george galloway

[+ the native hipster]

labour, the ronny rosenthal of politics, no middle east ref intended

[Jordi Culé]

labour, the ronny rosenthal of politics, no middle east ref intended

One of his pledges to the good people of Rochdale is to get them a Primark. That must’ve been a massive vote winner.

I’ve been to Rochdale, I understand why it would be

[pipster]

Religion now deciding politics. It seems a mixture of socialist leaning voters plus the 30,000 ish Muslim vote have voted in a man that openly calls for the destruction of Israel - see video - and his audience.

Sir Keir must be feeling triumphant this morning as must some posters on here. Anti Semite 1 Others 0

[Eric Cartman]

Sir Keir must be feeling triumphant this morning as must some posters on here

Why and who?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Starmer has been thrown a very difficult ball here , a hospital pass

Add in his complete and utter incompetence and that of his front bench and the psychotic cult like Galloway and its a right battering

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Reform UK ?

If there's any comfort out of this mess they flopped

[pipster]

Starmer has been thrown a very difficult ball here , a hospital pass

Add in his complete and utter incompetence and that of his front bench and the psychotic cult like Galloway and its a right battering

Starmer has been shafted - he cant be seen to be supporting Palestine in the way he and most of Labour have been - he will be labelled anti semite. If he doesnt come out and support Palestine / Hamas he will lose a large majority of votes in the red wall Asian seats - who lets be honest are pro Palestine and Anti Israel.

He will try and flip flop his way through this, just like he did with his pledge of 28 billion on green policies - and then dropped it all.
Interesting times ahead for the lawyer - Im sure his personality will erm guide him....

Reform - Sludge what percentage of the vote did Reform UK they get ?

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Starmer has been shafted - he cant be seen to be supporting Palestine in the way he and most of Labour have been - he will be labelled anti semite. If he doesnt come out and support Palestine / Hamas he will lose a large majority of votes in the red wall Asian seats - who lets be honest are pro Palestine and Anti Israel.

He will try and flip flop his way through this, just like he did with his pledge of 28 billion on green policies - and then dropped it all.
Interesting times ahead for the lawyer - Im sure his personality will erm guide him....

Reform - Sludge what percentage of the vote did Reform UK they get ?

Anyone who thinks Labour will get a decent majority is living on the moon

I predict a hung parliament with Labour having just about the most seats and forming either a minority government or a coalition

He's absolutely hopeless , the Labour party is hopeless and they have shot themselves in the foot again

[Eric Cartman]

Starmer has been shafted - he cant be seen to be supporting Palestine in the way he and most of Labour have been - he will be labelled anti semite. If he doesnt come out and support Palestine / Hamas he will lose a large majority of votes in the red wall Asian seats - who lets be honest are pro Palestine and Anti Israel.

He will try and flip flop his way through this, just like he did with his pledge of 28 billion on green policies - and then dropped it all.
Interesting times ahead for the lawyer - Im sure his personality will erm guide him....

Reform - Sludge what percentage of the vote did Reform UK they get ?

I think your analysis is being guided by what you want to happen. The overall picture still suggests Labour are going to hoover up a load of seats they lost in 2019 due to Brexit/Corbyn, and there isn't going to be a master grifter like Galloway standing in every seat.

I am not seeing what I want to see from labour in terms of policy/direction but I don't think Starmer could have handled this shitshow in Rochdale much better from a general election campaign POV.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Starmer has been shafted - he cant be seen to be supporting Palestine in the way he and most of Labour have been - he will be labelled anti semite. If he doesnt come out and support Palestine / Hamas he will lose a large majority of votes in the red wall Asian seats - who lets be honest are pro Palestine and Anti Israel.

He will try and flip flop his way through this, just like he did with his pledge of 28 billion on green policies - and then dropped it all.
Interesting times ahead for the lawyer - Im sure his personality will erm guide him....

Reform - Sludge what percentage of the vote did Reform UK they get ?

Reform 6 percent

Share of vote down by 2 percent

[Eric Cartman]

Anyone who thinks Labour will get a decent majority is living on the moon

I predict a hung parliament with Labour having just about the most seats and forming either a minority government or a coalition

He's absolutely hopeless , the Labour party is hopeless and they have shot themselves in the foot again

Sludge this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for you then. Tie up some capital for 6 months or so for a guaranteed 3x

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/pol...ds=1.167249195

[A Quiet Monkfish]

I think your analysis is being guided by what you want to happen. The overall picture still suggests Labour are going to hoover up a load of seats they lost in 2019 due to Brexit/Corbyn, and there isn't going to be a master grifter like Galloway standing in every seat.

I am not seeing what I want to see from labour in terms of policy/direction but I don't think Starmer could have handled this shitshow in Rochdale much better from a general election campaign POV.

Sir Kneel and Labour will romp home in the G.E.

[Wales-Bales]

Sir Kneel and Labour will romp home in the G.E.

Capitalism is behind Keir.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

I think your analysis is being guided by what you want to happen. The overall picture still suggests Labour are going to hoover up a load of seats they lost in 2019 due to Brexit/Corbyn, and there isn't going to be a master grifter like Galloway standing in every seat.

I am not seeing what I want to see from labour in terms of policy/direction but I don't think Starmer could have handled this shitshow in Rochdale much better from a general election campaign POV.

I think you want starmer to win fairly well , at least

But I really see a troublesome run in ......made more difficult by last night's events .....and I think it's going to be a very marginal win overall .......and by that I mean winning the most seats not winning a majority

The people affected by tory policies deserve better but with the labour party and starmer are bust

[Eric Cartman]

I think you want starmer to win fairly well , at least

But I really see a troublesome run in ......made more difficult by last night's events .....and I think it's going to be a very marginal win overall .......and by that I mean winning the most seats not winning a majority

The people affected by tory policies deserve better but with the labour party and starmer are bust

I want Starmer to win primarily because the Tories have dragged politics so far into the gutter over the last few years that they need to go. There were always scandals and politicians that were in it for themselves but the near daily dog whistle shit stirring and blatant lying is on another level. No guarantees that will improve but I have a feeling it will.

It's a struggle to see what labour party you want sludge. From memory you hated Corbyn and both the 2017/19 manifestos, now you hate the fact that they have a strategy to not commit to policy (because it tends to get picked apart in the press). Struggling to see what you mean when you say that people deserve better.

My political preference is absolutely not clouding my judgement here, all evidence points towards a decent sized labour win and suggestions that the Rochdale result is a sign of some massive shift or problem for Starmer are misguided based on everything else we are seeing. People have been saying the polls will tighten for 2 years now, they haven't, and now the same people are clinging to tiny events as if they are huge in desperation.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

I want Starmer to win primarily because the Tories have dragged politics so far into the gutter over the last few years that they need to go. There were always scandals and politicians that were in it for themselves but the near daily dog whistle shit stirring and blatant lying is on another level. No guarantees that will improve but I have a feeling it will.

It's a struggle to see what labour party you want sludge. From memory you hated Corbyn and both the 2017/19 manifestos, now you hate the fact that they have a strategy to not commit to policy (because it tends to get picked apart in the press). Struggling to see what you mean when you say that people deserve better.

My political preference is absolutely not clouding my judgement here, all evidence points towards a decent sized labour win and suggestions that the Rochdale result is a sign of some massive shift or problem for Starmer are misguided based on everything else we are seeing.

People deserve a decent opposition

We clearly havnt got that as you yourself allude to

I don't think the high ratings in the polls are transferring onto the ballot box

I want the Tories out but a lot of voters seem to be lukewarm , incredible given the mess we are in

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

And Galloway looks like an utter wannabee gangster sad case in that silly hat

[Eric Cartman]

People deserve a decent opposition

We clearly havnt got that as you yourself allude to

I don't think the high ratings in the polls are transferring onto the ballot box

I want the Tories out but a lot of voters seem to be lukewarm , incredible given the mess we are in

I don't know how you could draw that conclusion given we have recently seen by-elections with enormous (near record/record) swings.

So what would make a 'decent opposition'?

[pipster]

I don't know how you could draw that conclusion given we have recently seen by-elections with enormous (near record/record) swings.

So what would make a 'decent opposition'?

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

For what it's worth all this has the same feel as both 1992 and 1997 election. 1992 Kinnock was parading around as the next PM - and lost. Blair wasnt so presumptuous and won by a landslide as Major had all the charisma of a wet sponge.

I think Sludge is probably right - minority win to Sir Keir or Lib/Lab pact.

Lab will blame everything on the previous Govt - and so the cycle begins - all over again.

Personally I'd love to see Drakeford or Born Guessing as PM to really demonstrate what a sh1tshow really looks like

[Dave Blue]

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

For what it's worth all this has the same feel as both 1992 and 1997 election. 1992 Kinnock was parading around as the next PM - and lost. Blair wasnt so presumptuous and won by a landslide as Major had all the charisma of a wet sponge.

I think Sludge is probably right - minority win to Sir Keir or Lib/Lab pact.

Lab will blame everything on the previous Govt - and so the cycle begins - all over again.

Personally I'd love to see Drakeford or Born Guessing as PM to really demonstrate what a sh1tshow really looks like

You aren’t satisfied that the current shitshow is leagues ahead than anything we have seen before? What would it take? Astonishing.

[Rjk]

Anyone who thinks Labour will get a decent majority is living on the moon

I predict a hung parliament with Labour having just about the most seats and forming either a minority government or a coalition

He's absolutely hopeless , the Labour party is hopeless and they have shot themselves in the foot again

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...tion_main.html

[jon1959]

It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.

Wrong. Although that is almost word-for-word what Tory Central Office sent out as speaker notes after they bombed!

The evidence from the previous two by elections was that a lot of 2019 Tory voters stayed at home, but that a significant number switched (most of them to Labour). Many previous Labour voters stayed at home too. That is what happens in by elections with reduced turn out when both major parties are toxic or uninspiring (sometimes both).

It was certainly not the case that everyone who voted Labour in 2019 turned out and that the swing was down to Tory voters who stayed at home to fire a warning shot at Sunak before they trot out to vote for him again at the next General Election.

[Rjk]

Wrong. Although that is almost word-for-word what Tory Central Office sent out as speaker notes after they bombed!

The evidence from the previous two by elections was that a lot of 2019 Tory voters stayed at home, but that a significant number switched (most of them to Labour). Many previous Labour voters stayed at home too. That is what happens in by elections with reduced turn out when both major parties are toxic or uninspiring (sometimes both).

It was certainly not the case that everyone who voted Labour in 2019 turned out and that the swing was down to Tory voters who stayed at home to fire a warning shot at Sunak before they trot out to vote for him again at the next General Election.

they are clutching at straws, everyone knows the tories are heading for a big defeat the way things currently stand

[jon1959]

Anyone who thinks Labour will get a decent majority is living on the moon

I predict a hung parliament with Labour having just about the most seats and forming either a minority government or a coalition

He's absolutely hopeless , the Labour party is hopeless and they have shot themselves in the foot again

Weather fantastic up here on the moon. Great views of Planet Earth!

The most recent polls (including the mega YouGov poll in the Telegraph of 14,000 people) have projected a Labour majority at the next GE of anything from 100 to 170 seats. A landslide.

I don't expect that. Even these Tories led by Sunak should be able to squeeze the Labour lead. But not even Labour lead by Starmer can blow it completely. I expect Labour to have 'a decent majority' of 30-50 seats.

I still intend to vote for the party led by the racist, cowardly, serial liar - but obviously without enthusiasm. Just opting for the least worst capable of forming a government. And voting for a sitting Labour MP who has been mostly OK.

The Galloway/Gaza effect could be a sizeable factor in narrowing Labour's lead. I don't see him holding Rochdale or any other insurgent candidates winning seats - but they will reduce the Labour vote in dozens of constituencies. And in response to the dull commentators who see it all through the prism of British Muslims - the disgust at Labour's Gaza (in fact Israel/Palestine) position goes way beyond one faith-based community. It won't be enough to change the outcome, but it could affect the size of the majority.

The threat of lost votes may even be enough for Labour's cynical number crunchers to change their position a bit more - but not from any point of principle or out of conviction.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/...tion_main.html

I have my doubts that the opinion polls , which the electoral calculus is based on , are accurate

I think the labour vote is over estimated and the tory vote ......incredible that people still back them .....is shy

I predict a very small labour majority at best