Quote Originally Posted by LA Bluebird View Post
Without touching on French employment law, I do wonder how this expert estimation that we had > 50% chance of staying up will be received in a court of law, when the defense can just as responsibly argue he could have broke his leg in his first training session with us.

I would guess that possibility is figured into this oddly specific range, but surely courts deal with facts and will be loath to hand out 100m based on probability alone?
In respect of your final paragraph, there have been quite significant decisions made by governments made on assumptions and modelling in very recent times which have been happily accepted as fact , so I’d say that City are completely correct in using a modelling approach in this regard.