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Much simpler now.
If we beat Ireland we're in the playoffs. If Serbia don't win we win the group.
If we draw against Ireland we won't make the playoffs, but if Georgia beat Serbia by 2 goals or more, we win the group.
If we lose against Ireland it'll be Romania, Scotland etc all over again.
Confusing as fek. Can you remind me why we can't finish above Croatia if we both draw our final game?
2nd place table from http://www.uefa.com/european-qualifi...d=2506867.html
Pos. Grp Team Pld Pts GD GF
1 B Portugal 7 18 +18 22
2 G Italy 7 14 +3 11
3 A Sweden 7 13 +10 17
4 E Denmark 7 13 +7 12
5 C Northern Ireland 7 13 +5 10
6 H Greece 8 13 +4 9
7 D Wales 7 11 +2 7
8 I Croatia 7 11 +2 6
9 F Scotland 7 11 -1 8
If we both draw by the same scoreline or we score more than Croatia we'll make the playoff (not sure why I didn't make that clear). If we both draw and goals scored are the same, it's almost certain we'll lose out on yellow cards received.
Fecking yellow cards?
We know it's going to happen like that don't we?
Originally Posted by Eric the Half a Bee
What happens if Ukraine beat Croatia where do they stand in all this bollox???
Yeh, they can go above us with a win as I believe will Slovakia if they win and finish 2nd.
I think as well as Croatia described above, we can also mathematically qualify with a draw if also Scotland draw or lose and Malta miraculously win or draw in Slovakia. Erm, I think.
All too complicated and quite unlikely. We need a win.
Where it gets interesting is if Scotland don’t win and Slovakia only win 1-0. If we then draw I am not sure if Slovakia would finish above us.
Slovakia's result doesn't matter today. They're playing Malta. They already have 12 points and a +5 GD (I think)
I may be wrong but I think it’s the overall goal difference that matters. So if they end up with 18 points like us if we draw they are both on 12 points net of the six points taken from the bottom placed team. The overall goal difference is then applied, ie their respective goal differences from all of their group games. I may be wrong on this it really is farcical
Don't think so. The wikipedia page says 'matches' against the bottom teams are removed and the table shows the goal difference excluding those games.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_F...A_Second_Round
Don't think so Pearcey. We're showing +2 in the table above and are currently +8 overall.
From the UEFA website: http://www.uefa.com/european-qualifi...d=2506867.html
With matches against the bottom side in the six-team groups discounted, the runners-up are ranked by the following criteria, in this order, as per FIFA competition regulations, article 20 paragraph 6, criteria a), b), c), then h) and i):
1 Highest number of points
2 Best goal difference
3 Highest number of goals scored
4 Fair play points (first yellow card -1pts; second yellow card/indirect red card -3pts; direct red card -4pts; yellow card, direct red card -5pts)
5 Drawing of lots
This suggests to me that goal difference earned against the bottom side is discounted, like points won, hence us having a GD of +2 on the table of 2nd placed teams.
Yep sorry everyone. I have it wrong. So you could have a situation with two teams from different groups level on points and that one of them has a better overall goal difference than the other but misses out because the other has a better goal difference when games against the bottom team are discounted. Jeez. FIFA are tossers.
Which, even though the whole thing is shit, is the fairest way of doing it because the bottom teams range from being capable of getting a result to never going to get a result in a million years. Moldova would beat San Marino and Gibraltar by 5 or 6
Yes true enough but why not just have 8 groups and rid us of all this nonsense. We are in a much more competitive group than some of the others and could be punished for it.
This is true. At present, there are 3 countries with no points - San Marino, Gibraltar and Lichtenstein. There are another 2 countries with 1 point - Malta and Kosovo, where no doubt both countries felt like they won the World Cup after their point! Two more countries have 2 points - Moldova and Kasakhstan. Of the 4 countries with 2 points or less, only Kasakhstan took points off a team placed higher than 5th (Poland, the group leaders, in a shock result).
Group A and B have two teams in 5th and 6th place sharing the same number of points (Belarus and Luxembourg on 5 points in Group A, Latvia and Andorra on 4 points in Group B).
There are 5 countries below Moldova in the UEFA rankings. Unsurprisingly these are Gibraltar, San Marino, Malta, Lichtenstein and Kosovo. Those 5 are arguably the cannon fodder at the moment. Then comes a cluster of about 10 or so countries that are just above that standard, Moldova included in that.
I suppose it's right to discard results against the bottom side. But in some groups, the 5th ranked side is quite poor, where in other groups it is stronger (Cyprus and Finland currently lying 5th springs to mind). There'll never be an ideal solution to this.
Not particularly. If you split the current FIFA rankings up into 6 groups of 9, like the current format, you'd get the following (country, group number, group position, so Germany are group 1, position 1, Italy group 2, position 1):
Wales G1 P8
Serbia G3 P2
Ireland G3 P3
Austria G4 P2
Georgia G5 P8
Moldova G6 P4
Moldova are just a notch up from the worst countries. Georgia, despite their passing ability, are one of the worst 5th seeds. Serbia are still ranked 20th in Europe, so we've not had to face any other team close to us in the rankings (like Switzerland/Portugal, Spain/Italy, Iceland/Croatia/Ukraine, France/Netherlands/Sweden all tougher than ours).
Much more competitive? Not sure.
When you put it like that, I actually think they're right to discount. Otherwise you can have a situation where one team is out just because they spanked the shitty team 7-0 over two matches rather than 13-0. Sweden just beat Luxembourg 8-0 at home, that kind of result will probably happen a couple of times over the whole qualifying campaign and it shouldn't become significant.
Just win & the Serbs bugger up, makes life simple👍👍
Can you imagine that actually happening. I would go absolutely mental.
It would be a boon for the old blood pressure over the next six weeks or so.
Really?Much simpler now.
If we beat Ireland we're in the playoffs. If Serbia don't win we win the group.
If we draw against Ireland we won't make the playoffs, but if Georgia beat Serbia by 2 goals or more, we win the group.
If we lose against Ireland it'll be Romania, Scotland etc all over again.
As I see it we are guaranteed to get to play offs with a draw.Bosnia can now only get 17 points whilst Greece are on 16 but play Gibraltar who are bottom so they cannot add points. A draw with Ireland gives us 18 so a DRAW GUARANTEES a play off
But Greece are guaranteed to finish on 13 pts after deductions - a draw is t enough - we have to win at the moment
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