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What motivates Progozhin?
Money. Power. What doesn’t motivate him? Ukraine. That is Putin’s pet project. Progozhin was a businessman to get wealthy. He ran Wagner to get wealthy. All he wants is a quiet end to his career and wealth. Get control of Russia and he makes himself super rich. He doesn’t care about Ukraine.
What will be his approach?
He is shrewd enough to know the Russians are bogged down, out of money, demoralized in Ukraine. He is a tactical winner and knows this war is a dead duck. The view that he only has 25,000 troops and will fail is a weak analysis and doesn’t factor in “sleepers” and information outside of the obvious data. With his choice of city he not only has access to Moscow, but corners off supply lines to Ukraine. So he says to Rusky troops in Ukraine “You are losing. Supplies will run out. You will die. Come with me and we will win v Putin. I always win. Join me and I will reward you”. A simple sales pitch by a successful general. Russian troops will see their folly, or smell the bait, and join him.
Who will back him?
He has political contacts. Ex-KGB contacts. Probably a few oligarchs on his side. He would not risk his entire career unless his spies and moles have given him tacit support, 50/50 odds or a promise to set aside. No successful generals make a move with a small army without knowing you have support. If you want evidence see how he has taken Rostov with ease. Russian troops and generals will turn and support him too. This isn’t 10,000-25,000 troops. There wil be “sleepers” already sounded out to support him.
How can get people onside? What is in it for them?
Politics is always about motives and incentives, where power is concerned. Appeal to people’s personal motives. This is easy. Oligarchs want peaceful business continuity and no war. Russian people want peace. Troops want a successful war or none at all, and recognition. Same for Wagner. EU / NATO want Ukraine. Ukranians want peace. All he has to do is convince Oligarchs they can continue to be rich (and give some), promise Russians peace, promise troops they will be well paid, promise generals their continued support, and leave Ukraine alone. Everyone will be onside apart from an isolated Putin. Russians value power and laugh at weakness. All these people will get what they want and back him. He will get more wealth than he could have imagined by controlling Russia and does not need Ukraine as that was Putin’s project. He will be happy.
What for Ukraine?
The turn of support for him by Russian troops means the NATO, with some lag time, and take ground. Air attacks may continue until Progozhin gets control of military. Then peace and rebuilding. Join EU. Becomes wealthy with foreign investment.
What for economics / markets?
Inflation drops (energy markets stabilise, food and grain exports revert to normal.. Interest rates drop. Financial markets may boom again. Money will be made by those reconstructing the Ukraine, winning contracts from post-war funding.
Do I want him to win?
Progozhin will win. No military general would take this approach unless he is fairly sure, or it would be suicide. I also want him to win. He is a thug and a murderer, but the war stops, Ukraine rebuilds and a China ally is sidelined then this is realpolitik - not a good choice but the least worst. So I want him
to win.
How might he fail?
If Putin is super clever he would have traps set in place. He isn’t a mug either. If he has double agents that lead Progozhin to believe that he has support prior to invading Moscow, only for Progozhin to commit all his resources and attack Moscow, only to find the support was false, that would end Progozhin‘s attempts and he would be rounded up and killed.
Russian politics is riddled with power games and backstabbing. Has Putin put these traps in place? Or has he misread the threat of Progozhin? I think everything rests on that calculation.
Stopped reading when you said he doesn't care about Ukraine. That's the entire reason he's fallen out with Putin. He's almost messianic in his determination to murder and pillage Ukraine and it's citizens.
What will happen to him?
Whatever happens to him will involve a lot of death and destruction I'd imagine.
As long as he gives it his all, he will be backed by Erol and the City faithful. We love a trier!
I think you have that wrong. Think about it.
He is a mercenary. Of course he cares about Ukraine is he is paid for it. But that is it. Mercenaries don’t care about the politics. They fight for money and always have.
But if he calculates that he is not getting the resources from Putin, or that the EU / NATO are committing more resources (therefore increasing his risk of loss and face), then he would be less interested. If he also calulcates that Putin is weak and he can be 100 times richer being master of Russia, then a mercenary is going to be tempted.
Because the attraction of monster sized money and power compared to fighting in Ukraine is a no brainer. Perhaps you should have read on and kept an open mind.
He is also very rich already and chooses to be on the frontline so money is not his first priority. And he is unlikely to win against Putin. The odds of him seeing next Christmas are slim.Originally Posted by chrisp_1927
The key to Russian power is getting the Russian elite are onside. Putin generals, outspoken oligarchs and increasing Russian populace are not happy.
Putin’s power is fading. It is worth remembering that Mr Wagner cannot be a rich mercenary for ever, and cannot be on the frontline for ever. He is ageing. He must look what is next in his career.
Russians will move behind who appears to be strong. That is Russian culture. If they perceive Putin to be slowly losing, and the other fella to be increasing in strength, then the unhappy will swing behind the winner.
Completely disagree. He's made statement after statement urging a harder war and the taking of more territory in Ukraine. That's not just someone who's sitting back collecting his money for supply fighters , that's someone who wants Russia to take over Ukraine.
Or how about the evidence from today. Where him and his fighters took over a Russian airfield and told the commanders ' we've taken over to stop you bombing us, but we are not going to stop you bombing ukrainians'.
That is called clever politics. I always find it a better prediction to read between the lines. Taking statements at face value is rarely a clever thing. Double speak and telling people what they want to hear is often in play.
You may well prove to be correct of course and time will tell. But I think my prediction will come true.
But can he step up at Volgograd away on a cold Tuesday night?
Something I also think is relevant is today’s COBRA meeting. I believe they will try and make contact with Mr Wagner as they want to pull down Putin.
They financed and backed Ukraine military to fight Putin. If secret intelligence and diplomatic contacts inside Russia prove that Progozhin is in a strong position, I think they may well finance his army.
Think that is absurd? Two reasons it would be real:
1. We financed Bin Laden against Russia in Afghanistan. “My enemy’s enemy is my friend” is a true aphorism in war
2. Military strategy. Financing Wagner to attack Russian troops will weaken both sides, but weakens Russia troops in total (Wagner + Putin’s troops), which increase ls NATO / Ukraine success v Russia. “Divide and conquer” is another aphorism in war. It is clever strategy.
Morally it would sound wrong to finance Wagner. But this is a military strategy, not an ethical discussion. If I were the US / EU / EU / NATO I would not hesistate to fund Wagner to launch a coup inside Russia.
We need players all over the pitch. Stoke away on a Tuesday night used to be a problem.
Huddersfield home 3pm on a Saturday is a tough fixture at the moment.
this Wagner chap looks captain material .sign him up !
II still reckon he murdered Natalie Wood.
Ironically I’ve been watching Colditz.
He does have a Ruthless streak.
Last episode he was Walken through Germany.
Hmmmm, Prigozhin is a Neo Nazi, a loony of the highest order, created and encouraged by Putin. He's certainly capable of causing problems (he has already) but he will get steamrolled into oblivion. I can't quite understand why people are excited about this situation. It's bad news for everyone.
You forgot Economics and Money Supply
When you say bad news for everyone, what if you are Ukranian?
Yup, this is about right. From where i'm sitting there's some ****ing loony tune descending upon Moscow because he is upset with the Gangster (Who isn't a loony) who sits in power. An absolute death mission. We can all speculate about the Wagner Battalion, it's motives, it's secret allies within etc. Means absolute shit. This is going to make things even worse for the people of the world, Russia and the Ukraine.
Well, from my limited understanding of it all, Prigozhin doesn't have the hearts of the Ukranians in his thoughts, unless you know different. He's been killing them for the past 6 months or so. His problem seems to be with Russian Military decision makers in not giving him enough support to do that killing. Correct me if i'm wrong
I don't think he gives a shit about Ukrainians. However they are in the early days of an offensive. 30k Wagnerians going off to the Motherland, taking over the city that is a key command centre, tying up military commanders in an internal fight is bad enough without the impact on the morale of an ever increasing conscript army fighting a war on a foreign land they may not believe in.Well, from my limited understanding of it all, Prigozhin doesn't have the hearts of the Ukranians in his thoughts, unless you know different. He's been killing them for the past 6 months or so. His problem seems to be with Russian Military decision makers in not giving him enough support to do that killing. Correct me if i'm wrong
I would have thought that those Ukrainians that support its government and its armed forces will be happy as pigs in shit today!
I don't think this has a happy ending
it might all be a way for Putin to pull out of Ukraine while saving some face by blaming some senior MOD people.
it might also hasten the end of this conflict without a shot being fired within Russia if this coup or whatever it is fizzles out but it shows a diminished capability in Ukraine
there are plenty of scenarios where this could be good news, you don't know any better than any of us here.
I don't think anyone really expects this guy to roll into Moscow unopposed and take over the Kremlin then suddenly return into a wise and benevolent ruler
Of course i don't know any better than anyone else, and i have never professed to know better. Your scenarios may play out, who knows? But, on the face of it, with the evidence at hand, this bloke is absolutely 'Radio Rental' a suspected Neo Nazi who has already killed thousands of Ukrainians. That's pretty much factual. So, if i was going to make a prediction..
that would be like taking your boss and his family hostage because you didn't get the pay rise you wanted.Well, from my limited understanding of it all, Prigozhin doesn't have the hearts of the Ukranians in his thoughts, unless you know different. He's been killing them for the past 6 months or so. His problem seems to be with Russian Military decision makers in not giving him enough support to do that killing. Correct me if i'm wrong
sounds a bit far fetched to me
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