadium and similar all over the country tells me we haven't scratched the surface .

I don't want to be seen as doing gloom and doom , I believe my opening post is probably close to the truth .
My mind is open to there being another solution .

[light up the darkness]

We’ll all evidence points to a maximum of 3%, let’s be more optimistic and say 5% of the country has had it and 4000 deaths already.

So if 100% of the country get it that’s a minimum of 80,000 deaths.

5% of 66.5 million is 3,250,000

At that number the death rate is incomprehensible to us. It becomes a simple but horrifying statistic.