Reply With QuoteThat is going to depend on where you liveOriginally Posted by Whisperer
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So that explains your hatred for Corbyn. I wonder why so many left of centre Jews supported him so strongly? Even to the point of rejecting Zionism like him.
That is going to depend on where you live
They aren't though are they. They are actually largely unaware (because many people are happy to mislead) that things are generally no better and often worse within the EU.
The problem with your mistruths on this is that you will get caught out. The reasons you blame on Brexit will look pretty different in a years time..what will you do then?
Find something else to moan about no doubt, but what I wonder?
No mistruths at all, latest polls show more and more people being enlightened.
Or more and more people are being misinformed?
Because as discussed elsewhere, unemployment is much lower here, inflation is lower than the EU average, the FTSE is near a record high, the wage/inflation ratio is far better here than the EU (though still negative) etc etc etc.
You read some of the media and esp some people on twitter and the opposite of reality is it portrayed.
Either way, it isn't going to happen so really it is long past the time to put this EUanon stuff to bed and move on.
But where are the people who seem to be disillusioned with the Brexit project getting their misinformation from? Certainly not the two main political parties who are either still advocates or mute. Nor the media who, the Guardian and Independent apart are either neutral or very pro-Brexit.
Perhaps, as I pointed out to you yesterday, the fact that alone in the G7 our GDP is still lower than it was pre-Covid, and that all forecasts put us bottom or near bottom of that league going forward. Maybe it's the OBR's latest statement based on evidence to date is that their impact assessment of a 15% reduction in GB trade activity remains sound. Or perhaps the promissory NHS banners on the side of buses no longer resonate with their actual experience. No GDP growth for three years is tangible in peoples lives who were sold false promises of milk and honey.
My judgment is that the forthcoming regulatory bonfire that the Tory zealots are trying to force through will further backfire when people actually see that the laws and regulations that the UK signed up to whilst part of the EU were overwhelmingly sensible and their loss will only benefit those seeking to make the UK Singapore on Thames.
Still, like Josie Wales, I am sure you will be with Farage, Rees-Mogg, Redwood and the gang as one of the last of the hold-outs.
See what you have done there Cyril, in a roundabout way is dismiss actual real data and instead promote a prediction, when economists are routinely wrong on those estimates. Which is more important? The prediction made on Saturday morning that City will lose a match, or the actual result?
I don't dispute whatsoever that times are tough - they are tough for me. My point is that they are tough almost everywhere and in many cases tougher. Brexit doesnt help but it doesn't hinder. The idea we would be growing our economy at a rate vastly higher than the EU now (were we still members) is clearly not true
It needs tweaking of course and the costs / benefits of anything are never equally spread but the causes of our problems are not related to it, yet there are some who, for their own personal or financial reasons will imply that it is.
And yes I do think one of the most negative aspects in the last 15 years in politics is that people can find their own 'news' and self filter etc so a rounded picture isn't being achieved and that does feed into misinformation on both sides.
But the fact remains, several years after the vote and two years after leaving, the big ticket economic stats do not point to any great problems here that don't also exist within the EU, and often worse.
Your last comment on Farage etc is just daft.
James, I am struggling to work out if you are kidding?
This isn't about who is 'winning' (on whatever time frame suits you). The idea that you think a smart response to 'we could rejoin' is 'well they ain't doing any better', is hilarious. Brexit was a knife fight, the EU has a few cuts (some countries more than others), we are on the ground bleeding out slowly.
Brexit has put barriers to trade and it is beyond doubt now that this has massively harmed the British economy. A better relationship could allow frictionless trade with the EU, improving the metrics for all involved. People are slowly waking up to the absolute fact that project delusion was embellished 50x more than project fear was.
Also we are a low wage economy (when you discount high earners) and have massive shortages in skill areas - health being one. In the short term, migration from countries that are lower down the totem pole but have adequate education pathways is exactly what we need. Freedom of movement gave us this, people could decide in a day to move here and take a skilled job, brexit has put up barriers and a big banner saying 'not welcome' in the eyes of many skilled Europeans. You would have to be a lunatic to move here from Canada, Australia, New Zealand.
Most of the reasons for unemployment being low are not desirable so it is funny when you and LOM wheel it out as a win.
Yes if they can't see it they can't see it, thankfully there is only a tiny amount of socialists left, they make a lot of noise, but it's just that they can never get any power and Starmer is killing them off.
You are rather making my point for me here. You are using terms such as 'knife fight', 'lying on the ground bleeding' etc. All very dramatic stuff that no doubt alarms people.
But if that's true would we not expect to see our GDP far lower? Our unemployment higher? Our wages lower? Inflation higher? Stock market lower etc etc etc?
That just isn't happening. My point is that its a mixed picture and that's my point because that's what the facts tell us.
Do you have any real evidence that we are a 'low wage economy?' minimum wages have risen sigificantly. Nothing I have seen suggests French or Germans etc are paid notably more.
You mention trade. Of course, trade with the EU will never be as hassle free as before but (in theory at least) trade with the rest of the world should become far easier. Irrespective, UK exports to the EU are at a record high. Again, this isn't the narrative you and others push out.
https://www.ft.com/content/47fe0d2a-...2-3b37f7f099e4
Perfect? Far from it. But lying on the floor, bleeding? Nope. Not true.
No dispute on what you say about income inequality btw. We are probably wholly in agreement on the need to address that.
Oh Jesus Christ James, knife fight = I was trying to demonstrate that brexit isn't a zero sum game where someone wins and someone loses, the EU lose and we lose. It is obvious from your previous posts that you don't understand this concept.
From the ft article in the other thread:
"Britain is a different story. While the top earners rank fifth, the average household ranks 12th and the poorest 5 per cent rank 15th. Far from simply losing touch with their western European peers, last year the lowest-earning bracket of British households had a standard of living that was 20 per cent weaker than their counterparts in Slovenia"
"It’s a similar story in the middle. In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. On present trends, the average Slovenian household will be better off than its British counterpart by 2024, and the average Polish family will move ahead before the end of the decade. A country in desperate need of migrant labour may soon have to ask new arrivals to take a pay cut."
https://www.ft.com/content/ef265420-...8-c951baa68945
Please prove my opinion of you wrong and actually read and digest it for once. We are a high wage economy for high earners and a low wage economy for median/low earners.
I'm probably stuck here but my advice to my nieces and nephews is to start learning a few other languages.
Eric, chill out. We seem to be talking about different things.
I don't disagree that the UK is an unequal society. All are, but the UK more skewed than most. That does not make us a "low wage economy".
I just checked. Our average wage in 2020 in USD is $3952. Germany's was $4045 and France $3616.
Our minimum wage is also higher, marginally, by around 50 cents.
The cost of living of course comes into this but you can't just claim that the UK is a low wage economy and then get uppity when people question it. It's not true. On no measure are we a 'low wage economy'.
And how you think any of that proves anything related to Brexit is beyond me as the more important data you seem to largely ignore.
My only point is that there is a load of data, none of it is conclusive and that our peers who have not left the EU are by and large not performing any better than us.
What from the above do you disagree with?
It's easy to tell me to "read and digest" the report. But I can say exactly the same to you.
Let's be clear about this:
If you are trying to prove the UK is an unequal society, then I entirely agree with you.
If you are saying that set of data over-rides GDP, unemployment, wage growth, stock market etc etc data and means that the country is in a huge mess because of leaving the EU then I wholly disagree because the data just doesn't support that argument.
If our GDP (and other stats) is consistently below our peers in the coming years then I will agree with many of you. But it doesn't seem to be happening.
But our GDP over the last few years since Brexit has been below our G7 competitors. It was starkly outlined in the Commons Library information posted yesterday. Not a forecast as you blithely dismissed but a fact as is we are the only member of the G7 for our GDP still to recover to prepandemic levels. By all means continue to take snapshots in time if it makes you feel more comfortable but what is the reason, despite more friction in trade with GB as a result of Brexit, that the Germans, French and Italians have recovered and grown over two and half years and we haven't do you think?
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...fings/sn02784/
I keep qualifying this as low wage economy for low/median earners. That is probably true and you accept this if you accept that our income inequality is high
Begs the question, if you know the UK has high income inequality then what use is an overall 'wage growth' statistic? Why use it to champion anything? Whose wage is growing? Does it matter?
Read that back and tell me why you would expect them to and why that would be evidence for it being right or wrong to leave/rejoin, it's bonkers how condescending you are in the rest of your post when you dont get this simple point. Brexit being bad for us mean its good for them, it's bad for everybody involved.My only point is that there is a load of data, none of it is conclusive and that our peers who have not left the EU are by and large not performing any better than us.
As for 'record trade with the EU', have you actually read the article because not only do they attribute it mostly to the unusual circumstances of war/energy prices. It is also measured absolute terms, can you think of any reason why this might be a bit of silly idea during a period where inflation is 10-12%. It's like when a government says 'record funding' every year, it's nonsense.
Probably a more sensible way to look at it:
"Research released today (19 October 2022) by the ESRI shows reductions in UK to EU goods trade by 16% and trade from the EU to UK by 20% relative to the scenario in which Brexit had not occurred. The comparison scenario is that trade with the UK should have been expected to grow at a similar pace to that of the same products being traded with other EU partner countries around the world. Although goods trade between the EU and UK recovered most of its previous level in value terms following the sharp fall in the early months of 2021, this recovery leaves it well below the levels that would have been expected if it had performed on a comparable level with other trade partners."
So as you can see, brexit has hurt us both.
Yeah but since 3 weeks ago at 4am our growth is better than Germany
All of our economies did not decline at an equal rate though did they. As was widely reported at the time the UK took a bigger hit to our economy than others. I think we locked down too late and and our initial hit was harder as a result.
I'm not a huge fan of G7 comparisons as it's a rather arbitrary group but I agree, not recovering to pre pandemic levels is not good and it's a statistic to include in the mix.
Bit for you to dismiss annual GDP growth so meekly when it is the first full year of data 'post covid' but then cling on to the headline about the G7 is rather disingenuous. Let's take them both on board as part of a wider look at GDP
after her staged arrest in Germany on Tuesday somehow Greta shows up now . its amazing what the script writers can do !
Greta Thunberg must have been “released” from the police. She just arrived in Davos.🤡 pic.twitter.com/8hZA6yldWC
— Dr. Anastasia Maria Loupis (@DrLoupis) January 19, 2023
Some independent investigative journalists collared here while she walked the streets. She comes across as an obvious fraud of the crisis actor type and an odd character to boot. Her earlier 'arrest' was plainly a photo op.
Rebel News reporters walked through Davos with Greta Thunberg for 20 minutes, asking questions that the other journalists with us angrily disapproved of.
— Ezra Levant 🍁🚛 (@ezralevant) January 20, 2023
Watch for yourself and answer the question I put to her: is she an expert — or just a child actor? pic.twitter.com/HsPeJW3BAu
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