Ukraine Conflict Getting Very Close

[life on mars]

Countries advising thier citizens to leave immediately, wonder if there is new Intel ?

[Dorcus]

Countries advising thier citizens to leave immediately, wonder if there is new Intel ?

It rather does sound like it's imminent. I imagine satellite and other information leads the US to believe everything is now in place for an invasion.

[MOZZER2]

Russian diplomatic staff are leaving Ukraine, according to report by RIA Novosti, a Russian state-owned news agency.

[bobh]

Putin's mad enough to invade.

[blue matt]

we are about to send over more troops, one of the dads of one of my players was told yesterday to be on standby and expect to go this weekend

[B. Oddie]

I hope there's no war at all. Nobody benefits but if there is to be a war, I hope the UK stays well out of it.

[Rjk]

keep your eyes peeled for Facebook memes saying that NATO is the aggressor, Putin is right to invade etc

[MOZZER2]

Germany calls on its nationals to leave Ukraine immediately

[light up the darkness]

All nato troops including British and American are being withdrawn from the country and will be gone by this weekend.

Relocation to NATO bases in Eastern Europe

Invasion scheduled for next Wednesday.

[tforturton]

It's a strange business. I'm sure that at some point Russia will invade. But Putin is being encouraged by the fact that the West seem almost happy to let him; Biden says that not one American solider will fight in Ukraine, while the UK sends the simpering Liz Truss to tell that him we'll wave some sanctions at them. I bet he's really scared. It's all so similar to the days leading up to the start of World War Two - lots of appeasing going on, with everyone wringing their hands, but doing very little.
Russia only respond to force. If America landed some troops in Ukraine, the Russians might scream and shout about aggression, but they'd be far less likely to cross the border.
I think I might go out and fill the car up. If anything kicks off, fuel prices will go through the roof.

[xsnaggle]

It was previously said that the threat of invasion wasn't immediate because despite the large numbers of troop there were no medical support units in the mix, and they would clearly be sorely needed in an attack.

That must have changed quite dramatically in the last 48 hours or so.

If the Russian Generals think the Ukrainians will just roll over I think they are in for a dreadful shock.

[life on mars]

Some say Russia is there to deter the Ukraine joining NATO or Europe surely an invasion would create this ??

Is this the poker game plan ?

[blue matt]

It was previously said that the threat of invasion wasn't immediate because despite the large numbers of troop there were no medical support units in the mix, and they would clearly be sorely needed in an attack.

That must have changed quite dramatically in the last 48 hours or so.

If the Russian Generals think the Ukrainians will just roll over I think they are in for a dreadful shock.

they are outgunned, little aerial support ( though I believe the UK have sent over rapier to combat that, or were talking about it ) a massive amount of Russian tanks on the border ( we also have sent a few Javelin's to help with that ), but they will be fighting street to street and we know thats tough and slow going, wouldn't think that will bother Putin though, the press will report victories and the public will lap it up

[goats]

Putin will have a nightmare on his doorstep for years and years if he does. Ukraine has 45 million people….Chechnya it isn’t.

[MOZZER2]

can see energy prices in the west taking another hit especially now china are in bed with russia

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...ce-2022-02-04/

[Rock_Flock_of_Five]

But, but, Putin and his cronies have said they have no plans to invade the Ukraine?

[Rock_Flock_of_Five]

they are outgunned, little aerial support ( though I believe the UK have sent over rapier to combat that, or were talking about it ) a massive amount of Russian tanks on the border ( we also have sent a few Javelin's to help with that ), but they will be fighting street to street and we know thats tough and slow going, wouldn't think that will bother Putin though, the press will report victories and the public will lap it up

When the Russian soldiers are repatriated in body bags, public opinion could quickly turn against Putin.
The Russian GDP is less than that of a state like California. I don't think the Russian people will stomach a costly war.

[chrisp_1927]

keep your eyes peeled for Facebook memes saying that NATO is the aggressor, Putin is right to invade etc

Eagerly shared by a bunch of scum who think they're a cut above the 'sheeple '. Will keep the antivaxers busy i suppose, another cause they can jump straight into

[delmbox]

When the Russian soldiers are repatriated in body bags, public opinion could quickly turn against Putin.
The Russian GDP is less than that of a state like California. I don't think the Russian people will stomach a costly war.

I don't think Putin particularly cares what the Russian people think though

[LeningradCowboy]

I don't think Putin particularly cares what the Russian people think though

Exactly.

[MacAdder]

I hope there's no war at all. Nobody benefits but if there is to be a war, I hope the UK stays well out of it.

War, what is it good for, it's good for business..

[ToTaL ITK]

they are outgunned, little aerial support ( though I believe the UK have sent over rapier to combat that, or were talking about it ) a massive amount of Russian tanks on the border ( we also have sent a few Javelin's to help with that ), but they will be fighting street to street and we know thats tough and slow going, wouldn't think that will bother Putin though, the press will report victories and the public will lap it up

that didn't stop ISIS or the taliban or the FNL for that matter..guerilla warfare it will be.

[xsnaggle]

It could easily turn into a repeat of their incursion into Afghanistan, which was a disaster in terms of the prestige of their military and in loss of men. And the body bags going home did have a great affect on the peoples attitude to things. It took them 10 years to admit defeat but it was clear in 10 months.

The superiority in aircraft and tanks is less relevant that you may think. The more their aircraft fly the more there is a chance they can be hit, and unlike the planes of yesteryear you can't replace a lost fighter with another one rolling out of the factory in 2 weeks. That is why good quality anti aircraft weaponry is more valuable to the defender than aircraft.
As for tanks, modern warfare theory is that you don't fight tanks with tanks, you fight tanks with infantry properly trained in the use of anti tank weaponry, which again large quantities of have been given to Ukraine, and British soldiers have been training soldiers in their use.
The other problem they will have is a swift advance will stretch their supply lines and leave pockets of Ukrainians in place behind the advance to disrupt and destroy the back up troop which, in all such scenarios are the less effective less well trained/disciplined.
Again it is the general accepted doctrine that to attack a prepared defended position you need 3 times the force you are attacking. So to attack a regiment dug in you need a brigade and so on. And the defenders know the ground and have time to lay traps. If you use that 3/1 logic then 130,000 men is not that many considering for every 1 who is a "teeth arm" soldier there are 5 non teeth arm soldiers to feed supply protect and care for. The sheer logistics of it is quite formidable and if it isn't run right (Or allowed to run right) it can be self defeating.
If Putin tries and fails, even if it takes him years to admit failure, he will never recover from it. If he can find a way out without losing face he will take it

They may well be able to push and armoured thrust straight in to Kiev in a matter of hours but I'd be very surprised if in the days weeks and months that followed they will sorely wish they weren't there.

[life on mars]

that didn't stop ISIS or the taliban or the FNL for that matter..guerilla warfare it will be.

It's a big country , wonder if we would see Western backed covert support for the Ukraine guerilla warfare campaign ?

[Rock_Flock_of_Five]

It could easily turn into a repeat of their incursion into Afghanistan, which was a disaster in terms of the prestige of their military and in loss of men. And the body bags going home did have a great affect on the peoples attitude to things. It took them 10 years to admit defeat but it was clear in 10 months.

The superiority in aircraft and tanks is less relevant that you may think. The more their aircraft fly the more there is a chance they can be hit, and unlike the planes of yesteryear you can't replace a lost fighter with another one rolling out of the factory in 2 weeks. That is why good quality anti aircraft weaponry is more valuable to the defender than aircraft.
As for tanks, modern warfare theory is that you don't fight tanks with tanks, you fight tanks with infantry properly trained in the use of anti tank weaponry, which again large quantities of have been given to Ukraine, and British soldiers have been training soldiers in their use.
The other problem they will have is a swift advance will stretch their supply lines and leave pockets of Ukrainians in place behind the advance to disrupt and destroy the back up troop which, in all such scenarios are the less effective less well trained/disciplined.
Again it is the general accepted doctrine that to attack a prepared defended position you need 3 times the force you are attacking. So to attack a regiment dug in you need a brigade and so on. And the defenders know the ground and have time to lay traps. If you use that 3/1 logic then 130,000 men is not that many considering for every 1 who is a "teeth arm" soldier there are 5 non teeth arm soldiers to feed supply protect and care for. The sheer logistics of it is quite formidable and if it isn't run right (Or allowed to run right) it can be self defeating.
If Putin tries and fails, even if it takes him years to admit failure, he will never recover from it. If he can find a way out without losing face he will take it

They may well be able to push and armoured thrust straight in to Kiev in a matter of hours but I'd be very surprised if in the days weeks and months that followed they will sorely wish they weren't there.

Chechnya would seem like a walk in the park compared with what they'd face in the Ukraine.