Reply With QuoteLet’s be fair. We’ve been fighting relegation since the first ball was kicked this season.
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Looks like the bookies think Huddesfield are down. The next 2 places are between Cardiff, Fulham and Burnley, with Burnley big favourites to stay up. Newcastle now 1-16 on to stay up after beating Man City and signing Miguel Almiron.
Hopefully we will get a few good results and our odds will shorten to stay up, but for now it looks like we are one of 4 teams fighting relegation.
Let’s be fair. We’ve been fighting relegation since the first ball was kicked this season.
Let’s be honest , we were fighting relegation before we got there !Originally Posted by William Treseder
All last season we were deemed not good enough to go up and pundits like Sutton during the summer deemed us “worst premier league team ever”
All I can ask of the manager and the players is to try their best to win games preferably with a better style of football than against Huddersfield and Newcastle!
I know we haven't had great odds all season, but only a few weeks ago there wasn't much between us and Newcastle and we were similar odds to Burnley and Southampton. Now the gap is massive.
We’ve done better than many people expected. The last time around we finished rock bottom. If we make a fight of it and push all the way but just fall short at the end, as opposed to drifting away by mid March, then I’ll be proud of what this team will have achieved in the last 2 seasons.
Interesting to see how the odds have changed after the last 2 wins. Even though our odds have shortened so have Burnley's. Newcastle, Southampton and especially Brighton are a lot closer to ours.
I just don't get how Southampton's chances of staying up can be considered to be so much better than ours when we are above them in the table and they play Arsenal, Manchester United and Spurs in their next four games - I know their run in doesn't look too bad after that, but they could be quite a few points adrift of safety by then.
Last I saw was that we were evens and the closest around us was 4/1. Seems incredible that the difference should be so large.
Be interesting to see how they change if we get a win or 2 in these upcoming home gamed
Hopefully their goal difference will now take a pounding too.....
I think the last relegation spot is between Burnley, Brighton, Southampton and ourselves.
We still have away trips to Burnley & Brighton ..... Therefore our destiny is in our own hands
Bookies odds are reflective of how the public think things will pan out. Lengthening odds because less people put money on something, shortening as people try to lump on a near-cert too avoid losses.
It just means we're still unfancied by the public at large. I've seen most of our recent performances and think we have no problem staying up if we can keep that going, while the vast majority of the public will just believe what they hear about us.
On a similar level, I went to the World Darts at Ally Pally. Wayne Mardle was playing Co Stompe in one match. In the bar area there's a betting stall and I noticed that, though I'm not a gambler but find odds interesting, that Mardle's odds had shortened in a couple of hours. Myself and Mrs Bee were sitting on one of the long tables with a group of blokes, all supporting Mardle (as was virtually all of the crowd). They all had their betting slips for a Mardle win and we were chatting away. I mentioned that Stompe was in excellent form, had managed several 100 averages in floor tournaments and had only recently thrashed Phil Taylor in a final of some event. Stompe had rarely shown that form, but he was now enjoying the best run of his career. "Looks like need got that wrong" joked one bloke. None of them were aware of the finer points. Stompe won 4-0.
Brighton were 16/1 when I looked at the weekend and I thought they were a good bet. Down to 8/1 now.
Brighton are the team in freefall with just 1 win in 11 matches leaving them just 3 points clear of the drop. I think their odds of relegation are much higher than these odds suggest.
Looking at it dispassionately, if I was a bookie, I would probably have us as favourites to go down in the last relegation spot (with Huddersfield and Fulham the other two). I think it'll be close though, and one freak result either way could swing things
What are the odds for us to stay up?
That is true in smaller markets like that, but in the EPL relegation market I'm not sure that betting will have much of an impact. While bookies do need to balance their books, they are not going to offer value either (i.e. odds longer than the actual probability) as that gives rise to arbitrage opportunities and therefore punters making profitable decisions. It does happen - the patriots got backed from underdog to favourite for the superbowl in a matter of hours - but I think we are favourites to go down because that is the most likely outcome, not just because people lumped on it. Put it another way: if the bookies really did think that say Southampton were more likely candidates but had taken heavy bets on cardiff to go down, I doubt they would be offering 9/2 on the saints.
we are currently as short as 4/5.
We are mostly odds on (5/6 seems about average) but you can get evens on us at some bookies. So odds on to be relegated and odds on to stay up.... they ain't daft, these bookmakers.
On the other hand, if they thought Cardiff were likely to go down but had taken heavy bets on, say, Southampton, they couldn't keep offering tempting odds on Southampton. Bookies might gamble on their own hunches but, like you say, they need to balance their books and so, if they had a lot of money put on something, they have to shorten those odds to protect themselves. To not address that could be very costly and bookies don't like risking their own money.
Think you can add Everton to that. Especially if we can get a win against them. I don't think they'll get relegated but I reckon they could definitely get pulled into the mix.
Saying that though, after they play us, I hope they go on a winning streak as they play most of the teams around us.
They've got 33 points, they're averaging about a point a game in all form tables. They've got far too many points to get sucked in.
If we went out to 3 or 4/1 to go down, people would start lumping on. I probably would, too.
Yeah they're safe, I think 38 points should be enough
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