Bulut - "Our xG went down when we lost Ramsey and O'Dowda"

[Eric the Half a Bee]

In his interview on Radio Wales, Erol Bulut stated that our xG had gone down since we lost Ramsey and O'Dowda. I thought I'd have a look, not out of any personal endorsement of xG, but by mentioning it, Bulut must read something into it.

Ramsey started our first 6 league games, O'Dowda our first 4. Our average xG over our first 4 games when both started was 1.55 per game. That rose to 1.63 per game following the games at Ipswich and at home to the Jacks. Our xG since losing both has dropped to 0.85. Bulut is right.

However, this is why I don't necessarily agree with the way he blames losing Ramsey and O'Dowda for our troubles in front of goal and why I'm not sure using xG is the best in this situation.

After we lost Ramsey, we won 5 out of 8 in the league. We hit our best run of form, and in some cases, performances, without Ramsey and O'Dowda. In 6 games with both we scored 10. In the next 8 without them we scored 13.

What might be interesting here is that, for the first 6 games our xG average was 1.63. For the next 8 that was nearly halved to 0.99 per game. During our first 6 games our total xG was 9.8 and we scored 10 goals, virtually the same. For the next 8 games our total xG was 7.9 yet we scored 13. We put 3 past Coventry and had an overall xG of 0.6 and put 4 past Huddersfield with an overall xG of 1.4.

For this spell we were clearly very good at scoring goals and creating chances, more so than when Ramsey and O'Dowda played. Defensively we conceded only 6 goals during this period but had an xGA of 10.4.

Here's a comparison, going back to averages again, of each set of fixtures.

First 6 games (with Ramsey and, for 4 games, O'Dowda):

xG average: 1.63
Scoring average: 1.66

xGA average: 1.3
Conceding average: 1.66

Next 8 games:

xG average: 0.99 (-0.64)
Scoring average: 1.63 (-0.03)

xGA average: 1.3 (same)
Conceding average: 0.75 (-0.91)

Since Bristol City:

xG average: 0.76 (-0.23)
Scoring average: 0.92 (-0.71)

xGA average: 1.48 (+0.18)
Conceding average: 1.42 (+0.67)

[EastbourneBlue]

In his interview on Radio Wales, Erol Bulut stated that our xG had gone down since we lost Ramsey and O'Dowda. I thought I'd have a look, not out of any personal endorsement of xG, but by mentioning it, Bulut must read something into it.

Ramsey started our first 6 league games, O'Dowda our first 4. Our average xG over our first 4 games when both started was 1.55 per game. That rose to 1.63 per game following the games at Ipswich and at home to the Jacks. Our xG since losing both has dropped to 0.85. Bulut is right.

However, this is why I don't necessarily agree with the way he blames losing Ramsey and O'Dowda for our troubles in front of goal and why I'm not sure using xG is the best in this situation.

After we lost Ramsey, we won 5 out of 8 in the league. We hit our best run of form, and in some cases, performances, without Ramsey and O'Dowda. In 6 games with both we scored 10. In the next 8 without them we scored 13.

What might be interesting here is that, for the first 6 games our xG average was 1.63. For the next 8 that was nearly halved to 0.99 per game. During our first 6 games our total xG was 9.8 and we scored 10 goals, virtually the same. For the next 8 games our total xG was 7.9 yet we scored 13. We put 3 past Coventry and had an overall xG of 0.6 and put 4 past Huddersfield with an overall xG of 1.4.

For this spell we were clearly very good at scoring goals and creating chances, more so than when Ramsey and O'Dowda played. Defensively we conceded only 6 goals during this period but had an xGA of 10.4.

Here's a comparison, going back to averages again, of each set of fixtures.

First 6 games (with Ramsey and, for 4 games, O'Dowda):

xG average: 1.63
Scoring average: 1.66

xGA average: 1.3
Conceding average: 1.66

Next 8 games:

xG average: 0.99 (-0.64)
Scoring average: 1.63 (-0.03)

xGA average: 1.3 (same)
Conceding average: 0.75 (-0.91)

Since Bristol City:

xG average: 0.76 (-0.23)
Scoring average: 0.92 (-0.71)

xGA average: 1.48 (+0.18)
Conceding average: 1.42 (+0.67)

Think most people could’ve predicted the Ramsey and O’dowda injuries

[Taunton Blue Genie]

Ramsay has played the equivalent minutes of 5 games of the 27 games this season. His appearance in the team is not the norm.
For my part, I have no idea whar xGA means but I do pity Bulut as he is saddled with a horde of inept players, particularly up front.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Ramsay has played the equivalent minutes of 5 games of the 27 games this season. His appearance in the team is not the norm.
For my part, I have no idea whar xGA means but I do pity Bulut as he is saddled with a horde of inept players, particularly up front.

Expected goals against.

[TheBirchgrovePub]

Whisper it quietly but he’s not that good a manager

[2b2bdoo]

Whisper it quietly but he’s not that good a manager

Better still better than anything we have had some time? You do know if he goes the replacement is Purse.

[TheBirchgrovePub]

Better still better than anything we have had some time? You do know if he goes the replacement is Purse.

Yep that’s why I wouldn’t call for him to go. But the rubbish served up in the last few months is up there with the worst of managers from recent years but he seemingly gets a free pass

Same mistakes week in week out, awful set up against Leicester and repeated again today. Strange substitutions in game. No interest in threatening teams better than us, it is poor to watch and that’s before we get started on why we have looked so unfit for the last 3 months!

[pipster]

Better still better than anything we have had some time? You do know if he goes the replacement is Purse.

Slade, TRollope, Ole, McCarthy. We had a bad day today. We should have kicked them off the park rather than pussy foot around at the back. McGuiness awful today and the rest of them not far behind

[2b2bdoo]

Yep that’s why I wouldn’t call for him to go. But the rubbish served up in the last few months is up there with the worst of managers from recent years but he seemingly gets a free pass

Same mistakes week in week out, awful set up against Leicester and repeated again today. Strange substitutions in game. No interest in threatening teams better than us, it is poor to watch and that’s before we get started on why we have looked so unfit for the last 3 months!

I don’t think he gets a free pass at all, plenty of people have questioned his starting line ups and subs from time to time, especially lately and a lot of it is fair.
Like I’ve said, I think working under a transfer embargo would have been mission impossible for any manager, I’m happy with the league position, better than expected. The football has been poor in recent months but I think the way to fix that is better players. I look at our squad and especially without ODowda and Ramsey, I see little quality. Two or three good quality players into the 11 could really boost the team though.

[bobh]

Whisper it quietly but he’s not that good a manager

I don't think he's that bad, but you can't polish a turd.
Stating the obvious, but new players needed