Quote Originally Posted by Eric Cartman View Post
Far too simplistic imo

The issue with this type of analysis is that we already have significant evidence that seats can swing massively in a general election. Political alegience isn't an immutable characteristic like skin colour so can't be analysed as such. After a loss like 2019, there is a lot of scope for a national swing from conservative to labour under the two main narratives of Corbyn and Brexit. This analysis also doesn't allow for labour losing voters who felt allied to Corbyn in 2017 and 2019. You also haven't allowed for smaller parties, for instance reform, Britain first and ukip took nearly 10% of the vote in Tamworth, where did that likely come from?

The likely reality is:

Yes some of the 2019 conservative vote stayed at home
Yes some of the conservative vote switched to labour
Yes there was some tactical centre left voting
Yes labour will have turned off some voters

The Tories will be confident they can at very least make a good stab at winning these seats back at a GE, the issue for them is that these are probably seats they need to hold to break 200 seats let alone a majority.
This is what I meant by crap opposition

If Starmer had anything about him there would be a genuine movement towards Labour rather than voting to get the tories out

Plenty of people are voting Labour to get the tories out , me included

But it's the rest that need to be convinced

And that's why I think it will either be a hung parliament with Labour doing a deal with smaller parties or a minority Labour administration

I would be happy with anything that doesn't include the conservatives