I remember the BCG as the one out of the occasional injections we were given in school that was thought of as the most frightening - there were a lot of really scared kids, including myself, on the morning we were given it, but, in the event, it didn't seem too bad at all.
That projection is covered in more detail in this piece;-
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-predicts
which includes a chart showing that the deaths per day figure will climb over the next week or so to peak at over 2,900 in nine days time, but if you look at it closely, you'll see that the figure was supposed to go past the 1,000 per day mark on Sunday and should have been within the 1.2/1/3 k range on Monday and yesterday - the reported figures were 621 on Sunday, 439 on Monday and 786 yesterday, so,on three days when it was projected that around 3,500 people would die, 1846 did, that's around 53% of the predicted figure.