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Jimmy dying on a hill all for the love of Brexit. He sounds like the Black Knight outta Monty Python.Originally Posted by JamesWales
You're obfuscating Jimbo. Good to see your Brexit tinted nuance is working though.
Let's go through what I said again.
GDP lower than G7 countries.
UK experienced higher rates of inflation.
Shortage of workers.
I'll give you wage growth has been higher in the UK but that's due to a shortage of workers, its also led to higher inflation. Who'd have thought it uh?
It only took a moment Ducky! No dying on hills needed.
First bit isn't true.
Second bit isn't true
Third bit..well yeah..you limit supply of workers and UK workers benefit. What do you want? Lower wages?
Theres a tonne of data out there. Unemployment, stock market, wages, investment, GDP, inflation. It's naturally mixed but none of it points to much of an impact at all
And as has been pointed out before. We left the EU a few weeks before Covid hit our shores. So it's only now that clear patterns emerge and out GDP growth is above our peers.
Essentially absolutely nothing of what was predicted by some has happened. Just accept it and move on. It's been 7 years!
First bit
https://www.theguardian.com/business...tedly-in-march
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64450882
Second bit
https://news.sky.com/story/oecd-says...0from%205.4%25.
https://m.economictimes.com/news/int.../103789660.cms
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/why...em-2023-05-26/
Granted inflation has stabilised the last month.
I've moved on from Brexit ages ago. I'm pointing our what the UK has experienced since and still of the opinion it was economic hari kiri.
First bits are out of date. It was all revised up recently. The UK outstripping France and Germany.
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-...23-2023-09-29/
Germany itself is experiencing a recession.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonco...catch-a-break/
Inflation peaks at different points but basically everyone peaked at circa 10-11%. Before the peak our inflation was generally lower (a month or so behind) and so after we were higher for longer.
Inflation is a recurring problem, no doubt, but it is is everywhere and it may be linked to higher wages. As mentioned our wage growth v inflation ratio has been better than most.
Unemployment - lower here. Stock exchange - generally better here. Value of pound - generally worse here. The pattern goes on. It's mixed but nothing points to any kind of negative impact, let alone a disaster.
No one disputes tough times, but it's the same everywhere. It amazes me how many pro-europeans don't seem to follow what's happening there!
"The data ... does not change the big picture that the economy has lagged behind all other G7 countries aside from Germany and France since the pandemic. And that's before the full drag from higher interest rates has been felt," said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics.
Source:
Your Reuters link.
Cheers butt.
So it's the ones outside the EU doing better then?!
Far more than just the G7 to compare it to as well.
Unfortunately - and I know you want it to be there -but the evidence simply isn't there.
I'll play your game as I'm bored and you obviously can't read what I've actually posted.
Let's look at the GDP forecasts for countries in and outside the G7.
I'm now feeling really optimistic by these predictions.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...growth-europe/
No, lets look at real data instead. Because it has outperformed estimates at every turn.
We have looked at real data.
You keep on saying it’s either now not relevant or didn’t happen?
You even started to tell me what I was thinking.
It’s good to hear that the UK economy has outperformed estimates at every turn and the broad sun lit uplands are just around the corner though because evidence suggests it’s been a bit of a shiitshow.
You presented old data, that has since been amended - I gave the link to that. Then predictions. Maybe they'll be true, but they haven't been so far.We have looked at real data.
You keep on saying it’s either now not relevant or didn’t happen?
You even started to tell me what I was thinking.
It’s good to hear that the UK economy has outperformed estimates at every turn and the broad sun lit uplands are just around the corner though because evidence suggests it’s been a bit of a shiitshow.
The real data just doesn't show what you want it to.
And yes, Covid, Ukraine, all huge deals but the fact is some Europeans countries are in recession, ours isn't. It's not sunlit uplands but leaving the EU hasn't meant we perform worse than our peers..it just doesn't.
You can keep trying to find ways to show it (and I have no idea why you would be so keen to anyway, it's our country afterall) but the balance of data simply doesn't show it. Labour will never take us back in the EU, cos they know it's not worth it.
Jimbo, you bounded into this thread pontificating that some were using political rhetoric, no evidence mind and using your own forecasts as conclusive proof that all is well.
You've also tried to construct the narrative of other people's opinions who have produced evidence in support of the points made. There's also appears an ability to acknowledge points made actually did happen.
You've now determined any suggestive forecasts from other organisations as not really worth considering, although your opening gambit is a forecast and opinion.
Your points seem to be made up of uhhhmmm... political rhetoric and forecasts? My interpretation obviously.
Within your posts there is also a fair sprinkling of condescension and amazement that others can't interpret the statistics available similarly to your obvious greater knowledge on the subject.
It's a gift really. Hope you don't fall off that pedestal you've placed yourself? It'll be a long drop butt.
I suspect you're wasting your time, Jordi.
Chucking out a few indicators of current economic performance (which in themselves are skewed to fit the point being made) seems to me to betray an inability (or unwillingness) to see a much bigger longer-term picture.
What I've done is said that the balance of evidence points to there being no impact of Brexit on economic indicators.
And I've said that because it's the truth and what the data shows us.
You keep bouncing back and I'll keep saying it, cos it's true, even if you wish it wasn't!
Believe it or not, it is actually good news that dire predictions didn't come true.
And yes, I do find it amazing sometimes how some will try and dance around the evidence before them.
Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment, wage, growth, inflation, stock markets etc? This is hardly cherry picked stuff.
It's been seven years - a long term picture is emerging and it isn't what you said would happen.
Seven years?
Since we voted to leave the EU. I know right..feels more like 27!
Your last point, we can both agree on.
Ahhh right, when we voted, not when we actually left.
One thing I have learnt in the last 7 years is the utter futility of engaging on this with people of a certain mindset. I really should know better by now.
(By the way we didn't leave 7 years ago, and there has been so much 'fog' since we did leave that it is impossible to asses a long term definitive picture of impacts at this stage in the way that you claim. I know that you know this. It just doesn't fit your narrative though, does it? ).
However, as you've made a claim that relates specifically to me, please can you tell me which predictions I made that aren't/won't be coming to pass?.
You're wasting your time; it's Jimmy's Iwo Jima. He's not going to let trifling matters like facts get in the way of his obsession.
What mindset is that Peter? I've quoted real data. I'm not claiming Brexit has made the country instantly better. I'm saying it hasn't had much impact on the economy. And that's because it hasn't.
Of course there has been fog. First voting to leave would lead to disaster, then actually leaving, then we had to wait until after covid and now that's happened and yet growth outpaces Germany and France.
That's the reality. I'm not arguing it's perfect. I'm arguing there's no real impact.
You tell me - when will we start seeing the enormous economic impact? It's always "next year!"
I am literally the one quoting facts vs people quoting predictions.
Good lord above, Ducky!
Ok, so if we accept that we can now see long term impacts (and I don't, btw), then we should also be seeing the upsides. You tell me, James - when will we start seeing these upsides? It's always "next year"! Unless, of course, you see, the 'no impact' that you keep trumpeting through your metrics and 'facts', as an upside in itself?. It's a good strategy - set the bar so low that you are bound to be happy with the outcome! I think you'll struggle to convince many that the disruptions and divisiveness of recent years (and I can write you a long list of examples, some of which impact on me personally) have been worth it for your 'no real impact'.
....anyway... you didn't answer my question. I'd let it go if you hadn't directed it specifically at me. You said "a long term picture is emerging, and it isn't what you said would happen". I've always consistently said that the EU is a mixed bag of good and bad, but that the process of leaving would be a disruptive and divisive mess, with the prospect of plenty of pain for not much gain. Which bit of that has not proved correct, James?
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