Quote Originally Posted by pipster View Post
It may have been a record 'swing' but the Labour vote count shifted by about 100 votes in the by election a fortnight ago. All that tells you is that the conservative stayed at home - whilst the same people that voted Lab last voted Labour this time. If the 'missing' conservative voters come out it's a different picture.
Wrong. Although that is almost word-for-word what Tory Central Office sent out as speaker notes after they bombed!

The evidence from the previous two by elections was that a lot of 2019 Tory voters stayed at home, but that a significant number switched (most of them to Labour). Many previous Labour voters stayed at home too. That is what happens in by elections with reduced turn out when both major parties are toxic or uninspiring (sometimes both).

It was certainly not the case that everyone who voted Labour in 2019 turned out and that the swing was down to Tory voters who stayed at home to fire a warning shot at Sunak before they trot out to vote for him again at the next General Election.