"The disease can jump up at any time," WHO emergencies head Dr. Mike Ryan said.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/w...id-19-n1214406
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"The disease can jump up at any time," WHO emergencies head Dr. Mike Ryan said.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/w...id-19-n1214406
I just get the feeling that the only thing that could put a stop to people starting to ignore the lockdown, or social distancing guidelines, is a massive 2nd wave in somewhere like Spain or Italy.
It seems pretty obvious that you can get a second wave anywhere the virus is declining. If it wasn't declining it wouldn't be a second wave would it?
I second wave "Could" that magic word again. But in fact you may get a second wave whenever you lift quarantine restrictions, whether earlier or later, then again you may not!
Isn't the scientific basis that it speads quite easily when people are interacting closely? If everything goes back to normal you'd expect a jump in number of infections, you just have to hope people are behaving considerately so it doesn't spread as quickly as it did when everyone was acting as normal and that the people who've had the virus will be immune to getting it again.
Maybe I don't understand by what you mean by no scientific basis?
No historical precedent of a second wave of a virus? There definitely is.
Unless someone can see into the future what else are you basing an hypothosis on other than assumptions and predictions? Scientific assumptions and predictions are usually pretty acurate too, seems a strange reason to doubt something. Do you have a scientific background? You seem very sure about this.
I doubt that many, if any, scientists will be basing their "assumptions, predictions and speculations" on historical precedent.
This is not how modelling works.
They will base their models on the number of people carrying the infection at the time that lockdown measures ease, for example. The data that was present in 1918 for the Spanish flu, for example, is less relevant in a more global time - but it's known R rate can be used as a data point to calculate the effects on a population of a virus that is more infectious. The rate of infection is higher for covid-19 than flu (at the base level of no preventative measures being undertaken).
There will be a better set of data available to modellers now, based on the effect on infections of the various actions that have been undertaken. This is partly why we will emerge from lockdown gradually (although the major reason is safety). Example, what happens to the rate of infection when schools re-open. Two weeks later, you open up the shops - what effect did this have on the rate of infection. And on it goes.
Also, just because there was a second wave in Country X, it does not follow that Country Y will get a second wave. And, just because Pandemic 1918 had a more serious second wave, it does not imply that Pandemic 2020 will too.
The "assumption" (there are not many of those), "predictions" (it's actually called modelling) and speculations (again, it is called modelling) are based on known data. They are not a prediction of what will happen, but they will provide guidance on what steps are most effective in keeping rates of infection low, and what the effects of easing restrictions will be based on the number of people infected.
The scientific basis for a second wave:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/
The first wave is surely a pretty good scientific basis for the second wave anyway isn't it?
Am I being stupid here? I feel like I'm really missing something.
I said that, the first wave was caused by people getting infected going about daily life. Unless the virus disappears completely people going back to every day life are going to start spreading it again and you'll get another peak that way.
That's ignoring the fact that they expect a second wave in the autumn too.
What is the progress of the vaccine? If it's going to come by autumn, couldn't it offset the effects of the second wave a bit? I do worry that if we get back to normal too soon then a second wave would happen as people may assume the danger has gone and that seems to be happening now. First time, hardly anyone had the foresight to know what'll happen but we can learn from what has happened and what is happening and apply that to pre-empt the second wave. But issue is whether the government would do anything or have a reactive approach again
A second wave will happen. The virus isn't going to disappear on its own, and the world won't be in lockdown until then, so it's inevitable.
Will there be a vaccine by then? Seems hard to believe there'll be one that's tested, effective and mass produced in less than six months.
But there's also no real.reason for governments not to respond much better this time, other than incompetence. Hopefully outbreaks should be more easily contained.
From my experience it’s the old ****ers who will transmit a 2nd wave. Had to tell one up m&s earlier.