Originally Posted by
Eric the Half a Bee
2 games to go for everyone, so another recap.
Group A - France's draw against Luxembourg has opened the group up a bit. They face Bulgaria next time around and defeat is likely to see them lose top spot to Sweden. Bulgaria need a win or their chances will have gone. Netherlands should win in Belarus but they need a hatful or they'll have no chance of overtaking Sweden when they meet in their final match. In terms of qualification, France are still probably favourites and will surely win the group if they win in Bulgaria. Sweden are favourites to finish above the Netherlands even if they lose in Amsterdam. 2nd place to have a minimum of 19 points, 20 more likely, 22 if Sweden and France win their last two.
Group B - No chance of catching 2nd.
Group C - Germany probable winners. Northern Ireland's win over the Czech Republic means a win in either of their last two games would put them above Wales in terms of playoffs. They face Germany at home and Norway away.
Group E - Big game on October 5th, Montenegro vs Denmark. Poland would be expected to win in Armenia. Montenegro visit Poland on the last round of fixtures. 2nd could have an unlikely 17 points if Montenegro vs Denmark is a draw and they both lose their final games. 19 is more likely but if one team wins both then 2nd will have 22 points.
Group F - England virtually assured of winning the group (and an early exit from the World cup as is tradition). Scotland face Slovakia and Slovenia - failure to beat Slovakia ends their chances given Slovakia play Malta next at home. Slovenia travel to England. 2nd place to have 18 points minimum (barring a freak result between Slovakia and Malta), 21 points if Slovakia win in Scotland, otherwise Scotland need to beat Slovenia and Slovakia to overtake the Slovaks, giving 20 points.
Group G - No chance of catching 2nd
Group H - Belgium already qualified. Bosnia host Belgium next, then travel to Estonia. Greece face Cyprus away then host Gibraltar. A Cyprus win against Greece might not be enough given Bosnia's final fixture. 2nd place to have possibly 17 points if Belgium win in Bosnia and Greece don't win in Cyprus. Otherwise Greece may get to 19 points or, should Bosnia somehow beat the runaway leaders, 2nd will have 20 points.
Group I - Try quantum physics instead. Unless Iceland and Croatia win their final two games each, 2nd will have a maximum of 20 points. Probably less.
With Serbia winning tonight, it's probable they've won the group. Because of Ireland's loss tonight, we can afford a draw in one of our final two games. In terms of ensuring we're one of the top 8 2nd place teams, 18 points might be enough to get a playoff place, but I think that means relying on too many results going our way. 20 points would almost certainly be enough for a playoff place. To get that we'd need to win in Georgia, which then means Ireland have to win in Cardiff, forcing them to have a go at us.
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