Reply With QuoteIndia . China . USA ?? Check out the average pay might explain why they sit where they areOriginally Posted by MOZZER2
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No you didn't, but the entire thread is based on an interview with Nige, and yet it's the guy who quite literally posting statistics from the IMF that gets called out! So interview with partisan politician=good evidence. Real IMF data = Bad data? That is certainly very modern thinking, whether it's 2022 or 2023 I don't know!
I haven't discounted anything. I'm merely saying that data from the last three years is plainly clouded by huge external factors that mean an assessment of Brexit is very difficult to make, and as such 2023 will give a clearer picture. This doesn't seem like a remotely controversial thing to say to me.
I am sorry that the full year 2022 GDP data is on page 9 of the IMF global update I posted. I will have a word with them. I mentioned the page to help people find it. Yeah, slightly hidden isn't it, and less SHOUTY than headlines.
I will very rarely refer to G7 by the way. It's a very arbitrary group and I will always try to compare to Western peers of a greater number than 7. Not that it makes it irrelevant, because it really doesn't, but it's a very small number and at any point four of them are BEST!!, WORST!!, SECOND BEST!!, BEST!! etc. If you look at the data though the huge fall was in 2020 which was generally worse for us than others. I don't know why that was. Possibly we weren't sufficiently prepared?
India . China . USA ?? Check out the average pay might explain why they sit where they are
There aren’t just articles there, there are reports - real data as you call it.
All presented through the sometimes distorted lens of the media. Well, here is the same for Germany, all negative articles from the last few months. From this, can we assume that staying in the EU has "failed"? I would suggest not.
https://think.ing.com/snaps/german-zew-may23/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...erns-resurface
https://www.euractiv.com/section/pol...erman-economy/
https://www.politico.eu/article/germ...t-at-year-end/
https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...q1-2023-04-28/
https://www.ft.com/content/dc978c84-...5-7d59e1441475
Did you bother looking at the links I posted? Two of them were from studies produced by the organisation linked to and another one was from the office of budget responsibility - you’re the one relying on the “sometimes distorted lens of the media”.
The FT is a paid link - so unless you are a signed up member - did you read it (or even check it was a paid link) or just cut paste in the thread to make it look like you had....
The bbc was interesting "There was an initial dip in the amount the UK exported to the EU. Once teething problems were dealt with, trade volumes, recovered to pre-pandemic levels, according to official figures. But it could be argued trade might have grown more if it hadn't been for Brexit."
I thought you stated 'facts' rather than opinion. But anyway - it is very hard to know where we would have been - as we've had covid for 2-3 years and then Ukraine. So saying we could have been better hmmn.... We could have stayed in the Prem if the plane didn't crash or we may have gone down, if it turned out he wasnt that great after all.
As I said a few pages back - doing work for a logistics company that has had to deal first hand with all the Brexit regs and paper work, I'm amazed we are even still in one piece as a country. But - the company I did some work for - are on top of it now - new systems and processes in place and they are doing lots of trade globally as well as EU countries.
To see how things have panned out - I'd give it about 3-4 years (or whenever Ukraine settles down a bit). On the whole though - so far, the admin / process - seems to have been pretty woeful (probably as this has never happened before)
Bob, you're wasting your time with Jimbo. He has a tin ear when it comes to reason. Jimbo doesn't know what he's talking about.
Jimbo, you're wasting your time with Bob. He has a tin ear when it comes to reason. Bob doesn't know what he's talking about.
It's been a strange few years hasn't it. And at the end of it your vision of reason is a Nigel Farage TV interview and your vision of a lack of reason is the presentation of GDP growth figures by the IMF. Funny old world!
How do you know about what I've said a few years ago? You've only been posting on here for five months?
I know the FT is behind a paywall, that's why I was surprised that I was able to read the whole article when I first clicked on that link - it's not showing it any more now though.
I've managed to find the article, from November of last year, on Twitter, here it is.
Chris Giles in London NOVEMBER 30 2022
953
Print this page
This is the first part in a new FT series, Brexit: the next phase.
Almost two years after Britain left the EU, economists have reached a consensus: Brexit has significantly worsened the country’s economic performance.
They agree that the vote to leave the bloc has made households poorer, that negotiating uncertainties have taken their toll on business investment and that new barriers to trade have damaged economic links between the UK and EU.
While economists and officials do not agree on the precise magnitude of the Brexit effect, they consider it to be large. They also agree that new trade agreements with countries such as Australia and regulatory freedoms gained from leaving the bloc do not come close to offsetting the damage.
Andrew Bailey, Bank of England governor, told MPs this month that the central bank assumed that Brexit would cause “a long-run downshift in the level of productivity of a bit over 3 per cent” — most of which had already happened. “We have not changed our view on that so far,” he said.
The Office for Budget Responsibility, the fiscal watchdog, expects the UK economy to end up 4 per cent smaller than it would otherwise have been — a £100bn a year hit to prosperity — leaving the public finances less sustainable in part due to “a significant adverse impact on UK trade”.
Some former officials have gone further. “Put it this way, in 2016 the British economy was 90 per cent the size of Germany’s,” said Mark Carney, former BoE governor. “Now it is less than 70 per cent.”
Brexit: the next phase
• Brexit and the economy: the hit has been ‘substantially negative’
• The UK-Australia trade deal: “too much for far too little”
• Brexit: Has business found its voice?
• Politics and Brexit: Fear of the ‘B’ word
The Canadian former governor has been widely criticised for his use of this statistic, with Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, saying the apparently dramatic contraction stemmed from currency movements, not Brexit. But Portes also acknowledged that there is no doubt that the negative effects of Brexit can be seen both in UK economic data and in-depth academic work.
Before the 2016 referendum, Brexiters such as Lord Daniel Hannan, an adviser to the Board of Trade, worried that having close trade ties with EU held back the UK economy. Britain was “shackled to a corpse”, he said.
But since the eve of the coronavirus pandemic, the UK’s economy has underperformed compared with every other G7 counterpart and it is the only one not to have recovered to its size in late 2019.
The OECD expects the UK’s performance over the next two years to be worse than any other advanced economy bar Russia.
Though these comparisons provide many headlines, academic economists worry that such summary statistics might be polluted by specific UK-related Covid-19 weakness or energy shock effects.
To identify specific Brexit economic impacts, they use various methods to build a so-called counterfactual — a simulated history of the UK if it had stayed in the EU — and then compare it with the reality of Britain’s economy after the Brexit referendum.
In two areas, there is now a clear consensus allowing them to say with certainty that the Brexit hit to UK prosperity was, as Swati Dhingra, an external member of the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee, recently remarked, “undeniable”.
First, sterling depreciated more than 10 per cent after the Brexit vote in 2016 and has remained at this level ever since. This drop raised import prices, business costs and inflation, but failed to boost wages, exports or the competitiveness of the UK economy. The Resolution Foundation estimated that the depreciation raised import prices and overall inflation. It calculated that as a result real wages fell 2.9 per cent, costing households £870 every year on average.
The second clear effect has been on business investment, which has flatlined in real terms since after 2016 before falling during the pandemic.
Simon French, chief economist at Panmure Gordon, said that Brexit resulted in a rise in the cost of capital for UK companies as investors worried about diminished prospects of doing business in Britain. While he said other countries also saw weak business investment during the pandemic, the effect was much worse in the UK and looking at EU and US trends “suggests a material undershoot [of investment] of around £60bn a year”.
Most of the latest academic efforts have tried to quantify the trade impact of Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal, the Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which came into force at the start of 2021.
This work has been frustrated by statistical agencies in both the UK and EU changing the collection of import and export data and by disagreements on how best to identify a Brexit effect. But the results of studies now appearing suggest very large drops in trade between the UK and the EU, a decline in the variety of goods traded, a loss of trading relationships between companies and similar patterns in services.
“There is strong evidence the TCA has reduced the UK’s trade with the EU around 15 per cent so far,” said Thomas Sampson, associate professor at the London School of Economics. But he noted that the UK’s trade with the rest of the world had also decreased by similar amounts, leading him to be “not 100 per cent convinced we’ve seen a [Brexit] effect on exports so far”.
Other academics are less worried about the split between trade with the EU and the rest of the world, saying that there has been a definitive UK-specific drop in trade performance coinciding with Brexit.
Martina Lawless, a research professor in Ireland’s Economic and Social Research Institute, said Brexit had been “substantially negative” for the UK with her estimates showing declines in EU imports and exports of “close to 20 per cent”.
Almost every country except the UK saw a trade boom in 2021, she noted. “If something hadn’t happened in January 2021, UK trade should also have grown.”*
The most sophisticated statistical modelling has been taking place at Aston Business School, where professor of economics Jun Du has found that imports to the UK from the EU have largely recovered. However, she estimates that exports to the bloc are now 26 per cent lower than they would have been without the new barriers to trade.
The effect of this can be seen most clearly in goods trade, such as food exports, where there are technical barriers and more stringent border checks. There has also been a large drop in the number of goods traded, with varieties dropping to 42,000 from 70,000 before the new rules came into effect.
According to Du, smaller companies have been hardest hit because the barriers are a more significant cost relative to the value of trade, which bodes ill for the future. “[Small companies are] not just unproductive firms, but also new firms — that’s why we are worried about future growth — when you lose that, your pipeline breaks,” she said.
“There is little dispute that trade has been damaged [by Brexit] big time,” she added.
Similar evidence is emerging in the services trade, economists said. Dhingra told MPs this month she could be even more certain there was a “stagnation” in exports because the trade data for the sector had not been distorted by changes in collection methodology in the way it had for goods trade.
So far, ministers have rejected the economic evidence. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, said last week that he did not accept the OBR’s estimate that Brexit had caused a 4 per cent hit to the UK economy.
“There are big opportunities for us to become much more wealthy than we would otherwise have been,” he added, citing regulatory freedoms and trade deals that could be struck with other countries.
The government has not quantified these potential gains, and where it has — such as for the Australia trade deal — they were estimated to be tiny, raising output by just 0.08 per cent.
Economists say this is scant compensation for the economic losses the country has suffered so far.
“We know now that Brexit has made UK households worse off by raising the cost of living and it has made life harder for UK firms [by increasing trade barriers], and this has made the UK poorer,” said Sampson.
[QUOTE=the other bob wilson;5423728]How do you know about what I've said a few years ago? You've only been posting on here for five months?QUOTE]
If it's any help this is from the unsolicited pm he sent me a while back.
I jumped ship off here a while back mate - it was being hijacked by certain people - who unless they were agreed with went all in - and it became a joke.
So for a laugh I jumped ship to the 'other place' - that was alright for a while - unless you question the leader or said anything about Sam - and then you'd get banned (like i did)
Probably another incarnation that forgot his previous user name.
It's a shame that a few of our newest posters on here can't quite remember their old log ins. Browsers, Google accounts and apple accounts are normally very reliable for saving them.
I guess they're either unlucky or just enjoy going through the sign up process on here.
Whilst for clarity none of these messages has anything to do with me 👍 I thought
the private messaging communication system is for PRIVATE messaging 🤣 have a robust spat, that's the game but playing Hilda the curtain twitcher, c,Mon maaaaan, can you remember when the PM system went tits up on here a few years ago?, I was getting the PM inbox from a poster who was obviously playing away 🤣
I've no idea what you're talking about.
I think it’s obvious what he’s trying to say ……
What does he mean about a poster obviously playing away?
No idea about that though…. I thought this board was about sport and politics not infidelity
Cyril is not a normal person, he's a vindictive asshat with zero original thoughts of his own. I bet he's a right laugh down the pub after a few drinks though.
He’s one poster I’d like to buy a drink for
Gotta laugh at gluey thinking Cyril is abnormal.
irony overload methinks,
all i see is someone who hands you your various arses on a plate more or less daily
He deserves a medal for dogged determination,
So true.
All the oldies stick together clearly
There's a handful of posters who live rent free in his head. He's tried all sorts to level the playing field, including alts to boost engagement, and still no luck.
Now that's dogged determination
Oi! That’s my lineThere's a handful of posters who live rent free in his head. He's tried all sorts to level the playing field, including alts to boost engagement, and still no luck.
Now that's dogged determination
Rent free My Lord …l
Yes, who can forget all those various arses he served up on a plate after 6 years of Russia collusion hoaxes and the Hunter laptop debacle
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