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Probably not far off that if we keep up our away form!!
That begs another question. 23 games left, 11 are at home. If our form against the top 6 continues (defeats), we can discount 4 home games against Spurs, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool. That's then requiring 24 points from the remaining 7 home games. That's quite a challenge for obvious reasons, so we will need to pick up a result or two against the big boys and get a win or two on the road.