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Thread: Election Prediction

  1. #51

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bloop View Post
    If Billy Bragg can seriously consider voting LibDem in his own constituency (West Dorset I think), rather than Labour, just to get the Tories out, then I'm sure others can go against their own beliefs and morals to achieve the best result.
    If I was someone in Conservative central office I would be relishing the prospect of Labour et al using tactical voting/coalation in the general election. Probably the 1 thing that would see Starmer and Labour out within 6 months.

  2. #52

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bloop View Post
    If Billy Bragg can seriously consider voting LibDem in his own constituency (West Dorset I think), rather than Labour, just to get the Tories out, then I'm sure others can go against their own beliefs and morals to achieve the best result.
    Billy Bragg isn't really representative of the country though is he? Although I take your wider point. There's still a lot of politics to play mind

  3. #53

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bloop View Post
    If Billy Bragg can seriously consider voting LibDem in his own constituency (West Dorset I think), rather than Labour, just to get the Tories out, then I'm sure others can go against their own beliefs and morals to achieve the best result.
    I would vote liberals to get the Tories out

    In fact if there was no chance of a labour government but my vote would ensure a coalition anti tory government by voting Liberal in my constituency or green or whatever .....I would do it

  4. #54

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish View Post
    If I was someone in Conservative central office I would be relishing the prospect of Labour et al using tactical voting/coalation in the general election. Probably the 1 thing that would see Starmer and Labour out within 6 months.
    I beg to differ

    Lots of people will be doing it in marginal seats

  5. #55

    Re: Election Prediction

    The mood of the country seems to be more anti Tory than it is pro Labour - that certainly seemed to be the main conclusion to draw from the local elections anyway. Sites like these

    https://tacticalvote.co.uk/

    https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/ta...t/conservative

    make it easier for people considering voting tactically to find out how much it might affect the outcome in their constituency.

    Another factor worth considering is how would people who voted tactically for a party to try and defeat the Conservatives feel if their choice of party then helped prop up a minority tory Government? I think the Lib Dems suffered because of that after the 2010 election.

  6. #56

    Re: Election Prediction

    I genuinely wish we had a strong liberal party and they and the labour party would team up to keep the Tories out

    It's embarrassing to see that Ed davey and the previous chinless wonder farron saying after by elections or council elections that they are serious potential government in waiting

    Bin that nonsense and team up with labour

  7. #57

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    I genuinely wish we had a strong liberal party and they and the labour party would team up to keep the Tories out

    It's embarrassing to see that Ed davey and the previous chinless wonder farron saying after by elections or council elections that they are serious potential government in waiting

    Bin that nonsense and team up with labour
    I still remember David Steel standing up at his party's conference telling delegates to 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government'.
    Other than Clegg's effort in 2010, we're still waiting 🙂

  8. #58

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by The Bloop View Post
    I still remember David Steel standing up at his party's conference telling delegates to 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government'.
    Other than Clegg's effort in 2010, we're still waiting 🙂
    I would vote for a merged Labour and Liberal led moderate alternative to the tories

    I think it would sweep up

    I am sick to death of the opposition fannying about

  9. #59

    Re: Election Prediction

    IPSOS Say :

    UK Voting Intention (change since March)
    Labour 44% (-5), Conservatives 28% (+2), Liberal Democrats 13% (+2), Green Party 6% (nc), Other 8% (nc)

    Our latest Political Monitor release of 23 May shows that 2 in 3 Britons expect Labour to win most MPs at the next General Election.

  10. #60

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    I beg to differ

    Lots of people will be doing it in marginal seats
    Yes, but there's a difference between voters opting to vote tactically and two separate political parties coming to an 'understanding' to either not put candidates up or not go canvassing in certain wards. Starmer is going to be the next PM, 100%, but if it turns out he's worked with the lib dems to help him get there, there will be another election within a year.

  11. #61

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish View Post
    Yes, but there's a difference between voters opting to vote tactically and two separate political parties coming to an 'understanding' to either not put candidates up or not go canvassing in certain wards. Starmer is going to be the next PM, 100%, but if it turns out he's worked with the lib dems to help him get there, there will be another election within a year.
    I can understand the first bit of your argument but why would whether Labour got found out working with the Lib-Dems rather than a softer "understanding" lead to another election within a year? If there is a pact or something looser identified after the election what are the drivers to trigger a new election?

  12. #62

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish View Post
    Yes, but there's a difference between voters opting to vote tactically and two separate political parties coming to an 'understanding' to either not put candidates up or not go canvassing in certain wards. Starmer is going to be the next PM, 100%, but if it turns out he's worked with the lib dems to help him get there, there will be another election within a year.
    I beg to differ

    People will drop the political party adherence to get the Tories out

    Plenty of people who vote Labour will vote Liberal in towns like Portsmouth where a vote for Labour might be wasted

  13. #63

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by SLUDGE FACTORY View Post
    I beg to differ

    People will drop the political party adherence to get the Tories out

    Plenty of people who vote Labour will vote Liberal in towns like Portsmouth where a vote for Labour might be wasted
    What difference will it make Sludge?

  14. #64
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    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish View Post
    Yes, but there's a difference between voters opting to vote tactically and two separate political parties coming to an 'understanding' to either not put candidates up or not go canvassing in certain wards. Starmer is going to be the next PM, 100%, but if it turns out he's worked with the lib dems to help him get there, there will be another election within a year.
    I have listened to a couple of podcasts that did a serious analytical job on the local elections, and both concluded that there was a combination of more voters behaving tactically to get the Tories out, and the non-Tory parties getting into local pacts without the support or endorsement of their national organisations. That usually just came down to directing money/leaflets/posters/social media and canvassers towards the best anti-Tory outcome, not to standing down candidates.

    The psephological (electoral number crunching) conclusions were that this is now happening on a bigger scale than ever before. I was convinced.

  15. #65

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by jon1959 View Post
    I have listened to a couple of podcasts that did a serious analytical job on the local elections, and both concluded that there was a combination of more voters behaving tactically to get the Tories out, and the non-Tory parties getting into local pacts without the support or endorsement of their national organisations. That usually just came down to directing money/leaflets/posters/social media and canvassers towards the best anti-Tory outcome, not to standing down candidates.

    The psephological (electoral number crunching) conclusions were that this is now happening on a bigger scale than ever before. I was convinced.
    Pretty much the same thing though - an 'informal agreement' canvassing/not canvassing in certain wards. The local elections pretty much go under the political radar when you consider only 1 in 3 eligible to vote bothered to do so.

  16. #66

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by cyril evans awaydays View Post
    I can understand the first bit of your argument but why would whether Labour got found out working with the Lib-Dems rather than a softer "understanding" lead to another election within a year? If there is a pact or something looser identified after the election what are the drivers to trigger a new election?
    I just think it would make him look weak - having to rely on an election 'stitch up' to get to power. The Lib Dems would want something out of it, and that sort of thing never goes down with the electorate - whether you voted Labour or conservative.

  17. #67

    Re: Election Prediction

    Quote Originally Posted by A Quiet Monkfish View Post
    I just think it would make him look weak - having to rely on an election 'stitch up' to get to power. The Lib Dems would want something out of it, and that sort of thing never goes down with the electorate - whether you voted Labour or conservative.
    All those things in the scenario you paint may be true. I still can't see how any of it triggers a new election within a year though!

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