Championship 2023/24 - the Racing Post's verdict

[The Lone Gunman]

The Big Kick-Off, the Racing Post's annual 80-page football betting guide, was published on Wednesday and it's fair to say their pundits don't rate City's chances for the coming campaign.

The Post has predicted the Bluebirds will get relegated and finish above only Huddersfield and QPR. Their brief verdict on City reads as follows:

"Cardiff would have been relegated last season if Reading had not been hit by a six-point deduction and they will need to improve significantly over the next ten months. The Bluebirds have switched managers, with Erol Bulut replacing Sabri Lamouchi, but despite signing Aaron Ramsey, their player recruitment has been unconvincing."

The Post's predictions for the Championship top ten are as follows:

1 - Leicester City
2 - Middlesbrough
3 - Southampton
4 - Norwich City
5 - Swansea City
6 - Ipswich Town
7 - Leeds United
8 - Sunderland
9 - West Bromwich Albion
10 - Watford

Meanwhile, they think the bottom six will look like this:

19 - Birmingham City
20 - Plymouth Argyle
21 - Rotherham United
22 - Cardiff City
23 - Huddersfield Town
24 - Queens Park Rangers

As I mentioned in a previous betting thread, I've been surprised by how negatively the bookmakers and many pundits seem to be viewing City's chances this season. While fair and reasonable cases can certainly be made against all of the players Bulut has brought in so far this summer, I've felt pretty positive about most of them and the other fans I've spoken to also seem to be cautiously optimistic. While nobody I've talked to is expecting a promotion push of any kind, most of us seem to believe a comfortable mid-table finish should be well within reach. However, those looking at the situation from further afield don't appear to agree.

[Taunton Blue Genie]

The Big Kick-Off, the Racing Post's annual 80-page football betting guide, was published on Wednesday and it's fair to say their pundits don't rate City's chances for the coming campaign.

The Post has predicted the Bluebirds will get relegated and finish above only Huddersfield and QPR. Their brief verdict on City reads as follows:

"Cardiff would have been relegated last season if Reading had not been hit by a six-point deduction and they will need to improve significantly over the next ten months. The Bluebirds have switched managers, with Erol Bulut replacing Sabri Lamouchi, but despite signing Aaron Ramsey, their player recruitment has been unconvincing."

The Post's predictions for the Championship top ten are as follows:

1 - Leicester City
2 - Middlesbrough
3 - Southampton
4 - Norwich City
5 - Swansea City
6 - Ipswich Town
7 - Leeds United
8 - Sunderland
9 - West Bromwich Albion
10 - Watford

Meanwhile, they think the bottom six will look like this:

19 - Birmingham City
20 - Plymouth Argyle
21 - Rotherham United
22 - Cardiff City
23 - Huddersfield Town
24 - Queens Park Rangers

As I mentioned in a previous betting thread, I've been surprised by how negatively the bookmakers and many pundits seem to be viewing City's chances this season. While fair and reasonable cases can certainly be made against all of the players Bulut has brought in so far this summer, I've felt pretty positive about most of them and the other fans I've spoken to also seem to be cautiously optimistic. While nobody I've talked to is expecting a promotion push of any kind, most of us seem to believe a comfortable mid-table finish should be well within reach. However, those looking at the situation from further afield don't appear to agree.

I can't see how we will be a better team than last seaon without Kipré, Philogene and Kaba.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

I can't see how we will be a better team than last seaon without Kipré, Philogene and Kaba.

Same here, particularly Kipre.

I generally don't read much into pre-season friendlies but I'm still concerned about where goals are going to come from, and defensively I fear we're worse than we have been since we won promotion to this division.

[City123]

I'd like to know the reasoning behind Rotherham finishing above us having lost Ogbene. Also Swansea in 5th strikes me as odd, they're going from Martin's extreme possession based spproach to someone more pragmatic in Duff, even if you think he'll do well I imagine there'll be some teething problems.

Boro in 2nd also seems high with doubts over Akpom's fitness and them having lost a key player in Giles. I can't see Akpom hitting the same highs this season.

I can see why bookies have us low down, our midfield remains an issue, we certainly need another centre half and our keepers aren't great. We've definitely strengthened going forward (I'd argue Grant & Ramsey are upgrades on Philogene whilst Bowler's around a similar level), but until we've plugged the gaps behind them it'll be a struggle. I think a lot of optimism comes from a feeling that we will plug those gaps though, the window so far has been good and I think there's maybe an expectation we'll bring in more good players.

It's nice finally having a proper manager too.

[The Lone Gunman]

It's nice finally having a proper manager too.

I agree with much of what you say, but not this. In reality, Bulut could turn out to be absolutely anything.

[jon1959]

I can't see how we will be a better team than last seaon without Kipré, Philogene and Kaba.

Goutas may turn out to be a good Kipre replacement - but we need another CB (or two).

Philogene didn't get going until the second half of the season - Meite and Bowler replace him with something to spare.

Kaba didn't arrive until late January - we started the season with Watters and Harris as the front players (Robinson at the end of the window). We need a No 9. Ugbo is not convincing at all (yet) and the other options are 10s or wide forwards out of position.

Then we have Ramsey and Grant.

I am worried about the goalkeepers (but no change from last season), lack of depth in central defence and a gap at No 9 - but we have a stronger squad than the one that started last season. With 2-3 more to come in.

So.......


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[The Lone Gunman]

I'd like to know the reasoning behind Rotherham finishing above us having lost Ogbene. Also Swansea in 5th strikes me as odd, they're going from Martin's extreme possession based spproach to someone more pragmatic in Duff, even if you think he'll do well I imagine there'll be some teething problems.

The Post pundits are keen on both Duff and Yates. Indeed, one of their recommendations is an each way punt on Yates to be the division's top scorer at 40/1. Interestingly, their other top scorer tip is Rhys Healey each way at 80/1.

[City123]

I agree with much of what you say, but not this. In reality, Bulut could turn out to be absolutely anything.

Yes quite, but what I'm getting at is having someone with some kind of experience after Morison & Hudson inspires a bit more confidence and optimism. He could end up worse than both but he does seem to have a bit more authority and know how than them. Morison for me never inspired confidence, came across as an arrogant tw*t and it felt like a matter of time before he was on his way. The job was obviously too much for Hudson

[Carl Dale's Mole]

Last season was hilariously bad. Would take some doing with this team, to repeat that shit performance.

Bulut seems a decent bloke. I like how honest he is. Maybe too honest and I wouldn't be surprised if MD has told him recently that he doesn't have to answer all of the press' questions truthfully.

Let's see if he can hack it when his back's up against the wall. We all know how unforgiving this league and our fans can be. Will be anything but smooth sailing.

I think anywhere from 10th-16th with the lower end a lot more likely than the higher end.

For relegation to happen, Bulut will have to have transformed from an unknown quantity to the worst manager in the league.

Hopefully not.

[the other bob wilson]

I agree with much of what you say, but not this. In reality, Bulut could turn out to be absolutely anything.

Agreed, based on the sketchy, and limited, evidence of our pre season results and performances, I'd say there are some encouraging signs in the way we're trying to play, but we're still making sticking the ball in the net look almost impossible. Apart from our Chairman, no one involved with City had heard of our manager when news of his appointment first broke and we're still in the dark with him when it comes to competitive football.

[Hilts]

Weve a complete unknown manager appointed by lets face it a completely incompetent board.

A squad last season who were the 3rd worst in the division (maybe 4th we may have got another point if wed really needed it)

From that squad weve lost 3 of our better players and the guy who actually stuck the ball in the net.

We are under an embargo until January.

Its hardly suprising we are amongst everyones tips for the drop.

Hopefully Ramsey is going to make a huge difference. Bowler I think will be a class signing. Grant if he can reproduce his Huddersfield form also. Plus we have Robinson Hopefully fit.

I worry about the quality in midfield - Rall s , Wintle Ramsey is ok. How many games will we get out of Ramsey and Ralls. Hopefully Colwill can step up this season and claim that AM role. I dont think any of the others we have in CM are near good enough but maybe im being harsh on Adams as he hasnt shown what he can do.

Defence - we will soon find out if Goutas is good enough. Even if he is if him or MacGuiness are injured we have problems. There is no back up. Simpson is way below the standard we need.

O Dowda and Ng will be ok at fullbacks. We are going to need Collins to challenge though and come back to last seasons promising form.

Keepers - we need a better no.1.

Im sure we will still do business though this summer and in January.

Its going to be tough and im hopeful Ramsey leads us to a better season than lasts. I reckon 18th.

[Pedro de la Rosa]

Grant and Bowler are good signings. I’ve got no idea about Ugbo but given our recent success on loans, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. Meite is a good championship player if he can stay fit. We have definitely upgraded our wide options but are short of a centre forward. Ramsey is obviously great, we need to wrap him in cotton wool. Goutas looks good. We desperately need a new CF, CM and CB. If we sign 3 good players there, we will be fine. If any side signs a good spine, they’ll be fine! The full backs are fine and the keepers are just about OK. I don’t particularly rate Allsop or Alnwick but we need other areas more. I’d like to see us move a few of the poor midfielders we have on, too. If a good offer came in for anyone that isn’t Ralls or Wintle, I’d take it. I expect Ojo will go if we get a striker, maybe Etete too.

I’d snap your hands off for top half and I think we’ll finish midtable. The division is crap, we will make more signings and think we will be fine. Big question mark is Bulut. Could be a stroke of genius, madness or anything in between!

[2b2bdoo]

A GK,CB and a striker and we can have a very decent season. Another midfielder and we could have a real push for the top 6 in my opinion.

I think someone like Moore would really bring things together, we got plenty of players wide who can get goals and someone like Ramsey in the number 10, if it clicks can be a really problem for teams.

[Carl Dale's Mole]

BUMP-ing so we can be reminded how wrong the Racing Post was.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Same here, particularly Kipre.

I generally don't read much into pre-season friendlies but I'm still concerned about where goals are going to come from, and defensively I fear we're worse than we have been since we won promotion to this division.

70 goals conceded is our worst at this level since 1977/78.

[LA Bluebird]

Goal difference wise we'd have been 21st again

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Goal difference wise we'd have been 21st again

Wins apart, our stats from this season don't make for good reading.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Wins apart, our stats from this season don't make for good reading.

To be fair , winning games is a pretty important statistic