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The mood of the country seems to be more anti Tory than it is pro Labour - that certainly seemed to be the main conclusion to draw from the local elections anyway. Sites like these
https://tacticalvote.co.uk/
https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/ta...t/conservative
make it easier for people considering voting tactically to find out how much it might affect the outcome in their constituency.
Another factor worth considering is how would people who voted tactically for a party to try and defeat the Conservatives feel if their choice of party then helped prop up a minority tory Government? I think the Lib Dems suffered because of that after the 2010 election.
I genuinely wish we had a strong liberal party and they and the labour party would team up to keep the Tories out
It's embarrassing to see that Ed davey and the previous chinless wonder farron saying after by elections or council elections that they are serious potential government in waiting
Bin that nonsense and team up with labour
IPSOS Say :
UK Voting Intention (change since March)
Labour 44% (-5), Conservatives 28% (+2), Liberal Democrats 13% (+2), Green Party 6% (nc), Other 8% (nc)
Our latest Political Monitor release of 23 May shows that 2 in 3 Britons expect Labour to win most MPs at the next General Election.
Yes, but there's a difference between voters opting to vote tactically and two separate political parties coming to an 'understanding' to either not put candidates up or not go canvassing in certain wards. Starmer is going to be the next PM, 100%, but if it turns out he's worked with the lib dems to help him get there, there will be another election within a year.
I can understand the first bit of your argument but why would whether Labour got found out working with the Lib-Dems rather than a softer "understanding" lead to another election within a year? If there is a pact or something looser identified after the election what are the drivers to trigger a new election?
I have listened to a couple of podcasts that did a serious analytical job on the local elections, and both concluded that there was a combination of more voters behaving tactically to get the Tories out, and the non-Tory parties getting into local pacts without the support or endorsement of their national organisations. That usually just came down to directing money/leaflets/posters/social media and canvassers towards the best anti-Tory outcome, not to standing down candidates.
The psephological (electoral number crunching) conclusions were that this is now happening on a bigger scale than ever before. I was convinced.