Yes, but I also highlighted in my comments, energy policy and global trade, shipping routes (for navy access & trade), as well as religion (dominant muslim factions such as Shia v Sunni, let alone Arab v Jew) and local tribalism add to it. Hugely complex and hugely unstable by the fact that all these factors are changing month to month, let alone year to year. Anyone who is looking for a Northern Ireland type settlement and think we will "solve" this is either an extreme optimist, an idiot or a liar. In my view, this will always be with us in our lifetime and beyond. The average Joe probably considers the events through what the BBC & Sky News tell them, what their political allegiances tell them to side with, how their friends think, how they feel about religion, or how they feel about humanity. But humanity or "their people" isn't what the people behind this war are thinking, and that is the saddest part.
The first time I realised it wasn't what the news was telling me, or what was right or wrong, was a book on oil trade and energy market conflict. Like many of us, I suspected that greed was at play, but did not know the how's and why's. The Blair invasion of Iraq around 2003 got my goat, and I started asking questions about it. When a relative of mine who worked at the high end in oil (and was engaged to an American oil 'diplomat') tipped me off I read the book he recommended by an oil-insider and oil analyst. After I read it I was on holiday with him in the Caribbean and he asked what I thought. I said "Sick. Pretty ruthless too.". He said "Yeah, I work in that industry and I keep hearing stories all the time, but my other half's job confirms it. This game is ugly. I will do a few more years, take the money and get out of it and retire." He did.
When I read that book I was blown away and chased the primary sources, of which one was a gas & oil map of pipelines, as I was learning about doing oil trading back around 2004-2006. As always some pipelines are being built, others in construction, and others in consideration. These days there are several Oil & gas maps online, but you should look at them alongside a normal map and see why some countries will be fought over, and others not. So by looking at the map below you can see how important being friendly to certain countries is, in order to maintain trade and energy stability. Consider the routes to pipe oil and gas from source to European and Asian markets. Consider how military can move their navies. Consider where your goods come from and where they go to be sold. If you have an IQ over 60, you can begin to see where the real motivations are, and why some countries go to war a lot, or why they get special exemptions.
https://globalenergymonitor.org/proj...r/tracker-map/
The Suez is important to get oil exports to Europe cheaply. Shipping is always the cheapest form of logistics, over trucking or air freight. Trade also goes through Suez. The US & West need a friendly leader in charge of Egypt and Israel owning that land free of challenge. If so, the Suez should present a fairly friendly path for all global trade to reach US and Europe. Oil can be pumped from Saudi via pipelines through friendly pipelines in friendly countries, or via cargo ships out of Suez. Providing these pipelines for oil and gas are protected, or trade routes through Suez, then inflation stays stable, so should interest rates, and life is The West is easier. If these are threatened the opposite happens. Look at The Suez canal history in 1950s and Yom Kippur War of 1970s, and see the effects on inflation, historic interest rates and our economy if these are not secure. In addition, if Israel lose their territory to Iran, then being next to Egypt, Egypt may also be the next target to fall under Iranian influence, and Shia militias or Muslim Brotherhood people re-emerging inside Egypt, and further trouble for global trade and energy market stability.
If you want to throw in some leftfield ideas, google the Ben Gurion canal. The Ben Gurion canal was a project in the 1960s where the Israelis wanted to help the West by competing with Suez by having a separate canal. This would make shipping prices more competitive, but also make money for Israel through shipping fees. Some speculate that Israel's recent moves to clear out Gaza Strip is connected to eliminating threats to a renewed Ben Gurion canal project, now that Israel is far richer.
https://www.newarab.com/news/what-is...y-gaza-matters
I also speculate (and see it more likely) that Israel sees an opportunity to straighten the Saudi pipeline right through West Bank and out to the sea via Israeli ports. Israel has already made some big gas finds offshore so the port of Haifa and maybe another one will boom in trade soon as refineries refine the stuff nearby. At the moment, it pulls back and goes into Lebanon, but Hezbollah are pirating the pipeline and taking money to arm themselves, so the line is a target. If you look at the oil pipeline link I put further up, it would suit Saudi interests (pro-Israeli) and Israel (commercial fees) to get rid of that Z-bend in the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" pipe, make it shorter and cut out Iran-supporting Lebanon by pushing the "Trans-Arabian Oil Pipeline" in a shorter straight line through West Bank and out to sea. But it would be currently too risky for Israel and Saudi to build it, with Hamas and Israel-hating Palestinians in there. "Clear them out and build it" is what I think they are up to. The Ben Gurion canal may come later, but I think the Saudi pipeline is the real driver here.
In summary, and I hope it answers a few questions, trying to view this through partisan lines will see the average reader making error after error in forecasts. Unfortunately, the Middle East is a chessboard for big player chess strategy, and oil, trade and maritime logistics driving key decisions and wars. What matters to local people there is a side hobby to the US and West, China, Russia, Israel and Iran. Everyone else in the region is being played by these big players - yes in the name of greed and profit, but also securing and growing their own military and trade empires.
Nothing changes. This no different to Russia-Turkey war over the Bosphorus shipping lanes, Russia-Japan war over sea access, Spanish and Portuguese invasions of Latin American for gold and silver, British invasion of India for silk, cotton precious metals and staging posts for Asian conquest, Second World War German occupation of Greece for maritime naval access, Austro-Hungarian pre-World War One attack on Serbia over the Sanjak railway route, or Russian invasion of Afghanistan (to get near the Pakistan sea access). History is repeating itself. Trade, security of logistical routes, naval / military routes, money, empire. Old ruses, new excuses. Only the players and details change.
Originally Posted by Keyser Soze
Yes, but I also highlighted in my comments, energy policy and global trade, shipping routes (for navy access & trade), as well as religion (dominant muslim factions such as Shia v Sunni, let alone Arab v Jew) and local tribalism add to it. Hugely complex and hugely unstable by the fact that all these factors are changing month to month, let alone year to year. Anyone who is looking for a Northern Ireland type settlement and think we will "solve" this is either an extreme optimist, an idiot or a liar. In my view, this will always be with us in our lifetime and beyond. The average Joe probably considers the events through what the BBC & Sky News tell them, what their political allegiances tell them to side with, how their friends think, how they feel about religion, or how they feel about humanity. But humanity or "their people" isn't what the people behind this war are thinking, and that is the saddest part.
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