Newswires not giving any detail yet other than that the War Cabinet in Israel is preparing a response, but I’ll make a call early.

Out of the four scenarios I put forward, I said unless we have a ceasefire then Scenario 1 or 3 are the highest probability.

I now see enough signals here to see that we will move one to scenario 1: Neither Israel nor Iran back down and they will duke it out, with proxy backing.

On details it seems to be that Israel will now launch a big air attack against Iran. It will either be directly on Iranian territory, or they will attack Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) in Iraqi territory, or a combination of both.

Iraq is interesting. Because if you look at the map the attack against IRG in Iraq makes sense because it cuts off military supply lines between Iran, through Iraq, into areas such as Lebanon for Hezbollah, running through thr Shia-muslim “crescent”. The second reason is that Iraqi leaders have been speaking to the G7 in recent days. The only reason you would do this is to seek permission to fly into their airspace, or permission to land troops unopposed. This would annoy China, because China has been cutting out the US on oil deals and securing long term oil deals with Iraq, whilst supporting Tehran in influencing Iraw to allow IRG to operate in Iraq. So if Iraq grant Israel / US / G7 to land troops and / or use its airspace it is effectively selling Iran / China and siding with US / G7 / Israel - a double crossing! Either way I think a big air attack is coming, supported by missiles, on Iran or Iraq, or a combo.

Here is another reason why. Look at airlines decisions since Sunday / Monday. They have been briefed bt air traffic control for sure!!!

Germany’s Lufthansa has suspended its regular flights to and from Tel Aviv, Erbil, and Amman, up to and including Monday. Flights to Beirut and Tehran will remain suspended until at least Thursday.

KLM cancelled all flights to and from Tel Aviv until Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Dutch arm of Air France says.

Britain’s easyJet on Sunday paused operations to and from Tel Aviv. The carrier said in an emailed statement to Reuters that it will temporarily pause operations to and from Tel Aviv until April 21.

Wizz Air says it had cancelled most of its flights to and from Tel Aviv, Saturday through Monday.

Finnair has suspended operations in Iranian airspace until further notice, which may cause longer flight times on flights from Doha. A spokesperson said the Finnish carrier will reroute over Egypt, resulting in delays of a “few minutes.”


Eyes down. Tin hats on. Let’s see what tomorrow’s news brings.