Originally Posted by
Keyser Soze
I think this is one of the best questions that has been asked on this forum in many years. Superb! I give my opinion with some degree of certainty, but not entirely. Let’s look at our own club before Sheff Weds, as it is closer to home and more salient.
First of all, I think “big club” is partly factual, and partly subjective. For example, many have argued, as do I, that Cardiff is a “sleeping giant”. Others say “It isn’t because we cannot get crowds of more than 25k when we are doing well”. TLG was a big exponent of this line of thinking, if memory serves me well.
Now to answer “Are we a big club?” requires a business analysis and historical analysis, which with many these days squeaking “TLDR” before someone’s second paragraph is beyond the scope of this forum, due to some possessing attention spans of a retarded nat.
But I think it would be fair to say that TLG’s civil servant approach of saying “Well the evidence of the last 20 years says not” fails to account for looking back further in history when Cardiff was regularly in the top two, and drawing 45k plus. He would rightfully point out that when we did get promoted we still couldn’t nudge Northwards of 27k. That said, all we could do is fill the capacity we had. It is possible that demand may have been 30-35k, but I cannot prove that. Evidence does not account for possibilities and alternative scenarios.
On that note, what if we had achieved Swansea’s sustained mid-table for 5 seasons? With good ticket prices for children, family-friendly policies, and a club that was well stewarded and engaged with fans, with a stadium capacity to handle demand? I would guess we could have 35-40k in there.
Is that a “big club”? Let’s try and define a list of categories:
1. Monster club (top 10-20%)
2. Big Club (top 30-40%)
3. Average Club (40-60% bracket)
4. Small club (bottom 30-40%)
5. A pygmy club (top 10-20%)
Now you have to define “big club”. So on fan base alone, given that “small clubs” have 2-3k of fans, and monster clubs like Spurs, Man Utd and Liverpool get 55-75 I would say this is the sort of thing you need to define a “big club”. The list is a starter, and by no means exhaustive, but a good opening gambit for debate, and my personal stab:
1. Commercial revenues in the top 30-40% of clubs in the English 4 professional divisions
2. Actual crowds in the top 30-40% of attendances (I would guess these days this is 30-45k perhaps, with top 20% being perhaps 45-65k?)
3. Potential crowds in the top 30-40% of attendances
4. A big catchment area, with little or mimimal competition, suggesting potential monopolistic possibilities for fan base
5.A strong brand
6. A history in recent or distant past that suggests possible large crowds
To me, league position is temporary and not a strong indicator as it is volatile. I would argue that Cardiff has elements of a big club (3,4 and elements of 6). If we agrre for simplicity on above definitions then maybe we are an “average club”, but with success in PL like Swansea we could be a “big club”, or have some elements of that.
Sheff Weds? With their crowds, and crowds when they were top flight, I think they could be called a big club. I think we would see similar crowds to them in the top flight if we both had similar success and priced our prices well for children.
But to answer your question well requires a good definition, rather than emotive answers or basing it on “crowds today”. Also, none of our opinions or views are testable by evidence until we sustained ourselves as a top 10 club. Only then can we be sure of what this club really is in the modern era.
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