Sky Prediction Of General Election

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Greens are like UKIP - a pressure group with claimed domain knowledge of a specific areas. But even if you agree with the Greens policies, they lack funding, are full of hippies (who don’t make good leaders) and lack any strategy. In that sense they suffer the same faultlines as Plaid Cymru.

UKIP and now Reform at least have one or two leaders who are powerful, have worked in high politics and are savvy with social media, PR and can draw on wealthy finance.

The Parliamentary system also prevents Reform or Greens making headway due to inability to win seats, despite being able to get votes. Labour have a chance to change that, but they have the odd strategic conundrum in that changing the voting system would allow Lib Dems, Greens and Reform to become more highly represented and votable. Turkeys and Christmas? I think Labour will talk reform but they won’t do it. It isn’t in their interest as a top two party to concede Parliamentary seats to minor parties who would then present new threats. Strategically it is best to have one enemy in the Conservatives, be able to be the leading opponents or winners.

Plaid? Plaid in my opinion have had 10-15 years of opportunity to get it right. I find Plaid interesting because if they were backed and advised by a professional team they should be able to be at least competitive with Labour and mimick SNP success. But they are like the Greens and Lib Dems in that they are full of teachers, intelligent academics, nice people with a vision that is like the SNP. But they are so weak as a political machine it is incredible. They have weak finances, a lack of data analysis, poor strategy, awful leadership, weak tactics, a lack of street fight, good campaign management, limp PR: all the stuff required to be professional winners. They have no sense of realpolitik either. They work with the SNP closely allegedly, but don’t appear to replicate any of their methods.

The SNP were no different to Plaid in that far from being Lefties they are hotpotch of centrists, Tartan Tories, Social Democrats and Socialists - who coalesce around Nationalism. Plaid has plenty of people who are moderate, centrists and fair but not woke. If Plaid positioned themselves in the moderate centre as Salmond and Sturgeon initially did (until she moves Left and woke), then sorted out the professional stuff I mentioned, then Plaid should be winning more often in Wales. But their soft idealism just doesn’t land with most Welsh people who want a combination of pragmatic solutions to every day problems, but with a Welsh flavour.Like the Greens and Lib Dems, they can’t seem to mature as a party beyond “enthusiastic students and sixth formers”.

Plaid are insane

Nationalism will never work

I would only vote for them if the only other option was the Tories

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Politicians shouldn't need stardust. That's how shallow our Country and the World has become.

I want my Politicians to be competent, honest, decent people who have the best interests of the Country at heart.

Then we need to get rid of political parties for a start

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

spot on, there was a debate on radio4 where the 'pollsters' all said pretty much the same thing. Locals turnout too low to predict, people vote for different reasons, and that you really need to look at the differential ie if Party A have not increased their previous vote but Party B have decreased their vote - it just means the other hasnt turned up - which is different when it comes to a GE.

If Starma gets in - it'll be like going back to the 1970's - for all the wrong reasons. Good for me though - as that usually means stupid public sector projects - massively inflated rates, project over runs etc

Apart from sky yesterday all the leading pollsters and analysts are predicting at least a 50 seat majority for Labour

As long as they are the biggest party that will do for me and we can go from there

[pipster]

Apart from sky yesterday all the leading pollsters and analysts are predicting at least a 50 seat majority for Labour

As long as they are the biggest party that will do for me and we can go from there

Me to - lot's of Labour spending recklessly it'll be just like the good ol days of Blair / Brown throwing money at large public sector projects which are just a financial black hole. Should be even easier with Rayner and Starma at the wheel :)

[Keyser Soze]

Plaid are insane

Nationalism will never work

I would only vote for them if the only other option was the Tories

I think “Nationalism” is too simplistic. It really depends what Nationalism flavour. If you mean Plaid’s current view of Nationalism=Independence I would agree at the moment. Demographics and lack of track record means they won’t get it.

But the SNP’s Nationalism does work in the sense they provided a non-independence platform for a Scottish party to run Scotland in the Scottish interests, and Scottish priorities. Sure they want independence but that was rejected. Scots of all hues: Socialists, centrists and Tartan Tories have backed the SNP to sort Scottish problems. So that formof Nationalism works for sure.

To me, that form of Nationalism could work for Wales, and to a degree Welsh Labour provide that. But in Wales there are not alternatives. Plaid’s critical error is asking for the keys to the Ferrari (independence) when they haven’t even established themselves as a credible party of Welsh government. So if they barked less about independence, and instead focused on effective local government, they could compete. Once they compete and establish themselves, only then can they ask for the keys - when a more indy-supportive youngsters become mainstream and cynical-elders pass away.

[Eric Cartman]

spot on, there was a debate on radio4 where the 'pollsters' all said pretty much the same thing. Locals turnout too low to predict, people vote for different reasons, and that you really need to look at the differential ie if Party A have not increased their previous vote but Party B have decreased their vote - it just means the other hasnt turned up - which is different when it comes to a GE.

I'll say it again for about the 20th time on here, you need more information to be able to form that assumption. Something like 30-40% of people report that they change the party they vote for from one election to the next so say for instance Party A got 10,000 votes last time and 10,000 votes this time, you are just guessing if you form the assumption that these must be the same people. Now if you have some kind of data around who they voted for last time, you have some kind of chance although that is self reported and people have a habit of lying if they voted for somebody they now don't like.

Any pollster that says any different is not worth listening to because they are just trying to find something to say to sound interesting.

[pipster]

I think “Nationalism” is too simplistic. It really depends what Nationalism flavour. If you mean Plaid’s current view of Nationalism=Independence I would agree at the moment. Demographics and lack of track record means they won’t get it.

But the SNP’s Nationalism does work in the sense they provided a non-independence platform for a Scottish party to run Scotland in the Scottish interests, and Scottish priorities. Sure they want independence but that was rejected. Scots of all hues: Socialists, centrists and Tartan Tories have backed the SNP to sort Scottish problems. So that formof Nationalism works for sure.

To me, that form of Nationalism could work for Wales, and to a degree Welsh Labour provide that. But in Wales there are not alternatives. Plaid’s critical error is asking for the keys to the Ferrari (independence) when they haven’t even established themselves as a credible party of Welsh government. So if they barked less about independence, and instead focused on effective local government, they could compete. Once they compete and establish themselves, only then can they ask for the keys - when a more indy-supportive youngsters become mainstream and cynical-elders pass away.

How are the SNP getting on ? - domestically - drug use, alcoholism, diet, obesity. They want rid of Westminster and want to under the control of a parliament even further away in Brussels. Wee Nicky husband arrested on a fraud charge, with Kranky junior not far behind into the dock. SNP are doing Labours job for them.

If we Wales would be better off in terms of GDP then we would have a chance. But being led by Plaid in charge - oh my giddy aunt. They are bent on every level, puts Gething to shame

[Hilts]

Id be wary of polls. Loads of Tories are too embarrassed to admit they are Tories.

[Eric Cartman]

How are the SNP getting on ? - domestically - drug use, alcoholism, diet, obesity. They want rid of Westminster and want to under the control of a parliament even further away in Brussels. Wee Nicky husband arrested on a fraud charge, with Kranky junior not far behind into the dock. SNP are doing Labours job for them.

If we Wales would be better off in terms of GDP then we would have a chance. But being led by Plaid in charge - oh my giddy aunt. They are bent on every level, puts Gething to shame

If GDP outweighed hope and the human addiction to feeling superior then the UK would still be in the EU. Nationalism doesn't seem to be dictated by economics but by emotion.

[Keyser Soze]

How are the SNP getting on ? - domestically - drug use, alcoholism, diet, obesity. They want rid of Westminster and want to under the control of a parliament even further away in Brussels. Wee Nicky husband arrested on a fraud charge, with Kranky junior not far behind into the dock. SNP are doing Labours job for them.

If we Wales would be better off in terms of GDP then we would have a chance. But being led by Plaid in charge - oh my giddy aunt. They are bent on every level, puts Gething to shame

Pipster.

I was not commenting on whether the SNP are good or bad, or even if they are delivering to their programme. But they have secured power and dominated for a decade. That ability to win power is the ultimate sign of how ‘strong’ a party is. How ‘good’ or ‘bad’ they are is then a matter of opinion.

In the case of Plaid they have never won a majority, or even close to it. That is where they can learn from the SNP. As an aside I agree that SNP are in a hole, but at least they have shown they can be a sustained political force.

[life on mars]

Well the 20% lead is now 9% based on stupid council bin controlling elections.

In some votes 11% of folk bothered so much for protestor voting.

Labour need the North East and Scotland to get a better majority.

Traditional Labour voters aren't aligned to Sir Kiers rich metropolitan party ,he knows that working-class no longer align he knows he has to be part Tory.

I think Boris would burst his bubble hence the relentless attacks they aimed at him .

He also knows Angela doesn't fit the champagne well off middle class Labour voters so under the bus she goes as they water down her workers rights, along with net zero, and anything else he can reverse or water down .

Lite Blair Tory government we will get .

He is no Blair , that man destroyed the Tories.. Sir Kier won't. ..

[life on mars]

How are the SNP getting on ? - domestically - drug use, alcoholism, diet, obesity. They want rid of Westminster and want to under the control of a parliament even further away in Brussels. Wee Nicky husband arrested on a fraud charge, with Kranky junior not far behind into the dock. SNP are doing Labours job for them.

If we Wales would be better off in terms of GDP then we would have a chance. But being led by Plaid in charge - oh my giddy aunt. They are bent on every level, puts Gething to shame

Nationalist parties just trade on people's hatred of other things , they have no other agenda .

Independence in Scotland is dead they got feck all to talk about now, corrupt as the Tories in my book .

Wales well what a strange country, loves being Welsh for sporting matters fearful of Nationalism via Plaid so they hide behind safe bet Labour. Aspiration is not a Welsh thing is it Unless you count in winning a Grand Slam or qualifying for the Euros , źzzzzzzzzzz

[the other bob wilson]

Well the 20% lead is now 9% based on stupid council bin controlling elections.

In some votes 11% of folk bothered so much for protestor voting.

Labour need the North East and Scotland to get a better majority.

Traditional Labour voters aren't aligned to Sir Kiers rich metropolitan party ,he knows that working-class no longer align he knows he has to be part Tory.

I think Boris would burst his bubble hence the relentless attacks they aimed at him .

He also knows Angela doesn't fit the champagne well off middle class Labour voters so under the bus she goes as they water down her workers rights, along with net zero, and anything else he can reverse or water down .

Lite Blair Tory government we will get .

He is no Blair , that man destroyed the Tories.. Sir Kier won't. ..

Starmer doesn’t need to destroy the Tories, they’re doing it themselves.

[the other bob wilson]

Looks like Labour has won the West Midlands Mayoral contest by as little as a thousand votes.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

Looks like Labour has won the West Midlands Mayoral contest by as little as a thousand votes.

And London

That West Midlands major was a polished turd

[JamesWales]

I learnt tonight that Andy Street ( the now former west midlands mayor) is the boyfriend of Michael Fabricant.

[Eric Cartman]

Lets just be clear, Labour are doing terribly, so awfully, despite all the results which show otherwise.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

I learnt tonight that Andy Street ( the now former west midlands mayor) is the boyfriend of Michael Fabricant.

That Micheal Fabricant is a right cant

[Doucas]

Me to - lot's of Labour spending recklessly it'll be just like the good ol days of Blair / Brown throwing money at large public sector projects which are just a financial black hole. Should be even easier with Rayner and Starma at the wheel :)

Which was the last government to not run a deficit? I'll give you a clue, it wasn't your lot.

Investing is good for the economy, which is why the UK is in such a state.

[jon1959]

I'm baffled about the results of the local elections after looking through various different media sources.

The BBC say: Tories - 474 seats; Labour + 186

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609732

The Guardian says: Tories - 397 seats; Labour + 232

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ts-for-england

They disagree on the seat totals for all the other parties too!

Locally in Sheffield the BBC say Labour gained 2; the Lib Dems lost 2, Independents (Gaza) gained 1 and the Tories lost their only seat and are again wiped out. But the local online paper (Sheffield Tribune) did a long and detailed post election analysis yesterday which claimed Labour gained 5 seats (and disagreed with the BBC on most of the other group totals too).

Bizarre!

[stevo]

What I want to know is - why are the Tories and media pointing the finger at Sunak regarding these results?

This is the first opportunity for most to vote since Partygate and Truss' debacle as PM. Have they forgotten this because I'm sure the public at large haven't.

[SLUDGE FACTORY]

What I want to know is - why are the Tories and media pointing the finger at Sunak regarding these results?

This is the first opportunity for most to vote since Partygate and Truss' debacle as PM. Have they forgotten this because I'm sure the public at large haven't.

Sunak is the fall guy

I see that poison dwarf suella braverman was squealing on the news today clearly pushing for the Tories to appeal to the right wing voters

But I think moderate Tories have ditched them and the nutters are going to vote reform

Which is great for Labour

[JamesWales]

I'm baffled about the results of the local elections after looking through various different media sources.

The BBC say: Tories - 474 seats; Labour + 186

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-68609732

The Guardian says: Tories - 397 seats; Labour + 232

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ts-for-england

They disagree on the seat totals for all the other parties too!

Locally in Sheffield the BBC say Labour gained 2; the Lib Dems lost 2, Independents (Gaza) gained 1 and the Tories lost their only seat and are again wiped out. But the local online paper (Sheffield Tribune) did a long and detailed post election analysis yesterday which claimed Labour gained 5 seats (and disagreed with the BBC on most of the other group totals too).

Bizarre!

I think the BBC figures are right. It's a rare example of the guardian skewing reality to suit the Tories!

Aside from the frustration I have with party politics, I do love all the graphs and charts from this stuff, but local elections are nothing like general elections or senedd elections etc. The numbers are so skewed on where elections take place etc that it's hard to get too excited bar the key takeaways of Labour doing well, Tories bad etc

[Gofer Blue]

I think the BBC figures are right. It's a rare example of the guardian skewing reality to suit the Tories!

Aside from the frustration I have with party politics, I do love all the graphs and charts from this stuff, but local elections are nothing like general elections or senedd elections etc. The numbers are so skewed on where elections take place etc that it's hard to get too excited bar the key takeaways of Labour doing well, Tories bad etc

I have no axe to grind as they say, as I have no confidence that either the Tories or Labour have a magic bullet solution to the malaise in the country. I agree with the above - it is ridiculous to try to predict the outcome of a general election based on local election results especially when the turn out was so low in most cases. I haven't got the time or the energy to look back to the previous local election results and see how the actual numbers of people who voted along party lines. I did it for the last couple of by-elections and the figures were quite enlightening.

[jon1959]

I think the BBC figures are right. It's a rare example of the guardian skewing reality to suit the Tories!

Aside from the frustration I have with party politics, I do love all the graphs and charts from this stuff, but local elections are nothing like general elections or senedd elections etc. The numbers are so skewed on where elections take place etc that it's hard to get too excited bar the key takeaways of Labour doing well, Tories bad etc

I agree with most of that. Low turnout makes GE predictions based on the Local Election votes a nonsense. I think the rolling polls - maybe adjusted for a late Tory upturn - are the best guide.

But even with a low turnout it is interesting (and relevant for the GE) to see where Reform are damaging the Tories and where the Greens and various smaller left groups and independents are eating into the Labour vote.