Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%

[delmbox]

Well, you plainly are not a scientist because that would not be good enough for a scientist nor a doctor. How do you think science works - "there's a good chance that is correct, so let's just say it's correct and head off to the pub"?

Pubs are shut mate. And I'm not saying he should crack on as normal, I'm just saying I trust the judgement of a trained paramedic dealing with Coronavirus cases all day over an overconfident random on a messageboard who keeps avoiding the question about if he does anything remotely to do with any of this for a living

[the other bob wilson]

Look, I have put the reasons for my arguments here in black and white. Where I have been most forceful is in challenging other people's opinions. That doesn't mean I think I am right, and I've never said I am right. I appreciate my scenario is unpalatable. But, I have to say, I won't be led up a pretty garden path on this. The thought and expectation that flattening the curve is all we have to do is incredibly optimistic. I am fearful that people are not being prepared for a reoccurrence of this - and I am incredibly concerned at how the public would respond if there were a second wave that they weren't expecting.

Personally, I think the UK is one of the few countries to have gotten the handling of this correct - albeit late. That doesn't preclude the likelihood of another wave and another lockdown . I don't quite understand why me ruling this out is so upsetting. I am preparing for it - I will be downsizing as soon as this is over and making myself mortgage free. If my job survives this wave, it won't survive if there is a subsequent wave.

Where I have less confidence is that, once contained, it is over. Where I have less confidence is that, once you have it, you're immune for years. And, I have little confidence that a vaccine is the complete answer. That will take years (I still think 18 months is optimistic) - and you have the anti-vax movement to contend with. Measles was all but eradicated until recently thanks to those bastards.

I agree about the possibility of a second outbreak and I'm pretty sure the people who really count in this, the people with the specialist knowledge, are currently assuming that there will be one and, when there is, how can the damage it causes be minimised. However, for me, there are two things going on here, one involving those specialists and another involving the general public who are, for now, just longing for a time when they can return to something like normality. I happen to think that, even if there is a second wave, there will be a period where the restrictions will be eased somewhat and we can get that normality back for a while - this will leave us better prepared if we have do have to go through more lockdowns.

[CCFCC3PO]

Pubs are shut mate. And I'm not saying he should crack on as normal, I'm just saying I trust the judgement of a trained paramedic dealing with Coronavirus cases all day over an overconfident random on a messageboard who keeps avoiding the question about if he does anything remotely to do with any of this for a living

I see you are going to turn this into an ad hominem debate. So, apologies for not playing ball.

When someone pipes up about an awful Peltier performance, I look forward to them qualifying the statement on here by listing number of international caps, club appearances and so on.

Further, I have not disputed the paramedics claim that Uncle Bob's mate had covid-19. I am asking how he came to that assessment (what is so difficult to understand that?), especially in light of some countries having to make minor adjustments (up and down) on their case numbers based on actual proof. Merkel was counted in the stats for Germany, before being removed after she turned out to be a false positive.

[CCFCC3PO]

I agree about the possibility of a second outbreak and I'm pretty sure the people who really count in this, the people with the specialist knowledge, are currently assuming that there will be one and, when there is, how can the damage it causes be minimised. However, for me, there are two things going on here, one involving those specialists and another involving the general public who are, for now, just longing for a time when they can return to something like normality. I happen to think that, even if there is a second wave, there will be a period where the restrictions will be eased somewhat and we can get that normality back for a while - this will leave us better prepared if we have do have to go through more lockdowns.

I agree, although I think many things will be tentative. As in your example on you considering going to watch football, I will have to make a decision on whether or not my kids can go to see their grandkids. I stopped this about 10 days before the schools closed, based on evidence that Italy's problems were exacerbated by kids going to stay with grandparents. I also told my work that I would be working from home or taking annual leave a week before they made the decision. So, I think it is important to be pro-active.

I hope subsequent waves will not be as severe as this one but, I think with every wave there will be a psychological impact on the general public - almost like an after shock after an earthquake. But, and I know this causes problems for some, we do not know so many things.
Immunity period.
Asymptomatic cases.
Infection rates of asymptomatic cases.
Infection rates among children.
Immunity against other strains of the same virus.
The ability of the virus to mutate.
The possibilities of new strains of the virus in years to come.
The effectiveness of a vaccine against these strains.

Based on all the above, my opinion is that this cannot be treated as a one wave pandemic. I also don't think it is beyond the realms of possibility that we will be faced with periods of lockdown over the next few years (I am basing that on my lack of confidence on a vaccination). I do think subsequent lockdowns will not be as severe because we will have better coping mechanisms. Ideally we need to follow the example of Singapore and South Korea in tracking people but, again, we have people who are suspicious of the Government's intentions. I don't think enough is being made of the fact that we are, essentially, in a situation that would only be repeated during a war and during a war, certain freedoms have to be removed.

For some reason, people are taking the above opinion as an affront to something that is known but, correct me if I am wrong, but no scientific experts have suggested anything other than a period of instability when we get back to normal.

I'm hoping that people respect why I have formed the opinion I have done - it's based on the unknowns.

Similarly, I am equally concerned that people are assuming they have had it and are invincible. Essentially, people need to walk around as if they have the virus - that mindset will help restrict spread. If we suddenly have people walking around as if they are invincible (and they may be, but they can't know this) then we have a new cause of transmission.

[CCFCC3PO]

Has it been proven you can't get it twice yet?

It hasn't. I think I pointed out that 263 people were re-tested in China, and 38 people had the virus having previously recovered. One caveat against that is that the theory is those 38 were falsely identified as having it. But, clearly, this is still an unknown and assumptions are based on other coronaviruses like colds. But, for some of these, immunity lasts a few months at best.

Worse case scenario - we can get it twice. I struggle to see how this first wave will not be continuously repeated until there is a vaccine. I think that is a fair opinion to make. I also see no problem in thinking of worse case scenarios - I'm fairly confident this has been discussed by Governments around the world.

[CCFCC3PO]

He says in the post that the paramedics said his mate definitely had Coronavirus. I'm not a medical worker or scientist so that's good enough for me. Understandably it's not for you, what is it you do for a living again?

Apologies, I see in another thread that Uncle Bob's friend was tested. So that removes any element of doubt for his friend, and it seems likely that Uncle Bob had it too - but I would still say he needs some sort of test to confirm that.

[delmbox]

Apologies, I see in another thread that Uncle Bob's friend was tested. So that removes any element of doubt for his friend, and it seems likely that Uncle Bob had it too - but I would still say he needs some sort of test to confirm that.

I accept your apology. Also FYI, Lee Peltier doesn't play for Cardiff City anymore. He signed for WBA in the last transfer window

[Hilts]

I know loads of people convinced theyve had it. They probably havent. The NHS worker I know had all the symptoms and had the testers up the house. She was really ill. Negative result.

Bob coming back from Spain with all the symptoms and his friend testing positive the likelihood is it probably was. Still without the test you cant be 100%.

[Heisenberg]

I accept your apology. Also FYI, Lee Peltier doesn't play for Cardiff City anymore. He signed for WBA in the last transfer window

Jirga doesn't support Cardiff City anymore. How was he supposed to know that?

[CCFCC3PO]

I know loads of people convinced theyve had it. They probably havent. The NHS worker I know had all the symptoms and had the testers up the house. She was really ill. Negative result.

Bob coming back from Spain with all the symptoms and his friend testing positive the likelihood is it probably was. Still without the test you cant be 100%.

Yep! They are testing about 8000 sick people a day, and many results come back negative despite people showing symptoms. Those people have the flu. Which is what I was alluding to earlier in the thread.

[CCFCC3PO]

Jirga doesn't support Cardiff City anymore. How was he supposed to know that?

Where do you get that impression? I haven't been watching much football lately because of a family issue so I apologise for naming Peltier in a rush to make a point.

[delmbox]

Where do you get that impression? I haven't been watching much football lately because of a family issue so I apologise for naming Peltier in a rush to make a point.

I accept your apology

[cyril evans awaydays]

Where do you get that impression? I haven't been watching much football lately because of a family issue so I apologise for naming Peltier in a rush to make a point.

He probably looked at your previous posts, saw that whenever Cardiff City was mentioned it was negatively and leapt to conclusions.

The better answer of course would have been Who's Jirga?

[Heisenberg]

Where do you get that impression? I haven't been watching much football lately because of a family issue so I apologise for naming Peltier in a rush to make a point.

You've stated it probably a hundred times that you gave up supporting the club during the rebrand and I don't remember you saying that you had started supporting them again. Apologies if I missed it... Not sure what other usernames you're using at the moment. Maybe you could 'Do Me A Faerber' and clarify which other ones you go by?

[lardy]

He probably looked at your previous posts, saw that whenever Cardiff City was mentioned it was negatively and leapt to conclusions.

The better answer of course would have been Who's Jirga?

Actually I think the correct response is "What's a Jirga?"

[Heisenberg]

Actually I think the correct response is "What's a Jirga?"

I still remember one of Croesy's aliases replying to someone "why do you keep saying Croeso to me? What does it mean?"

[CCFCC3PO]

You've stated it probably a hundred times that you gave up supporting the club during the rebrand and I don't remember you saying that you had started supporting them again. Apologies if I missed it... Not sure what other usernames you're using at the moment. Maybe you could 'Do Me A Faerber' and clarify which other ones you go by?

You obviously have me confused with someone else.

[CCFCC3PO]

Actually I think the correct response is "What's a Jirga?"

A Jirga? As in a Loya Jirga? That is something in Afghanistan if my memory serves me correctly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loya_jirga

[cyril evans awaydays]

A Jirga? As in a Loya Jirga? That is something in Afghanistan if my memory serves me correctly.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loya_jirga

Kris in a Badly Ironed Shirt.........you might be right!

[CCFCC3PO]

Kris in a Badly Ironed Shirt.........you might be right!

Wrong thread I think

[Heisenberg]

Kris in a Badly Ironed Shirt.........you might be right!

S'not him, mate. Obviously have him confused with someone else who is incredibly negative about the CCFC, slags off Mike Morris & his messageboard
and posts about people pirating football matches as "stealing".

Sorry, CCFC3P0, you're not the droid we're looking for.

[CCFCC3PO]

S'not him, mate. Obviously have him confused with someone else who is incredibly negative about the CCFC, slags off Mike Morris & his messageboard
and posts about people pirating football matches as "stealing".

Sorry, CCFC3P0, you're not the droid we're looking for.

Good, maybe we can get back on topic?

[Don Corleone]

Yep! They are testing about 8000 sick people a day, and many results come back negative despite people showing symptoms. Those people have the flu. Which is what I was alluding to earlier in the thread.

My wife is a pharmacist and being asked to do a lot extra hours. Last Monday she came home from work and collapsed into bed. That same night my son and myself both started shivering, achy, sore throat, I felt a little breathless one of the days but no cough and no high temp. My wife couldn’t get out of bed for the next 6 days and a had a very high temp and lost her taste but no cough and no breathing difficulties. She’s finally seems to be coming through it today. My son and myself improved after around 4 days. Was it the virus? I suspect it was the flu, though unusual we all came down on the same night at the same time. The point is without testing we will never know as I suspect will millions of others who have some but not all of the symptoms. So I’ve no idea how they will ever monitor these cases

[CCFCC3PO]

My wife is a pharmacist and being asked to do a lot extra hours. Last Monday she came home from work and collapsed into bed. That same night my son and myself both started shivering, achy, sore throat, I felt a little breathless one of the days but no cough and no high temp. My wife couldn’t get out of bed for the next 6 days and a had a very high temp and lost her taste but no cough and no breathing difficulties. She’s finally seems to be coming through it today. My son and myself improved after around 4 days. Was it the virus? I suspect it was the flu, though unusual we all came down on the same night at the same time. The point is without testing we will never know as I suspect will millions of others who have some but not all of the symptoms. So I’ve no idea how they will ever monitor these cases

The hope is that there will be an antibody test soon. The UK are pinning a lot of hopes on that.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I think supermarkets and petrol stations are the main spreaders now, we probably need tighter measures and improvements there!

I'd feel safer on a walk or bike ride than a trip to the supermarket!

Add to that hospitals, public transport, anywhere where people are in contact with people from outside of your household. That's why isolation is so important.