Originally Posted by
The Lone Gunman
Each year before the football season begins, I get myself a copy of the Racing Post's annual Big Kick-Off publication. This excellent 72-page betting guide is free with the paper on the Tuesday before the campaign starts and covers all the major UK and European leagues. It's always interesting to look back at the bookmakers' pre-season prices after a campaign has finished and it turns out the big firms were pretty much spot on with their 2020/21 Championship predictions.
The three clear pre-season favourites for promotion were Watford (15/8), Norwich (9/4) and Brentford (9/4). Meanwhile, the clear favourites for relegation were Wycombe (1/2), Sheffield Wednesday (15/8) and Rotherham (2/1).
I've looked back at the pre-season prices for the previous five years and this hasn't even been close to happening before during that time. In 2019/20, the two favourites for promotion, Leeds and Fulham, did manage to go up, but the third-favourites (Cardiff City) failed to get promoted. Meanwhile, the prices for relegation were far more congested and only one of the three favourites (Charlton) ended up going down.
During the other four years the picture was much more mixed, with some genuine long shots gaining promotion (such as Norwich and Sheffield United in 2018/19, Cardiff in 2017/18 and Huddersfield in 2016/17), and some equally surprising relegations (for instance, Sunderland in 2017/18 and Wigan in 2016/17).
In terms of the pre-season prices for 2020/21, the biggest under-achievers were Nottingham Forest, who were generally priced to finish 5th or 6th, and Derby County, who were expected to finish 9th or 10th. Meanwhile, the major over-achievers were Barnsley, who were 16th in most bookies' lists, and Reading, who were priced to finish as low as 19th or 20th. The rest of the division ended up pretty much as expected. For instance, Cardiff were priced to finish 7th, Middlesbrough were expected to end up 10th, Millwall 11th, Preston 13th and Blackburn 15th.
In my opinion, the play-offs perfectly encapsulated what I believe was a seriously poor-quality Championship in 2020/21. Brentford, who were easily the third-best side in the division, eventually prevailed with something to spare. Bournemouth's squad contained plenty of obvious talent, but the Cherries rarely looked like they had the stomach for the fight, as demonstrated during the second leg of their semi-final. Meanwhile, a desperately ordinary Swansea side were able to maintain a top-six place from the early weeks of the campaign but were comfortably beaten by Brentford in the end, while Barnsley performed admirably to earn a play-off spot but clearly lacked genuine ability.
Thanks to the pandemic, I ended up watching more Championship football than usual during 2020/21 and much of it was poor fare. Most of the teams in the division looked weak by usual standards and very few individual players stood out. No doubt a lack of spectators had an effect on the overall quality of the entertainment, but by and large the football was grim. To me at least, the gap between the Premier League and the second tier has never looked bigger.
Hopefully, the circumstances created by Covid-19 will shake things up a bit during the coming months in terms of the transfer market and the football in the Championship in 2021/22 will not only improve, but the markets for promotion and relegation will be far more difficult for the bookmakers to predict.