I just get the feeling that the only thing that could put a stop to people starting to ignore the lockdown, or social distancing guidelines, is a massive 2nd wave in somewhere like Spain or Italy.
+ Visit Cardiff FC for Latest News, Transfer Gossip, Fixtures and Match Results |
"The disease can jump up at any time," WHO emergencies head Dr. Mike Ryan said.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/w...id-19-n1214406
I just get the feeling that the only thing that could put a stop to people starting to ignore the lockdown, or social distancing guidelines, is a massive 2nd wave in somewhere like Spain or Italy.
It seems pretty obvious that you can get a second wave anywhere the virus is declining. If it wasn't declining it wouldn't be a second wave would it?
I second wave "Could" that magic word again. But in fact you may get a second wave whenever you lift quarantine restrictions, whether earlier or later, then again you may not!
Isn't the scientific basis that it speads quite easily when people are interacting closely? If everything goes back to normal you'd expect a jump in number of infections, you just have to hope people are behaving considerately so it doesn't spread as quickly as it did when everyone was acting as normal and that the people who've had the virus will be immune to getting it again.
Maybe I don't understand by what you mean by no scientific basis?
The scientific basis for a second wave:
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-19-epidemic-waves/
The first wave is surely a pretty good scientific basis for the second wave anyway isn't it?
Am I being stupid here? I feel like I'm really missing something.
I said that, the first wave was caused by people getting infected going about daily life. Unless the virus disappears completely people going back to every day life are going to start spreading it again and you'll get another peak that way.
That's ignoring the fact that they expect a second wave in the autumn too.
What is the progress of the vaccine? If it's going to come by autumn, couldn't it offset the effects of the second wave a bit? I do worry that if we get back to normal too soon then a second wave would happen as people may assume the danger has gone and that seems to be happening now. First time, hardly anyone had the foresight to know what'll happen but we can learn from what has happened and what is happening and apply that to pre-empt the second wave. But issue is whether the government would do anything or have a reactive approach again
A second wave will happen. The virus isn't going to disappear on its own, and the world won't be in lockdown until then, so it's inevitable.
Will there be a vaccine by then? Seems hard to believe there'll be one that's tested, effective and mass produced in less than six months.
But there's also no real.reason for governments not to respond much better this time, other than incompetence. Hopefully outbreaks should be more easily contained.
No historical precedent of a second wave of a virus? There definitely is.
Unless someone can see into the future what else are you basing an hypothosis on other than assumptions and predictions? Scientific assumptions and predictions are usually pretty acurate too, seems a strange reason to doubt something. Do you have a scientific background? You seem very sure about this.
And we always get more than 1 peak of flu every year too, usually multiple.
It would be a minor miracle not to get another peak without a virus or very well adheared too social rules for restricting the virus.
A second peak seems almost obvious without numerous restrictions. I'd like to know why people think it's not possible. Especially when some countries have already had a 2nd peak.
102 years ago though, Christ they didn’t even have paracetamol back then. We keep hearing it’s nothing like flu anyway, pandemic flu would apparently be far worse.
It’s a shame we can’t rely on any info out of China as they are a few months ahead of Europe, they would happily lose 5 million people and deny it ever happened, and the WHO sound like a shambles for praising the way they handled the outbreak initially.