Reply With QuoteUKIP?Originally Posted by Nelsonca61
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I like many listen to various talk shows in the car when travelling to work and back, it's amusing listening to political guests just towing the party line in that it's the other party that they will take from.
I don't think they will get any seats or very few at the most, but who will they steal the most votes from?
Labour in the North and Wales, Tories in the South outside the M25 corridor ? will they get enough Tory votes to allow Jezza in the back door ?
UKIP?
Yes, never considered, was only thinking of the two main parties who could win the election.
tbf UKIP only ended up with less than 2% of the vote in 2017 having started at around 12% when the election was called. Brexit Party is around 10% at the moment. The key thing as you suggest will be regional variations but Farage could get squeezed the same way that Nuttall was in 2017. If that happens then I think it will be generally to the Tories' advantage
They'll get votes from labour voters who want Brexit but who won't vote conservative
Yes the talk shows are a great listening posts,
LBC is an intresting one these days.
My gut tells me that both the Liberal vote and Brexit will eat into both the main parties based on the referendum.
Think voters have a stark choice and it will be Brext driven by :
Brexit Party wanting no deal.
Tories exit with the agreed deal on the table.
Lib's/SNP/Greens/Plaid stay in withdrawal article 50.
Labour delicate balancing act, in an attempt to apease all .
God knows what will happen, uncertain times.
The only hope is a big conservative majority so Brexit can be done and we can get back to respecting democracy. Anything else and the country will become ungovernable.
Mind you , we don't yet know whether the liberal minority would accept a general election if they lost, or whether they'd start demanding another one.
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