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Thread: Welsh Independence

  1. #26

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    it's a lot wealthier than it would have been had it stayed in the uk
    counter factual history is full of what ifs. You have no idea if the Irish would be better or worse off. What we do know is they'd have a healthcare system in they remained in the UK.

    Is your plan post independence to remove the NHS and dismantle our education system, as both will be unaffordable. Certainly if the Irish can't afford either, what makes you think an independent Wales can? Or have we discovered oil under Bute Park?

  2. #27

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by HiVis View Post
    counter factual history is full of what ifs. You have no idea if the Irish would be better or worse off. What we do know is they'd have a healthcare system in they remained in the UK.

    Is your plan post independence to remove the NHS and dismantle our education system, as both will be unaffordable. Certainly if the Irish can't afford either, what makes you think an independent Wales can? Or have we discovered oil under Bute Park?
    Are you saying that they don't have healthcare or education in Ireland?

  3. #28

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by JamesWales View Post
    How do you know?
    there's about 100 years of evidence of where the UK decides to spend money and where it doesn't

  4. #29

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    Are you saying that they don't have healthcare or education in Ireland?
    If that's what you take from my post then there's little further to get discussed.

    FWIW, Ireland doesn't have an equivalent NHS because it cannot afford it. It's one of the reasons the catholic/nationalist community (who are now a majority) aren't rushing to vote for unification. Likewise education isn't as well funded per capita as the UK.

    Ireland is not wealthy, its GDP is all smoke and mirrors. If you cant see that then perhaps you joining discussions about macro economics is a bad idea.

  5. #30

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    there's about 100 years of evidence of where the UK decides to spend money and where it doesn't
    You've misunderstood. It isn't possible to say what Ireland would be like today if it remained inthe union. What we do know is that after a century NI has a national health service whereas the rest of the island does not.

  6. #31

    Re: Welsh Independence

    leprechaun economics

    If you read this, it may help you understand that what is really going on in the Irish economy.

  7. #32

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by HiVis View Post
    You've misunderstood. It isn't possible to say what Ireland would be like today if it remained inthe union. What we do know is that after a century NI has a national health service whereas the rest of the island does not.
    Ireland spends more on healthcare per capita than the UK does.

  8. #33

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    Ireland spends more on healthcare per capita than the UK does.


    World Bank report on spend as a percentage of GDP

    Ireland spends 6.68% (of its vastly inflated GDP) whereas the UK spends 10.15%.

    but lets say it does spend more, what does that mean in real terms - the US spends 15% of its GDP on healthcare and its certainly not a model we are looking to emulate.

  9. #34

    Re: Welsh Independence

    any comment on the leprechaun economics that vastly inflates the size of the Irish economy?

    In October 2017, the U.K. health-care journal The Lancet reported that leprechaun economics was distorting the understanding of comparative Irish health spending.

    In March 2018, the OECD showed that metrics of Irish public indebtedness were materially distorted by leprechaun economics.

    In February 2019, The Irish Times highlighted that Ireland's world-leading employee productivity statistics, were likely as a result of leprechaun economics effects.

    In July 2019, the Irish Times drew further parallels with "Leprechaun Economics" and OECD statistics that "... suggested Irish workers were the most productive on the planet, ..."

    In September 2019, the IMF, estimated that two thirds of Ireland's Financial Direct Investment (FDI) was "phantom", and referred to the underlying complications of leprechaun economics as, "Prominent cases include Irish GDP growth of 26 percent in 2015, following some multinationals’ relocation of intellectual property rights to Ireland".

  10. #35

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by HiVis View Post
    World Bank report on spend as a percentage of GDP

    Ireland spends 6.68% (of its vastly inflated GDP) whereas the UK spends 10.15%.

    but lets say it does spend more, what does that mean in real terms - the US spends 15% of its GDP on healthcare and its certainly not a model we are looking to emulate.
    in real terms it means that your argument that Ireland does not have an NHS because it cannot afford one is complete bollocks doesn't it? It is already paying more for healthcare than we are.

    It spends a bit less on education, but most of the disparity is in university funding - in terms of levels of education in the population I think they are doing slightly better than the UK.

  11. #36

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by HiVis View Post
    any comment on the leprechaun economics that vastly inflates the size of the Irish economy?
    Yes there is clearly an element of companies using Ireland as a tax haven distorting certain metrics (although there will be with the UK also, but not to as large a degree) - however Irish GDP overtook the UKs in about 2003, these articles are all taking about changes in 2015

  12. #37

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    in real terms it means that your argument that Ireland does not have an NHS because it cannot afford one is complete bollocks doesn't it? It is already paying more for healthcare than we are.

    It spends a bit less on education, but most of the disparity is in university funding - in terms of levels of education in the population I think they are doing slightly better than the UK.
    No. Ireland is playing catch up after years of underfunding. A lot of the expenditure is capital in nature - new hospitals, training, equipment - rather than service delivery. The Irish also font have purchase power parity given their indigenous pharma and healthcare sector is tiny compared to the UK.

    Ireland has been a notorious tax haven since the mid 1980s. Its GVA is less than the UK. How many Irish companies have you actually heard of? Yet if you go to Ireland you'll see familiar UK (and US) brands.

    If Ireland is such an economic powerhouse, why are 1 in 12 of its population working in the UK (500k v 6m population) whereas only 200k (or 1 in 300) of the UKs population working in Ireland?

    You only need to travel outside of Dublin to see an Irish infrastructure thats falling apart. Ireland is nowhere near as wealthy as the UK, and your continued claim otherwise makes you look foolish

  13. #38

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by HiVis View Post
    No. Ireland is playing catch up after years of underfunding. A lot of the expenditure is capital in nature - new hospitals, training, equipment - rather than service delivery. The Irish also font have purchase power parity given their indigenous pharma and healthcare sector is tiny compared to the UK.

    Ireland has been a notorious tax haven since the mid 1980s. Its GVA is less than the UK. How many Irish companies have you actually heard of? Yet if you go to Ireland you'll see familiar UK (and US) brands.

    If Ireland is such an economic powerhouse, why are 1 in 12 of its population working in the UK (500k v 6m population) whereas only 200k (or 1 in 300) of the UKs population working in Ireland?

    You only need to travel outside of Dublin to see an Irish infrastructure thats falling apart. Ireland is nowhere near as wealthy as the UK, and your continued claim otherwise makes you look foolish
    I've been to Ireland plenty of times, as part of their massive healthcare and pharma sector, and I really don't recognise this description of a country that is falling apart that you seem to be giving

  14. #39

    Re: Welsh Independence

    Quote Originally Posted by Rjk View Post
    I've been to Ireland plenty of times, as part of their massive healthcare and pharma sector, and I really don't recognise this description of a country that is falling apart that you seem to be giving
    Massive it's a country of 6m people. Having a few multinationals base their EMEA operations there doesn't make for a significant manufacturing base.

    The UK has been a wealthy country for hundreds of years. Ireland has a long way to go before it gets to anything like the UKs level of infrastructure.

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