Covid 19.....You are going to get it ....100%

[Croesy Blue]

5% of 66.5 million is 3,250,000

At that number the death rate is incomprehensible to us. It becomes a simple but horrifying statistic.

I was saying if we said 5% of the country are of have been infected giving us 4000 deaths we’d get 80000 if everyone was infected if we assume a linear trend.

I know it’s much worse than that in reality.

[Gofer Blue]

But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)

So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?

I agree. If the vast majority of people, as we are led to believe, are following the "stay at home" advice wherever possible then the percentage of folk exposed to the virus could be quite small. Then when everything looks hunky-dorey and the masses are let loose once more the whole saga could start all over again. On a positive note, viruses can only survive if there are hosts to reproduce it, so isn't it possible that the COVID-19 virus could literally have died out before this happens?

[Heathblue]

There is no cure .

There wont be a vaccine for some time .

For the country to move forward and get back on its feet , on the whole ,we all have to get it .

Once the number of deaths drop below a certain point , restrictions will be lifted and we will start again.

The deaths are being controlled , which is of course sensible .

The hospital in the millennium stadium is a sign of things to come .

The only positive I can think about it at the moment is a lot of us have had it and aren't aware.

Anyone disagree with my interpretation of the current situation ?

Bill Gates to the rescue and the mandatory Vaccination program. Is it almost ready to be rolled out? no idea.!!!
regarding deaths being controlled, I wouldn't go with this Jimmy, I would guess like many, now having additional time
at home I have watched zillions of Youtube hours on this, some just medical stuff, some conspiracy stuff, for all the testing that
Germany has done, they haven't really flattened their curve and their curve is basically following the western European curve and the American curve, would be interesting to see the Swedish curve who have chosen to follow a different path, I would not disagree with many may have had it, and maybe their immune system has coped well with it and the illness being put down to the common flu, It's a bloody awful situation, so to answer your question do I agree or disagree?, i'm going to take the 5th!!!.

[lardy]

But how (and this question is aimed at everybody not just you) does slowly relaxing the rules not mean a slow build up of patients again? So if we slowly relax the rules and in 8 months it's more or less back to normal then why doesn't the virus spread like wildfire again in 8 months? There's no vaccine, nothing's really changed, nowhere near enough people will have had it for effective herd immunity (assuming that 80% of the population won't have had it by then)

So how do we get back to normal before a vaccine arrives? What am I missing?

Yeah it will, but that also gives the economy a bit of breathing space. It's probably hanging over us until the vaccine comes but it will be in peaks and waves, so they'll close on the way up and open on the way down.

[delmbox]

Bill Gates to the rescue and the mandatory Vaccination program. Is it almost ready to be rolled out? no idea.!!!
regarding deaths being controlled, I wouldn't go with this Jimmy, I would guess like many, now having additional time
at home I have watched zillions of Youtube hours on this, some just medical stuff, some conspiracy stuff, for all the testing that
Germany has done, they haven't really flattened their curve and their curve is basically following the western European curve and the American curve, would be interesting to see the Swedish curve who have chosen to follow a different path, I would not disagree with many may have had it, and maybe their immune system has coped well with it and the illness being put down to the common flu, It's a bloody awful situation, so to answer your question do I agree or disagree?, i'm going to take the 5th!!!.

pardon

[Heathblue]

pardon

Basically, Bill Gates will be 1st with the vaccination
Do I agree with Jimmy?, not yes, not no
Cheers.

[Jimmy the Jock]

Yeah it will, but that also gives the economy a bit of breathing space. It's probably hanging over us until the vaccine comes but it will be in peaks and waves, so they'll close on the way up and open on the way down.

That's the only reason they will open the doors before the virus is beaten .

If we continue as is , the economy will be decimated .

My perception is we are trying to balance peoples lives with money .

If it goes past 3 months it could finish the business I have built over the last 25 years . I certainly wouldn't see that as a reason to put more peoples lives at risk.

[lisvaneblue]

The most recent estimate I have seen is 2.7% of the population.

We need the anti-body test.

The vaccine will come after so called herd immunity.

I hope you are right. but latest figures as of Saturday indicates that South Wales could be a hot spot for Covid-19

In England on Saturday the health authority with most cases was Birmingham 1138 cases and a population in the authority of 1.1 m. Approx 1 cases per 1000 population
Cardiff and Vale with a population of approx 495,000 had 723 cases as of Saturday, equivalent to 1 per 684 of the population. If you include todays figures we are 1 case in approx 500....ie in a CCFC stadium of 20,000 fans 40 people would have it....

[delmbox]

Basically, Bill Gates will be 1st with the vaccination
Do I agree with Jimmy?, not yes, not no
Cheers.

fair play, cheers mate

[the other bob wilson]

That is quite interesting ,would you know why they started to wane , What was the turning point ?

Sorry, I don't, I've just found this article from a couple of months ago, but, clearly, things are much further developed this time.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...china-epidemic

[Jimmy the Jock]

Sorry, I don't, I've just found this article from a couple of months ago, but, clearly, things are much further developed this time.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...china-epidemic

That is a very interesting piece .

The fact that SARS was only a problem from people that were very ill , so easier to detect and control.
SARS never really hit the heights expected
Coronavirus has many shapes and sizes , normally only giving the cold or flu.
The fact the Chinese are travelling more these days is also put down as a factor .
Perhaps / hopefully my assumptions are incorrect and covid 19 will just fade away .
I started the thread because its how I think things will go

[CCFCC3PO]

I hope you are right. but latest figures as of Saturday indicates that South Wales could be a hot spot for Covid-19

In England on Saturday the health authority with most cases was Birmingham 1138 cases and a population in the authority of 1.1 m. Approx 1 cases per 1000 population
Cardiff and Vale with a population of approx 495,000 had 723 cases as of Saturday, equivalent to 1 per 684 of the population. If you include todays figures we are 1 case in approx 500....ie in a CCFC stadium of 20,000 fans 40 people would have it....

These are recorded cases. Example, I develop a cough. I stay home. I get better. I had covid-19. I am not counted in your figure.

Example. I have no symptoms. But, I do have covid-19. I am not counted in these figures.

There are complex models that will have a degree of accuracy in terms of number of people infected - the one I saw last week said 2.7%. I would suggest that is more accurate than the figures you are quoting. Do you really think only 1138 people in Birmingham have had it?

[CCFCC3PO]

That is a very interesting piece .

The fact that SARS was only a problem from people that were very ill , so easier to detect and control.
SARS never really hit the heights expected
Coronavirus has many shapes and sizes , normally only giving the cold or flu.
The fact the Chinese are travelling more these days is also put down as a factor .
Perhaps / hopefully my assumptions are incorrect and covid 19 will just fade away .
I started the thread because its how I think things will go

What are you basing that on? I mean, do you have information that suggests that, once a person develops it, they are immune for ever? Or, do you have information that suggests that, if you have one of the 40+ strains of it, you cannot get any of the others?

Perhaps you have evidence that there won't be a covid-21, or covid-24? Or, perhaps you have evidence that a vaccine is easy when, if you consider it, the other coronavirus we know is the common cold (mild, but no cure). Do you only get the common cold once? I've had it twice this year already.

There is every chance that we will have lockdowns for the next 5 years or more. I would suggest that Governments will be a lot quicker to close borders next time.

Your comment was that "we will all get it", implying we should just get out there and get it. But, even young people are dying. Is that genetic? Or is it because they were infected with more of the virus than other people?

[The Lone Gunman]

There is every chance that we will have lockdowns for the next 5 years or more.

This is mere speculation, it’s scaremongering and it’s not helpful in my opinion.

You have no evidence whatsoever to suggest that will be the case.

[Jimmy the Jock]

What are you basing that on? I mean, do you have information that suggests that, once a person develops it, they are immune for ever? Or, do you have information that suggests that, if you have one of the 40+ strains of it, you cannot get any of the others?

Perhaps you have evidence that there won't be a covid-21, or covid-24? Or, perhaps you have evidence that a vaccine is easy when, if you consider it, the other coronavirus we know is the common cold (mild, but no cure). Do you only get the common cold once? I've had it twice this year already.

There is every chance that we will have lockdowns for the next 5 years or more. I would suggest that Governments will be a lot quicker to close borders next time.

Your comment was that "we will all get it", implying we should just get out there and get it. But, even young people are dying. Is that genetic? Or is it because they were infected with more of the virus than other people?

What am I basing what on ?
The general consensus is , once you have had it you are clear , do you have evidence other wise ?
What are you basing your 5 year lock downs on ?

I haven't implied anything of the sort .


Most of your comments on here are just a jumble of words or your perception of my comments .
You didn't like my cycle , that's fine I have accepted my actions weren't in line with the current rules.
I ignored your comments about where have I been .
I have been getting up ridiculously early and delivering , food , sanitiser , whatever needs delivering and going to bed ridiculously late . Not because I am a saint , because that what I do . Despite the dangers we carried on.
My two children have been doing the same putting all of us at risk .
I closed my business on Friday to everyone bar myself , so I will continue to work as and when needed
I will probably have a little more time to make sure I don't miss any of the rules , and I fully understand the rules are not for my interpretation .

It would probably be better you engage with others .from here on in .

[delmbox]

This is mere speculation, it’s scaremongering and it’s not helpful in my opinion.

You have no evidence whatsoever to suggest that will be the case.

Why would we be on lockdown for 4 years after we'd all been vaccinated?

[Jimmy the Jock]

Why would we be on lockdown for 4 years after we'd all been vaccinated?

Covid 24 .

[Eric the Half a Bee]

What is the infection rate? Didn't I read somewhere that one cruise had a rate of less than 20%? It's obvious that if one person has it, not everyone will get it from them. While I don't think that's a substitute for keeping a social distance and staying indoors, this is obviously important, it is important to know that people can be in a Covid-19 environment and not get it.

[CCFCC3PO]

This is mere speculation, it’s scaremongering and it’s not helpful in my opinion.

You have no evidence whatsoever to suggest that will be the case.

That is why I said "there is every chance". Just as there is "every chance" this goes away. There are lots of hopes being pinned on "herd immunity" and vaccines. However, there is no actual evidence that people will remain immune for any length of time. Similarly, there are no current vaccines for other corona viruses. That is not to say that these are impossible to develop, but they will take at least 18 months, and possibly even longer. Also, not one of the scientists has answered the question about how a vaccine would work against the various strains that are out there.

I am not saying we will be on complete lockdown for 5 years (the usual amount of time to get new vaccines and/or treatments on line) - I am saying do not be surprised if we are in a similar situation in November 2020, or in 2022, or 2024. This could very well be with us for a long time. The question will soon be "is it worth decimating businesses for this", but that decision has already been made by the actions being undertaken.

[CCFCC3PO]

Why would we be on lockdown for 4 years after we'd all been vaccinated?

Because there could be various strains.

Because there could be a new strain in 2022, or 2024, or 2025.

[Jimmy the Jock]

What is the infection rate? Didn't I read somewhere that one cruise had a rate of less than 20%? It's obvious that if one person has it, not everyone will get it from them. While I don't think that's a substitute for keeping a social distance and staying indoors, this is obviously important, it is important to know that people can be in a Covid-19 environment and not get it.

That's a good point. Factors you need to know is when did the initial carrier join the cruise , or how long into the cruise did the 20% figure show?
Lawnmower our illustrious poster is at home recovering from the virus . Another lad in his office also caught it . Tim said he was extremely careful , how did he get it , how come everyone in his office didn't catch it?

[Eric the Half a Bee]

That's a good point. Factors you need to know is when did the initial carrier join the cruise , or how long into the cruise did the 20% figure show?
Lawnmower our illustrious poster is at home recovering from the virus . Another lad in his office also caught it . Tim said he was extremely careful , how did he get it , how come everyone in his office didn't catch it?

Without doubt it's a lottery to some extent. A lottery we have more chance of winning if we keep our distance and stay at home.

[CCFCC3PO]

What am I basing what on ?
The general consensus is , once you have had it you are clear , do you have evidence other wise ?
What are you basing your 5 year lock downs on ?

I haven't implied anything of the sort .


Most of your comments on here are just a jumble of words or your perception of my comments .
You didn't like my cycle , that's fine I have accepted my actions weren't in line with the current rules.
I ignored your comments about where have I been .
I have been getting up ridiculously early and delivering , food , sanitiser , whatever needs delivering and going to bed ridiculously late . Not because I am a saint , because that what I do . Despite the dangers we carried on.
My two children have been doing the same putting all of us at risk .
I closed my business on Friday to everyone bar myself , so I will continue to work as and when needed
I will probably have a little more time to make sure I don't miss any of the rules , and I fully understand the rules are not for my interpretation .

It would probably be better you engage with others .from here on in .

You say the general consensus is "once you've had it, you're fine". However, that isn;t the case with the common cold. It really isn't. You may get a strain of the common cold this year, and get the same strain next year or the year after. There is absolutely zero evidence that you contracting Covid-19 means that you are immune forever.

I have not said there will be 5 year lock-downs, what I am saying is that there is no evidence that this will simply evaporate once we have "herd immunity".

As for your actions, although it is commendable you have delivered food etc, I have been doing exactly the same. As for your business, I have sympathy with that too. But, your previous actions (together with many like you) have done little to ease the pressure on the NHS. I am growing incredibly pissed off reading that 600, 700, 800 people have died, and that a 5 year old, a 13 year old, 3 nurses, doctors etc are also dying. It took 4 weeks of this for the penny to drop for you. I am glad it has dropped. But, there are even stupider people out there flouting the rules, elongating the current wave, and the point I am making is that this will not be the first and last wave. Far from it. We will get restrictions lifted and put back in place for at least 18 months. I say that will be longer because, despite all the "positive" stories of vaccines being tested, these things really do take years.

If the Government (advised by epidemiologists, virologists, doctors and scientists) tell us to stay home - then we ****ing stay at home. No ifs, no buts. It isn't killing people with "underlying health" conditions alone.

[CCFCC3PO]

That's a good point. Factors you need to know is when did the initial carrier join the cruise , or how long into the cruise did the 20% figure show?
Lawnmower our illustrious poster is at home recovering from the virus . Another lad in his office also caught it . Tim said he was extremely careful , how did he get it , how come everyone in his office didn't catch it?

Was he tested?

People in his office may have caught it and been asymptomatic. The general R0 figure was 2.28 on the Princess Diamond ship. It does not follow that one person will pass it on to everyone that they are in contact with.

He probably caught it from breathing in droplets from an infected person (who may have also been asymptomatic)

[uncle bob]

I'm so glad I've had it and recovered from it.
I go out now without worrying if I'm going to catch it. I still take a bit of caution like social distancing for other people's peace of mind and I will wear gloves if I push a supermarket trolley.
I no longer feel afraid to go out and be around people like I did when before I caught it.