Brexit means brexit

[Eric Cartman]

I'm so tired of this pantomime now. Almost nobody can be objective. Brexiteers believe it will be an unequivocal success and if it isn't then everyone other than themselves will be to blame - for some it will be Europe being mean, others will blame remainers for being remainers but the main escaped goat will be May because, well, she is easy to pick on.

Meanwhile remainers all secretly are drooling at the thought of it all going tits up so they can tell their mate who voted brexit that they actually were a gullible bus reading retard after all.

This is the perfect sideshow for the government while further cuts take place here in the UK.

Extra marks for the first person who points out that if I am tired of brexit then the best way to avoid it isn't to start a thread about it. I see this place as group therapy so please help me through this troubling time.

[life on mars]

Your point about the board and therapy is very interesting as I have used in states of depression , joy and anger , I don't let stupid ill advised personal comments get to me me in fact I enjoy it , everyone has a point and is free to apply it,it makes me smile if you make a view that perhaps sits with one party or another folk naturally think your a Tory or Labour fan .

My current view on the latest outburst about free movement are :

Trying to force a different opinion form Labour and grab the outcry ( they are quiet about it , easy being in opposition isn't it )

Cow tailing to certain extent to far right of the Tory party

Putting a cat amongst the pigeons within Europe as they are not moving on the trade agreement quickly enough ,its called politics.

Appeasing to that large group of people that voted out in Labour /UKIP heartlands,who have been very badly hit by the influx of free movement and grabbed their jobs and effected their services such as dentist and doctors ,this group could decide the next election with the young who may now realise that free tuition fees may have been a banner headline in the via ans the 350 billion NHS bus banner .

Are people that naive ?

[Eric Cartman]

Your point about the board and therapy is very interesting as I have used in states of depression , joy and anger , I don't let stupid ill advised personal comments get to me me in fact I enjoy it , everyone has a point and is free to apply it,it makes me smile if you make a view that perhaps sits with one party or another folk naturally think your a Tory or Labour fan .

My current view on the latest outburst about free movement are :

Trying to force a different opinion form Labour and grab the outcry ( they are quiet about it , easy being in opposition isn't it )

Cow tailing to certain extent to far right of the Tory party

Putting a cat amongst the pigeons within Europe as they are not moving on the trade agreement quickly enough ,its called politics.

Appeasing to that large group of people that voted out in Labour /UKIP heartlands,who have been very badly hit by the influx of free movement and grabbed their jobs and effected their services such as dentist and doctors ,this group could decide the next election with the young who may now realise that free tuition fees may have been a banner headline in the via ans the 350 billion NHS bus banner .

Are people that naive ?

The difference between the tuition fee pledge and the bus promise is pretty straightforward. One would involve a reorganisation of our priorities, if the country wanted free higher education it could offer it. I am not convinced the UK does want this. Weirdly it was singled out by the media as 'cash for votes', well technically every single policy that involves money is doing this if you operate on the principle that the majority of people vote selfishly (and I generally get this impression when I talk to people about voting).

The bus pledge was simply a lie, the money doesn't exist, it included a portion that was already returned to us in rebates - ironically it was perfectly illustrative of the leave camps 'have our cake and eat it' attitude.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

Arguably the worst bit about Brexit is that no-one can say for certain what people voted for when they voted leave. The referendum slip simply said Membership of the European Union. Nothing else.

Since then, there's been talk of hard Brexit, soft Brexit, Norwegian-style etc etc, with leave voters advocating which they prefer. Some leave voters want us to stay in the single market and customs union, some don't. All this has led to confusion, no direction in negotiations. When there's a whiff of us staying in the single market, the harder Brexiters and the right wing media are up in arms; when there's a whiff of us suggesting we leave with no deal, those not favouring a hard Brexit (which includes plenty of leave voters) are up in arms. The whole thing is a mess that no-one can agree on.

So who is going to decide? It's basically now down to the further right leaning faction of the Conservatives (and the media who back them) vs the more moderate Conservatives. The winners will decide what form Brexit will take. Basically, our future outside Europe will be determined by whichever Tory group can bully and strike the hardest blows on the other to get their way. That hardly seems democratic to me. My money is on the far right Tories winning out. They have the most to lose by not having a hard Brexit. They are traditionally the nastiest when it comes to a battle.

[the other bob wilson]

Arguably the worst bit about Brexit is that no-one can say for certain what people voted for when they voted leave. The referendum slip simply said Membership of the European Union. Nothing else.

Since then, there's been talk of hard Brexit, soft Brexit, Norwegian-style etc etc, with leave voters advocating which they prefer. Some leave voters want us to stay in the single market and customs union, some don't. All this has led to confusion, no direction in negotiations. When there's a whiff of us staying in the single market, the harder Brexiters and the right wing media are up in arms; when there's a whiff of us suggesting we leave with no deal, those not favouring a hard Brexit (which includes plenty of leave voters) are up in arms. The whole thing is a mess that no-one can agree on.

So who is going to decide? It's basically now down to the further right leaning faction of the Conservatives (and the media who back them) vs the more moderate Conservatives. The winners will decide what form Brexit will take. Basically, our future outside Europe will be determined by whichever Tory group can bully and strike the hardest blows on the other to get their way. That hardly seems democratic to me. My money is on the far right Tories winning out. They have the most to lose by not having a hard Brexit. They are traditionally the nastiest when it comes to a battle.

My vote was remain, but it was a very close thing - however, in the eighteen months since the vote, I've become far more of a remainer than I was back then.

[Wales-Bales]

It's the globalists who are attempting to sabotage Brexit, and the current PM was chosen, not elected.

[Wales-Bales]

Arguably the worst bit about Brexit is that no-one can say for certain what people voted for when they voted leave. The referendum slip simply said Membership of the European Union. Nothing else.

And why would Cameron have put anything else on it? This was the Plan B get out clause that is currently being played out.

[CardiffIrish2]

One of the reasons I voted remain was that there was no clear plan and it was a squalid little grubby grab for power within the Conservative party.

I see no difference today. The farce that keeps giving.

[lardy]

And why would Cameron have put anything else on it? This was the Plan B get out clause that is currently being played out.

You're one of a handful of people who thinks this is all part of the longterm plan.

[Wales-Bales]

One of the reasons I voted remain was that there was no clear plan and it was a squalid little grubby grab for power within the Conservative party.

I see no difference today. The farce that keeps giving.

Brexit is forever not just for today.

[Wales-Bales]

You're one of a handful of people who thinks this is all part of the longterm plan.

I'd be worried if it wasn't!

[lardy]

I'd be worried if it wasn't!

Most people are very worried.

[Wales-Bales]

Most people are very worried.

At least they have a plan to wreck Brexit

[cyril evans awaydays]

It is all well and good saying what is wrong with the world we are leaving, what is missing is a clear articulation of the world we are about to enter and the reasons why that is better than all the other options on the table.

The only way that May can keep her party on board is by promising each wing of the debate something it holds dear. So we have on one end leave the single market, customs union, controls EU immigration and provides freedom to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world. On the other end a deal with the EU that provides frictionless trade, no hard border with Ireland and includes provision for free movement of services for the financial sector and others. The Labour party meanwhile is more pro-European but in a cowardly trap where it recognises that control of immigration is the major factor playing on the doorstep of its voters and potential voters so it too is riddled with ambiguity to preserve unity.

The agreement with the EU in December just kicked the can down the road but it is impossible to be able to negotiate a sensible outcome for the country without a clear vision of an achievable end state and a set of leaders who are able to put the national interest above their party or faction to achieve it. We are miles away from that. Rubbishing civil servants for producing analysis that Ministers requested rather than using that analysis to start mitigating risk is another symptom of this malaise.

[Eric the Half a Bee]

it is impossible to be able to negotiate a sensible outcome for the country without a clear vision of an achievable end state and a set of leaders who are able to put the national interest above their party or faction to achieve it. We are miles away from that. Rubbishing civil servants for producing analysis that Ministers requested rather than using that analysis to start mitigating risk is another symptom of this malaise.

Yes, absolutely.

[CardiffIrish2]

It is all well and good saying what is wrong with the world we are leaving, what is missing is a clear articulation of the world we are about to enter and the reasons why that is better than all the other options on the table.

The only way that May can keep her party on board is by promising each wing of the debate something it holds dear. So we have on one end leave the single market, customs union, controls EU immigration and provides freedom to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world. On the other end a deal with the EU that provides frictionless trade, no hard border with Ireland and includes provision for free movement of services for the financial sector and others. The Labour party meanwhile is more pro-European but in a cowardly trap where it recognises that control of immigration is the major factor playing on the doorstep of its voters and potential voters so it too is riddled with ambiguity to preserve unity.

The agreement with the EU in December just kicked the can down the road but it is impossible to be able to negotiate a sensible outcome for the country without a clear vision of an achievable end state and a set of leaders who are able to put the national interest above their party or faction to achieve it. We are miles away from that. Rubbishing civil servants for producing analysis that Ministers requested rather than using that analysis to start mitigating risk is another symptom of this malaise.

Far too much common sense in this reply.....👏👍

[life on mars]

My vote was remain, but it was a very close thing - however, in the eighteen months since the vote, I've become far more of a remainer than I was back then.

And me I voted to remain , since the decesion I have grown intensely to dislike Junker and the rest of the self pitying spin doctors pals , who at various stages of the negoation discharge inflammatory information , to create uncertainty within the current goverment .

I have wondered if they think a Labour goverment maybe more conciliatory to thier viewpoint of a soft Brexit deal , which would better meet thier views on the free movement of Labour .

[lardy]

Funny isnt it - that to think these used to be political allies, working together in a common market - as long we paid are membership fees etc etc. All of a sudden we make a democratic decision and they want to crush us - just goes to show what they really think.

They'll probably bomb us as well.

[Eric Cartman]

Maybe it will be far easier to walk away, pay the EU the little that we actually owe them and go back to just trade only, rather than pay 50billion just so we can be members of a few EU memberships clubs, I think the EU Medicines Council the EU banking authority are 2 big ones. They are bound to move post Brexit, you watch though as the rest of the 27 fight like rats in a sack to be the place they move to.

When we are out of the EU - we'll also be out of institutions like these as well, we will have no control or say over how they are run or the rules they implement anyway - so not sure if it's worth being a member, maybe these will just be used as a bargaining chip - as to what we get for our 50 billion present ?

What is this amount?

[Eric Cartman]

This is the first trade deal, imagine how twisty your knickers will all be once we start talking to countries who have less to lose than the EU. I personally thought we would just sail around the world collecting bags of cash from countries desperate to please us.

Our perverse delusions of having our cake and eating it haven't come true so a new spin is required ('Europe trying to crush us' - boo hiss to them).

[Wales-Bales]

The EU is a Hoover that vacuums up money, and it seems as if they are attempting to be the first nation to finally prove that a socialist state really can work

[CardiffIrish2]

No customs union means trade barriers apparently.

With a deep sigh I have to ask is Brexit so worth it ? I’d say at best I’ve been indifferent to the EU over the years but what a monumental pain in the arse this exiting is.....

[cyril evans awaydays]

If anyone wishes to understand the scale of the task it is worth studying the EU website on trade agreements in place and under negotiation.

http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/cou...ing-negotiated

Every signed agreement that the EU has with these countries will fall into abeyance when we leave. Presumably to keep trade flowing we will have a transition arrangement under the current terms (modified to cater for whatever custom arrangements we negotiate with the EU in the interim). Then we have to negotiate a more favourable trade deal with these countries than the EU representing 28 countries was able to get, otherwise what is the point.

For those in negotiation such as Mercosur with Latin American countries we will need to detach ourselves from this then negotiate either separate deals with Brazil, Argentina, Chile etc or one with the block. Again at a better outcome than the EU was able to achieve. The EU started negotiations in 2010 and an agreement is still some way away.

More positively Trump stopped EU/US trade negotiations and has promised an easy deal with the UK (setting aside his MAGA agenda and no deals that do not favour the US) which could leapfrog anything the EU can muster. It is also possible that deals that better fit UK circumstances (the EU and South America arguing over easier access for wine for instance when it is marginal to us) for instance that could speed things up. Similarly though there could be a hiatus for some countries where the EU has signed an agreement post Brexit and we have yet to put a deal in place. I presume that these things factored into the analysis being rubbished by those on the Brexit crusade.

[Eric Cartman]

I thought you would have known the legal status of article 50 Eric, most disappointed.

If there is a NO DEAL outcome - and the time duration is up - then in purely legal terms - we owe nothing BUT that would also mean we would have walked away - so there would be no deal on other things as well.

There is the grey issue of article 70 of the Vienna convention - that is to do with international treaties. So the EU may argue this case, but from what I have read the Article 50 treaty would trump the article 70 treaty (I think) because of the EU treaty itself already caters for this - with Article 50 - so it would be a weak arguing point from the EU.

And as we all know Eric - Article 50 does not say anything about money or rights or obligations. Article 50 says "the treaties shall cease to apply to the state in question" either when a withdrawal agreement takes effect, or two years after the Article 50 process has been triggered by the member state that intends to leave.

So in legal theory alone - walk away means walk away. But as we all know - we have things they want - and they have things we want. So a business driven compromise will be found. Politically fudged agreements with be put together in the 2 years post 2019 - I think anyway. With the main core agreement in place for 2019.

2018- to 2021 is a very long time in politics , we could have Prime Minister Blair II , Prime Minister Corbyn () , another Conservative PM. I dont think / hope there will be another General Election before 2021. When the new PM could offer a second referendum. I forgot to add in the vote in Parliament at the end of Article 50 - where MPs get to vote on accepting what is on offer - or walk away - at least I think that's what they are going to vote on.

Yeah I have done the 'read wiki for an hour' and lecture people on CCMB thing before, it is jolly good fun isn't it?

I think there is some acceptance outside of your rattling skull that we have agreed to certain actions, policies and initiatives which extend beyond the deadline. We are therefore morally obliged to settle up on these, I thought you had been a smart little cookie and calculated this (accounting for our share of any assets) because that would be a useful baseline (hence my question...).

[Eric Cartman]

Eric - why the anger mate ? what's up ?

What is angry about that?