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Since changing to 20 teams in 1995 the average points needed to win the league has been 86.4, so as your rightly point out 87 points would normally be enough for the title (It would have won in 13 out of the last 23 seasons). That would be an improvement of 17 points on their previous campaign, with a new manager implementing a new style of play in a league he'd never managed in before
Only an idiot would think that kind of improvement is a realistic target.
You are misinterpreting the graph. It shows the performance of the Top 6 teams relative to each other over the course of the season, and also indicates whether each team is ahead or behind a projected title winning points target. If Chelsea were treading water their line on the graph would be more horizontal, instead it is diagonal which indicates a constant decline which started around the 14th game. This decline is relative to the other Top 6 teams as well as the baseline. I'm sorry if you are unable interpret the graph correctly, but it does do a good job of tracking the performance of the top teams using two important metrics IMO.