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What is your guess, dressed up as analysis then ?Originally Posted by Eric Cartman
The figures:- For Wellingborough
13,737 voted Labour in 2019 General Election
13,844 voted Labour in 2024 by by-election
So an increase 104 votes
So Labour need to find out why there wasnt a massive increase in their vote and the conservatives need to find out where their vote went to - which seems pretty obvious to me.
I don't have access to the information required to make an educated guess, maybe the parties do via private polling in the runup or just an indication from party members canvassing on the ground in each seat.
Unless you know how the demography of these voters and how they have have moved between parties since the last election, you are just pissing in the wind. This is especially true this time around as the political landscape has changed so much since (Corbyn, Boris, Brexit etc.)
I tend to only really look at MRP polling as sample size is huge (compared to traditional polls) and that methodology has had very good results. The most recent one has the conservatives in major major trouble.
Why can’t I get the term “desperate times, desperate measures” out of my mind while reading the above?
You’d be better off trying to find out why the Toryvote in recent by elections has collapsed so much more under Sunak compared to Major pre 1997.
https://kellnerpolitics.com/2024/02/...eally-tell-us/
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