Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
10 seasons - 30 teams relegated from the Premier league.
In terms of points won by the bottom 3 after 11 games, only the total at this stage in 2012/13 (6,5,4 pts) is lower than this season. As a general rule of thumb, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 11 games, the lower the points total for the bottom 3 after 38 games, though there have been exceptions, most noticeably in 2009/10 when the bottom 3 totalled 25 points at this stage (3rd highest in the 10 years) yet had the lowest points tally of all bottom 3 sides of the decade.
14 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 after 11 games, 12 were in the bottom half but outside of the relegation zone, 4 were in the top half.
12 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals conceded after 11 games. 6 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 12, 9 were able to lower the number of goals conceded on average, with 4 scoring less on average as a result.
7 of those 30 were in the bottom 3 of goals scored after 11 games. 5 were in the top half of such a table. Of those 7, all found ways of scoring more goals on average, with 4 being defensively better as well.
By the end of the season:
19 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded table. 10 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals conceded after 11 games table.
15 of the 30 relegated sides were in the bottom 3 of the goals scored table. 5 of those were also in the bottom 3 of the goals scored after 11 games table.
What does it mean?
Goodness knows, to be honest.
3 teams have had less points than us at this stage and survived. Plenty of teams have had worse defensive and scoring records than us and stayed up, though they have had to improve both in order to avoid relegation.
Basically, if we continue as we have done for the rest of the season, relegation is more likely than not based on happenings over the last decade.