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Interesting articles below :
It appears Spain gave up the vacine in 1981 and in Ital in 1985 we went on longer up to 2005 I believe its was replaced by by a targeted program for babies
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-he...-idUKKBN21K36K
https://www.theguardian.com/society/...ools.education
Can't help but feel this shouldn't be the final paragraph. Perhaps a bit earlier?
Scientists say it will take several months to get results from trials testing the BCG vaccine to fight COVID-19. In the meantime, people should not rush to get it because it has not been widely tested in adults and might be harmful. Also, a run on the BCG vaccine to fight COVID-19 might cause shortages for children who need it to prevent TB.
The projection now is we will have more deaths than Spain and Italy anyway.
I never had a bcg.
I think we have to hope that modelling isn't accurate because that would be devestatingOriginally Posted by insider
I agree
It's not accurate at all. Our trajectory is almost exactly the same curve but we have fewer deaths due to lower population.
Lower population than who?
It is irresponsible reporting. Most of these treatments are nothing more than trials, they provide false hope and, as we saw in America, people have died from taking the news as factual.
It is not accurate because they have put in the wrong parameters. The range (worst case and best case) is also pretty large for a model.
Sorry I've just checked this and I'm completely ignorant.
Our trajectory may end up being the same. The fact it looks the same at the moment is because their projections are based on the outcomes in Spain and Italy. That's why the model is flawed, in my opinion. That's not to say it could be absolutely spot on, but I think that would be more of a lucky guess than an educated model.
What parameters have they used and what should they have used?
i seem to remember that the bcg was the one that left a small scar on your arm when it was given
I think that's the one yeah, can't remember what it was for though.
Edit - TB
BCG inoculations are still given routinely in the UK to children born of Asian or mixed race parents
Normally at around 4-6 months old
I remember the BCG as the one out of the occasional injections we were given in school that was thought of as the most frightening - there were a lot of really scared kids, including myself, on the morning we were given it, but, in the event, it didn't seem too bad at all.
That projection is covered in more detail in this piece;-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts
which includes a chart showing that the deaths per day figure will climb over the next week or so to peak at over 2,900 in nine days time, but if you look at it closely, you'll see that the figure was supposed to go past the 1,000 per day mark on Sunday and should have been within the 1.2/1/3 k range on Monday and yesterday - the reported figures were 621 on Sunday, 439 on Monday and 786 yesterday, so,on three days when it was projected that around 3,500 people would die, 1846 did, that's around 53% of the predicted figure.
The main one that they mention on there are ICU beds. It isn't taking into consideration the increase in ICU beds as far as I can see.
True, and small changes in the model will have huge implications in later projections. There's lots of models, I'm wondering why they chose to go with this one.
I daresay because 66,000 UK deaths, a figure that was nearly three and a half times higher than in any other European country, does grab your attention at a time when most of the projections I've seen lately have been saying something like 20,000 or lower.
Apparently it was an average of different models.
The number of deaths reported today in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is over 900 which is, by some way, the worst yet and certainly no cause for celebration, but it's also in the region of four to five hundred down on the figure projected by the model in the links posted elsewhere in this thread.
This was the daisy chain vaccination wasn't it?, I remember having this
that was a different one again i think
I thought that, a 6 tiny needle injection done on your upper arm. Everyone used to say if it did a certain thing, swelled or changed colour or something, you'd have to have a different one with a "huge" needle but of course no one ever did lol
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