Reply With QuoteYou're overthinking this.
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Sitting here sipping my strong coffee in a beautiful Swiss town, flicking through the news, something occurred to me. That much of this week’s news and chatter has been mainly focused on the scandal surrounding Huw Edwards and, much closer to home, the potential signing of club and Welsh great Aaron Ramsey. Yet creeping by an increasing amount across football newswires has been the much vaunted potential transfer of Fabinho and Jordan Henderson to the Arab League. As I finished one flat white, and ordered another, it got me musing.
UK sports on a decline? DAZN, Japanese & French Rugby, Indian Cricket
Football isn’t the first to be hooked by Arab money and the Oil Sheiks. Boxing really succeeded in pulling the big names in. Instead of fights in the UK, more fights are heading to the Gulf States. Tax-free. Big money. Big TV rights. Much more cash in your pocket, Mr Boxer and Mr Promoter. What’s not to love? Indian cricket succeeded in pulling highly paid Indian players back to their cricket league. With the England and Wales rugby unions have being financially hammered, players from both nations are heading to Japan and France for the big wedge. First it looked like “Help The Aged”. Now it is players in their prime, or even a shade before.
So is the Arab League a real threat to British football? I think it is be, and it is not receiving sufficient coverage. Perhaps ostriches with heads in the sand, or a slow moving train crash. Does it take a hard hit before the threat is realized? Has the “Sky / BT Premiership Global game success” mantra ran for so long, that we believe it cannot end? Along with Brexit, ailing UK stock market, and UK sports being plucked there seems to be a general trend appearing, in a slow-moving and insidious way. Perhaps the false dawns of Japan and the MLS has given us a false sense of confidence that this is temporary?
Star Attractions: The Japan & MLS League redux? Or A Real Disruptor?
Some may say this has happened before and the threat was not real. The Japan league managed to snare its fair share of stars in the 1980s and 1990s. Zico of Brazil. Diego Forlan of Uruguay. Hristo Stoichkov of Bulgaria. Michael Laudrup of Denmark. Dunga of Brazil. Salvatore Schillachi of Italy. Lukas Podolski of Germany. Hulk of Brazil. Dragan Stoijkovic of Bulgaria. Leonardo and Jorginho of Brazil. Gary Lineker of England. Guido Buchwald and Pierre Littbarski of Germany. The list goes on. But these players were either already nearly-retired, or whose careers who had come to a halt, and they looked for a payday. The USA was something of a bigger joke, with Rooney, Gareth Barry, Gareth Bale and Frank Lampard were barely able to run, but they collected a hefty wallet for putting their face to the league. Perhaps zimmer frames were thrown in as a bonus. A few Japanese and American companies or rich backers here or there, but patchwork more than systemic. And not a real threat.
Fast forward to 2022-23 and the signings of Ronaldo, Messi, Firmino and Benzema seems to be repeating the pattern. Advertising rights play a part of course. But not so fast. The land of the camel seems to be grabbing a few players earlier than their retirement age. No need for them to reach for their bus pass just yet. Henderson at 33 is still a regular international. Fabinho at 29 is still in his prime, although arguably off form. Ruben Neves is 27. The brilliant Sergei Milinkovic-Savic is 28. Koulibaly at 32 is still in his prime. Gundogan is ageing but still brilliant. See the list here:
https://www.transfermarkt.com/saudi-...wettbewerb/SA1
But the assault doesn’t end there. Look at who else is linked. Jordi Alba. Adama Traore. Wilfried Zaha. N’Golo Kante. Whilst not kids, they are still highly performing players. These are not 35-45, but 30 and lowering.
https://khelnow.com/football/2023-06...udi-pro-league
Not only are star players the star attractions to the league, but there is a level of attractiveness not available in either Japan or America that makes this threat real. Tax-free income. Multiple wives allowed by law! Bling on a different level. Misdemeanours protected by the media (rather than exposed) I am sure. And talks of 600k-800k for players who can only earn 100k-200k in Europe. This is an absolute game changer in terms of financial attractiveness and lifestyle. Arab money owns countries and governments, and in some cases entire Wealth Funds. Unlike the US and Japan backers, The Arab League financial backers are in a different league so to speak, and so is the financial offer. This isn’t temporary, and will only get worse for us.
A Moral Conundrum
These days European footballers are now expected to get involved in an increasing amount of public charity and support of moral issues. Think LGBT, visiting of hospitals, supporting of local causes such as food banks, and global causes such as racism such as Black Lives Matter. And quite right, too. It’s about public image and supporting those who support you.
But the Gulf States are not exactly jealous guardians of Environmental, Social and Governance values (ESG). Death money & kidnapping is de rigeur. Modern slavery in the form of staff and slaves from Phillipines, Africa and the Indian sub-continent is a fact of life. Their subhuman and treatment shrugged off as trivial. Sportswashing is a known, and corruption is rife. Say the wrong thing and, oops, you disappear. Sorry about that, Mr Westerner. The similarities between Russian and Arab values appear well synchronised.
Therein lies the clash. The dilemma I see as a result of them moving to the Arab League was already exhibited. The World Cup was a trial balloon, with Gary Neville a perfect example of a moralistic footballer caught out by a simple conundrum. They will not be able to support these causes whilst taking the big money. It will be outlawed. So now they will need to choose. Take the money, shut up, and no longer be seen as good people (let alone role models). Or, they will take the money, speak out, and perhaps face a punishment not experienced in the UK nor on the Continent. But they will not be able to have their cake and eat it.
What effect will this have on the Championship and British international teams?
England and Wales have been the recent beneficiaries of improved coaching education resulting in a decade of improved young players. Scotland has been improving in its technical quality in the league. But what happens if these players move to the Gulf States? Steven Gerrard may be a low grade coach at the moment, but if he has been tempted to move to The Gulf, how long will it be until the likes of Rafael Benitez, Jurgen Klopp, Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola go there? It is only in the last 10-15 years they were attracted to the UK from Europe. If they can earn £15m instead of £5m, wouldn’t they go too? Elite manager versus elite manager. Elite player vs elite player. As they say in coaching, “Steel on Steel”. That is what made the Premiership so competitive and no doubt raised the standards of British football. Without all the top quality here in the UK, surely it is not a reach to see that the standard must fall. And so must our national football teams, with all that quality thinned out and dispersed.
What of the Championship? Well if the elite leave the top end to go to the Arab league, then more from grassroots will surely move up the leagues? Surely this is just simple logic and a reversal of European footballers appearing in The Championship as quality was pushed down from the Premiership, no? Better for grassroots footballers, but lower in quality. That is my guess.
Second round effects - Cycles & The End of An Era: A New Bust?
In the 1990s it was Italian football wealth that reigned supreme. With the advent of the Premiership the Sky money paid footballers several multiples more than before, and we saw Ruud Gullit, Frank Le Bouef, Dennis Bergkamp, Emmanuel Petit, Marc Overmars and more European and South American footballers started coming to the UK. Today the Premier League is a Global All Stars league of young and prime time Brazilians, Argentinians, Spanish, Dutch, Germans and African players. Only Real Madrid sit above the Premier League to teams. As with politics, finance markets, empires, the world of business - so it is with sport. Cycles come and go. Dominance gives way to struggle. Rise and fall.
The rich success of Premiership football was a perfect confluence of Murdoch’s Sky and BT Sports money, concentration of quality of players and managers, and global advertising rights. Logic dictates then, that the slow disappearance of elite players and managers much predicate its value, and fall. I suspect that the much richer Arabs, far richer than UK, American, European or Japanese owners, will not be happy with just owning UK clubs. The Arab oil is running out. Green energy is a threat. They need to develop new industries, so that their wealth diversified across a portfolio, not just oil. Hotels and Tourism has been building for 20 years. Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) is new one in the last decade. Engineering & Construction has also been growing for 20 years. Now it is sport. They are going in, full balls deep. They want to take over sports, host it in the Gulf states, and have the money to buy the players, stadiums and advertising will at a stroke of pen.
When the UK TV money created a bust at the end of the 1990s / early Noughties, I think another bust is coming. Premiership and Championship clubs, sodden with debt, will now lose the top talent that makes the commercial TV deals less valuable. If so, Premiership TV deals will be worth less when re-negotiated then club revenues will surely fall. And with a fall in revenue from the TV rights to help pay the debt, clubs will end up in further trouble. It won’t happen immediately, but I believe this story will grow and be the dominant theme of the next decade in British football.
You're overthinking this.
Originally Posted by Carl Dale's Mole
Seems to be his MO
The reinvention of Organ Morgan
Currently the premier league is in a massively dominant position - probably the strongest it has ever been. Tiny clubs like Bournemouth are competing with giants like AC Milan for signings. The top clubs around Europe are in a complete mess financially trying to keep up.
There is a threat from the house of Saud's new interest in football, but it isn't that the Saudi league will replace the premier league as the pinnacle of the sport anytime soon. Even with the influx of stars the Saudi league is still shit - who is going to watch it? - a few Ronaldo fanboys. The threat comes from what the Saudis will try next.
Saudi money was behind the recent attempt to form a European superleague, and you can be sure that that will return with a vengeance, and next time there will be a couple of Saudi teams involved as well. The other European powers will be happy to disrupt the status quo as they are struggling to keep up.
I also don't think Saudi's sudden interest in sport is intended to bring in money for when the oil revenues reduce, not directly anyway - I think it is more for "soft power".
Oh feck off
1700 words. Can you top that tomorrow?
Either he drinks his coffee very slowly or types at an incredible speed. Fair play, an epic piece there! In summary: Saudi money influences the future of football.
Can somebody precis it, I just don't have the time
Is there an audio version available?
I just did! See above.Can somebody precis it, I just don't have the time
Switzerland must be even more boring than people say it is.
Imagine typing that lot out with 1 thumb on your phone.
Noele Gordon was good wasn't she
Only if every team has top quality players throughout the squad. A couple of big names scattered amongst a team of journeymen is boring as feck. It could work in the future though, when climate lockdowns are in place and all sport is consumed via TV.
If they raised their standards and gave some rights to at least women!!!
They could be the new Barry Island
Yeah dare you to take to the knee over their ,hold your boyfriends hand , kiss in public, allow women to walk alongside you , have a beer , ffs where are players dignity
'As I sip my coffee in a beautiful Swiss town, flicking through the papers'...
After reading that, I was OUT!
Who are you, James Richardson?
I thought maybe he was trying out the AI “ChatGPT” application !!!
Indeed. It does make you think if they have thought about it
The hits are coming fast - now the biggest behemoth of them all, Oil City, have lost Mahrez by the looks of it. Looks alike anyone is fair game now. European clubs will be filling their underwear I would think.
https://uk.yahoo.com/sports/news/gua...164455554.html
Saudi Arabia Veterans League
Apart from Neves everyone else signed from Europe is the wrong side of 30.
No need for the Premier League to start panicking just yet.
Could be worse. Could have Sludge's dismal outlook on life.
What are Canvey Island doing in the Arab League 🤔
Indeed. I don’t think the epitaph on his tombstone would be a summary of his life, some musing on his family, nor a piece of philosophy.
Just a good old “Feck off you tory kents” on the very remote off chance that a Conservative voter in Neath happened to walk past his grave 😂
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