Originally Posted by
Keyser Soze
What motivates Progozhin?
Money. Power. What doesn’t motivate him? Ukraine. That is Putin’s pet project. Progozhin was a businessman to get wealthy. He ran Wagner to get wealthy. All he wants is a quiet end to his career and wealth. Get control of Russia and he makes himself super rich. He doesn’t care about Ukraine.
What will be his approach?
He is shrewd enough to know the Russians are bogged down, out of money, demoralized in Ukraine. He is a tactical winner and knows this war is a dead duck. The view that he only has 25,000 troops and will fail is a weak analysis and doesn’t factor in “sleepers” and information outside of the obvious data. With his choice of city he not only has access to Moscow, but corners off supply lines to Ukraine. So he says to Rusky troops in Ukraine “You are losing. Supplies will run out. You will die. Come with me and we will win v Putin. I always win. Join me and I will reward you”. A simple sales pitch by a successful general. Russian troops will see their folly, or smell the bait, and join him.
Who will back him?
He has political contacts. Ex-KGB contacts. Probably a few oligarchs on his side. He would not risk his entire career unless his spies and moles have given him tacit support, 50/50 odds or a promise to set aside. No successful generals make a move with a small army without knowing you have support. If you want evidence see how he has taken Rostov with ease. Russian troops and generals will turn and support him too. This isn’t 10,000-25,000 troops. There wil be “sleepers” already sounded out to support him.
How can get people onside? What is in it for them?
Politics is always about motives and incentives, where power is concerned. Appeal to people’s personal motives. This is easy. Oligarchs want peaceful business continuity and no war. Russian people want peace. Troops want a successful war or none at all, and recognition. Same for Wagner. EU / NATO want Ukraine. Ukranians want peace. All he has to do is convince Oligarchs they can continue to be rich (and give some), promise Russians peace, promise troops they will be well paid, promise generals their continued support, and leave Ukraine alone. Everyone will be onside apart from an isolated Putin. Russians value power and laugh at weakness. All these people will get what they want and back him. He will get more wealth than he could have imagined by controlling Russia and does not need Ukraine as that was Putin’s project. He will be happy.
What for Ukraine?
The turn of support for him by Russian troops means the NATO, with some lag time, and take ground. Air attacks may continue until Progozhin gets control of military. Then peace and rebuilding. Join EU. Becomes wealthy with foreign investment.
What for economics / markets?
Inflation drops (energy markets stabilise, food and grain exports revert to normal.. Interest rates drop. Financial markets may boom again. Money will be made by those reconstructing the Ukraine, winning contracts from post-war funding.
Do I want him to win?
Progozhin will win. No military general would take this approach unless he is fairly sure, or it would be suicide. I also want him to win. He is a thug and a murderer, but the war stops, Ukraine rebuilds and a China ally is sidelined then this is realpolitik - not a good choice but the least worst. So I want him
to win.
How might he fail?
If Putin is super clever he would have traps set in place. He isn’t a mug either. If he has double agents that lead Progozhin to believe that he has support prior to invading Moscow, only for Progozhin to commit all his resources and attack Moscow, only to find the support was false, that would end Progozhin‘s attempts and he would be rounded up and killed.
Russian politics is riddled with power games and backstabbing. Has Putin put these traps in place? Or has he misread the threat of Progozhin? I think everything rests on that calculation.
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None of us know the long term affects though, and i suppose that the people of Ukraine will take any crumb of comfort or destabilisation towards Putin. It just seems to me, with a limited knowledge, that this new headcase isn't in it for peace, love and democracy. It's a case of Bullies turning on Bullies, at some point there will still be a bully, but with more power than before.
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