Reply With QuoteWho cares.Originally Posted by Rjk
Unless any formula includes every external factor, it's meaningless.
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Say on average 77% of penalties are scored.
what is the % chance that a team will score exactly 1 from 5 penalties over the course of a season?
Who cares.
Unless any formula includes every external factor, it's meaningless.
it's fine to admit you don't know how to calculate it
It's not that difficult as a basic figure.
It's utterly meaningless though.
You could just not reply
77%
8%
0.77 x 0.23^4
= 0.2%
then there are 5 permutations, so 1%
we have a winner
Not strictly correct but I'd have to dig out my O level statistics exercise book to work it out.
It looks pretty correct to me.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial
I'm not convinced.
I think there's 2 different questions.
1. Given the chance of scoring a pen is 0.77, what are the chances of 1 successful pen in 5 attempts, or
2. Given that you will be awarded 5 pens, what are the chances of only 1 being successful.
In the second scenario, scoring a pen with you first attempt means that your next 4 are guaranteed missed.
Either way, 1 out of 5 is pretty shit.
If a Rotherham player hands the bell in the box on Thursday I hope our players crowd the ref telling him it didn’t happen.
Surely there are too many variants in order to predict how many would be scored. 92 league teams, 2 pen takers per team on average, weather conditions, pitch conditions, luck, dodgy bobble on the pen takers run up etc
There are soo many random options - I dont think you can accurately predict a success rate with any absolute certainty - and how boring would that be to know on average how many each team will score.
The answer is Ng
that answer would get you an F in my Uni
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